Older Alternatives My Friends

BALTIMORE, MD., May 15, 2012—So Bodemeister’s in, all the other speed is out, including the stressed out juvenile champion, and the Kentucky Derby runnerup will be loose on the Preakness lead at Old Hilltop come Saturday.

It finally stopped raining here and it was going to be beautiful through Saturday, but now there’s a 30 percent chance of thundershowers for the second jewel in the crown.

But the locals tell me this is the Mason-Dixon Line for weather, meaning it can resemble any other Delaware Valley-based area, which basically means a Northeastern U.S. weather pattern.

Or, apparently, it can be a little like Florida, meaning that the sun can be shining at Pimlico Race Course while golf-ball sized hail rains down on Ellicott City. I’m holding a good thought.

I’ll be watching the Yanks and Birds live on Tuesday night for two reasons: Can’t afford Yankees home games, and I’m betting my buddy that Doug O’Neill won’t one-hop it to the plate when he throws out the first pitch at Camden Yards. I insisted on, and got, 8-5.

But man does not live by Preakness alone. There are some older horses lurking about, such as the horse currently ranked 4th in the NTRA open poll, Oaklawn Park Handicap champion Alternation, the headliner in Friday’s resuscitated Pimlico Special.

Is he a one-track wonder or has developed very well for 3 to 4? Is Bodemeister going to regress? Will Doug O’Neill get the job done tonight? These are important questions.

Deja Vu? Mark Valeski Set for Bigger Game in Belmont

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 12, 2012—It seems like yesterday, only now it’s 32 years later. Every time I think about the Peter Pan Stakes, it’s 1979, the quintessential Peter Pan, a race that conjures up what this mile and an eighth exercise is supposed to be.

Nine furlongs at Big Sandy with only one turn to negotiate. And that means the most useful weapon a Thoroughbred can own if it wants to win this race; demon speed. He can use it any way he wants, just as long as he gets the job done fast.

This does not mean front-running speed, of course, because a whole gang of very good horses have won this race that weren’t strict front runners, horses such as Gallant Man and Slew o’ Gold, Proud Truth and A. P. Indy.

But in ’79 it was Coastal, brilliant enough to win the race with authority in 1:47 flat. So what, he was supposed to come back in 12 days and prevent the mighty Spectacular Bid from winning the Belmont Stakes and a sweep of the Triple Crown?

As McEnroe might say, you cannot be serious!

Three Belmont Trainers, Horses, Don’t Need No Stinking Lasix

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 13, 2012—In the wake of Saturday’s Peter Pan Stakes, it’s like that comparisons will be made between the tactics of Right To Vote in the local prep for the Belmont and Bodemeister’s attempted heist of the Kentucky Derby.

Each set an excruciating, enervating pace, and each hung on tenaciously for a game second-place finish. But there was one stark difference however. Right To Vote, even though he had a Right To Lasix, didn’t race on furosemide in the Peter Pan.

Right To Vote’s owner, Bill Casner, is making a statement: Check that, Casner already has made his statements on the subject of raceday medication. What Casner is doing now is practicing what he believes.

Casner, his personal views notwithstanding, must also know that Lasix does not extend racing careers. In fact, the opposite is true. Otherwise explain why the number of starts a horse makes per year is half of what it was 30 years ago, when Lasix use became a raceday standard.

Interestingly, the Eoin Harty-trained Right To Vote was not the only runner on Saturday’s Belmont program to race Lasix free. Actually there were three others, as “Trackfacts” co-host Nick Kling pointed out on his Sunday morning cablecast.

How Greed Cost CDI Stockholders…and One Oaks Day Horseplayer

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 8, 2012—Despite racing’s issues, the popularity of the Kentucky Derby continues to grow: To attract more than 165,000 spectators is a testimony to an event, the Derby Experience. And many of them brought money; the $12.3 million bet on-track also was a new record.

And gambling America loves ‘America’s Race’ card, too. All-sources wagering was up a whopping 13.2 percent to $187-million; heady numbers considering the game’s recent travails and an economy that’s improved but far from back to pre-crash levels. A record $113-million was bet on the Derby alone.

But the numbers could have been better were it not for shortsightedness and greed. I’m sure Churchill Downs Inc. will say Dime Superfectas are not available on Derby weekend because it would mean chaos at the betting windows, the tourists creating insanely long lines and shut-outs; counter-productive.

But there are ways around this, such as additional self-service machines specifically dedicated to Dime Super wagering, or designated windows at the end of each betting bay for Dime Super betting only.

If it wasn’t about greed why would the minimum Super bet go from a dime to a dollar on the two biggest days of the year including the Breeders’ Cup championships? Here’s an example of how CDI Inc. cost its shareholders, and one horseplayer, money.

2004 all over again?

I paid a little more attention this time around. Heading into the Derby, my Paulick Derby Index picks included Thunder Moccasin. All right for Janurary, but when he was subsequently taken off the trail, I kept him on, because, well, I didn’t pay attention.

Good Ol’ Pete called me one day and said, “Hey! You gotta take Thunder Moccasin off your Top Ten list. He was taken off the trail months ago. Besides, he’s a sprinter!”

“Oh.”

Which brings us to the 137th Preakness Stakes. So I’m following the notes. Liking what I hear. Feel I’ve got a good handle. Good Ol’ Pete texts me, “Who’s your Preakness winnah?”

“Zeiterholm.”

“Wow! Your pick is a horse that’s actually running in the race! Way to finally move on from Thunder Moccasin!”

“Thunder Moccasin’s not running? Who you got in the Preakness?”

“I’ll Have Another.”

“No, really … ”

When Twitter Soared

I’ve grown to love Twitter and social media as a form. It cannot be appreciated or beneficial, really, until it is first enjoyed. I started Twitter in 2009 to give some insight into my reporting for Six Weeks. Other stuff here and there. Lately, I’ve picked it up with more diligence talking about freelancing, writing, and horse racing.

This past Saturday (Worse. Derby. Result. Ever.) I was drinking mint juleps and playing an unruly amount of Wiffle Ball (Tommy and I won 18-8) instead of tweeting. If Wiffle Ball were made available to others, perhaps Twitter wouldn’t have been aflutter, but Twitter soared with over 264,000 tweets Saturday. This marks a 633 percent jump from Derby 137, when Animal Kingdom won with only 36,000 tweets.

According to Blue Fin Labs, the breakdown for Saturday’s tweeting had four distinct spikes and one marked dip.

Points vs Earnings for Derby Eligibility: Grading the Road Ahead

By Indulto

The $766.40 trifecta payout for $.50 on the 2012 Kentucky Derby suggests that very few fans found the first place finishers of the five final G1 Derby preps a solid foundation for constructing their tickets. The fact that three of them finished in the top three on Saturday is a triumph for points-based eligibility advocates. The Team Valor plan put in motion again this year was the exception as they finished fourth; coming from last place in points and 17th in earnings-based eligibility rankings.


I’d never play poker with Barry Irwin who played a pat hand – waiting for others to drop out, minimizing his colt’s exposure to the hazards of racing while optimizing the effort to accumulate earnings. His Graham Cracker-Jack still had the horse ready for 10 furlongs. I predict the Spiral Stakes will be over-subscribed next year with copy-cats. That another synthetic surface victor finished third probably cements that strategy.

The curse of not running as a 2yo is still alive and well. Some blame the presence of an entrant with an absence of distance races in its resume, but the impact of the supernatural is more likely found in the severe case of second-it suffered by his owner who sold a minority share of the horse in the nick of time.

Derby Day Provides a Tremendous Opportunity

By Cary Fotias

New York City, May 1, 2012--If value is your game, this year’s Kentucky Derby is right up your alley. No recent Derby has offered the betting opportunities that are sure to be present this Saturday.

The Derby field is often competitive but I have never seen one this deep. Some years the race is competitive but the horses aren’t that good.

This year, however, not only is the field super competitive but the horses are above average in talent. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a few develop into stars.

Union Rags has deservedly gotten a lot of press; Bodemeister was dominant in Arkansas; undefeated Gemologist gamely took the Wood; Creative Cause always runs his race; Take Charge Indy has Calvin.

That’s not all of it: Santa Anita Derby winner I’ll Have Another has proven his mettle; Alpha’s worked well and looks back in top shape and Daddy Nose Best impressed taking the Mine That Bird route for Asmussen.

Only two talented colts might have something to prove: Dullahan must show that he can run just as well on dirt and Hansen might have distance limitations. We’d be surprised if the favorite is under 5/1.

Equiform data might not always point out the winner but the methodology is sure to put you on horses that offer wagering value.