Wagering for Fun and Profit

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY

September 1, 2010

Dear Diary,

Have you ever made a bet where, if you lost, you wouldn’t be too upset? In fact, you might even enjoy the fact that one particular rival won? It’s a lot like sanity insurance, actually.

What am I talking about? OK, last things first. Sanity insurance is when, as a public handicapper, you don’t have near enough the money to play a Pick Six given the number of permutations required. What to do?

Simple. You make a straight $2 Pick Six on the six horses you selected to win each race in print, on the air, wherever. After all, could anyone live with themselves if they picked six straight winners sequentially and not collect?

It can be done but, trust me, it’s neither good for your self-esteem nor your confidence level.

There’s nothing worse than someone thanking you for making them semi-rich as you walk away with your bankroll between your legs. Ergo, for peace of mind, you buy sanity insurance for $2.

An emotional hedge is a variation on this theme. Say you’re a huge Yankees or Lakers fan. Given their reputations, national followings, and present skill levels, they are installed prohibitive favorites to win a championship.

But as a handicapper you know that 3-1 is a public price meant to attract action on both sides but unrealistic because the opponent has a better chance to win than the odds indicate.

So you take 3-1 on the underdog against your team for $100. If the underdog wins, you collect $300, knowing you made a good business decision because the odds were skewed for the purpose of book balancing, a.k.a. bookmaking.

Time Has Come to Send Rachel Home

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY--

August 29, 2010

Dear Diary,

The time has come to formally introduce Rachel Alexandra to Curlin. There is nothing else to prove. All that there was to prove was proven last year.

That proof resulted in a Horse of the Year title. That honor is hers in perpetuity.

The time for guessing what‘s next, or what‘s wrong, is over. There are no more excuses.

In three of her five starts this year, the fire that burned so intently last year was absent. That fire now is more of a slow ember.

What remains is the memory of her singularly ferocious passion to run, the kind of passion that only the great ones have.

Her disappointing defeat in today’s Personal Ensign came over the same track 51 weeks after the greatest triumph of her life, the one that earned the sport‘s highest honor.

Rachel Alexandra can win more races, but she can’t be Rachel anymore. For the pleasure she gave her connections, and her handlers, and her fans, she deserves to be just horse now.

As if Rachel Alexandra could ever be just a horse.

Rocky VII

I recall a story of a recent defeat that was more disheartening and sickening than a Lady Gaga display — caught at the wire with thousands of fans hanging like icicles on every stride.

I watched the race from atop a chair in the restaurant at which I worked. I told my tables that, to loosely reference “Good Will Hunting,” ‘I had to see about a colt.”

It was the 2004 Belmont Stakes. That’s right. Smarty Jones. This guy had no problem getting 10 furlongs. In all honesty, he had no problem getting 12 furlongs.

Right now he’s having a hard time getting laid.

Once upon a time his stud fee was $100,000. When Birdstone, the horse who beat him in the Belmont Stakes, went to stud he sold his swimmers for $10,000. Paul Krugman take note: don’t follow the Dow, follow Smarty’s stud fee.

The Irish Car Bomb

The Irish Car Bomb

What he’s doing is harder than the Triple Crown.

What he’s doing is harder than Elin Nordegren in divorce court.

What’s he’s doing is harder than a day in the sweat box with a rubber suit and the company of Rush Limbaugh.

He’s Paddy O’Prado and he’s one win away from winning the Grand Slam of Grass.

This is hitting a single off the Rays, a double off the Cardinals, a triple off the Red Sox, and a home run against the Yankees. This is seven Tour de France’s in a row ... only more impressive.

Racing’s Savior (Age 11)

DEL MAR, Calif., August 31, 2010--On Pacific Classic day, my wife Pat and I sat in the Del Mar clubhouse next to a young girl and her grandparents. Pat said she was about 12, I said 10, so let's make her 11. Like the intrepid reporter I am, I never got her name, so let's call her Kelly. Had she been around 20 or more years ago, racing should have bottled her, and anyone like her, and saved them for the many rainy days ahead. The train has all but left the station for this once grand old game, but it is still a delight, watching someone getting awestruck by these wonderful animals while learning the sport at the knee of her elders.

"Kelly" has been a quick learner, believe me. Many girls her age see horses as pets, faithful riding companions, but Kelly's interest went beyond that. She had neatly folded her track program inside a smart blue wallet, and brought a large paper clip to mark her place as Del Mar's card moved along. As the numbers of the first four finishers went up on the tote board, and the payoffs were posted, she dutifully recorded them in her program. She looked like the kind of girl who would have brought a backup pen, had the first one gone dry.

PPs and the Pacific Classic

LOS ANGELES, August 24, 2010--I love poring over past performances of old warhorses that run on and on, like a Russian novel. John Henry, of course, was the nonpareil. I showed Lefty Nickerson, one of the early trainers of John Henry, his lifetime PPs once, and Lefty looked at the sheet and laughed. "Hey, look at this," Nickerson said, pointing to the fourth race of an 83-race career. "Larry Munster fell off John Henry once."

Even if he doesn't run on August 28 in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar (the Del Mar Handicap is a softer spot the next day), the early presence of Unusual Suspect in the richer race has given me a chance to peruse the PPs of a doughty 6-year-old who has at least been there, while not doing that. It has taken Unusual Suspect 50 races to win eight, and he has never won anything more important than a Grade 3, but he has somehow put almost $850,000 in the till. Any horse who pays for his keep in this fragile business is a horse to be cherished.

September’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS

Like our waistlines after a finger good lickin’ Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL barge onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail. Which ones can we count on and which ones figure to belly up? Check it out.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years. Enjoy…

DO IT TO ME ONE MORE TIME

Sometimes the price you’re asked to pay for success is truly a bargain. And in today’s economy, we’ll take any and all bargains we can find.

Take the case of NFL teams that have just enjoyed winning back-to-back home games during the pre-season. One might think these teams are primed for a letdown. However, as one of our favorite football analysts, Lee Corso, would say, “Not so fast my friend!” That’s because teams in this role are a solid 38-22-1 ATS when taking to the road off a pair of home victories in the pre-season since 1983. Better yet, send them away off a double-digit win and they are a 22-7 ATS winning proposition. Dress these same guys up as dogs and they become 17-4 ATS.