Thursday, April 20, 2017
Kentucky Derby points system gets it right
The Kentucky Derby qualifying system took some hits in its first few seasons. Arguably, it got it almost perfectly right this year. When the gate is loaded on May 6, as many as 16 or 17 starters of the 20 starters will have wins in points-worthy prep races. Still, there is room for minor tweaking. The 10-point races early in the new year need to be at least doubled in value. There is no stronger argument for this than the fact that the first three finishers in the Holy Bull--Irish War Cry, Gunnevera and Classic Empire--are likely to be among the top four or five betting favorites in Louisville.
The system works! How many things in society can we say that about? However short the list is, add the Kentucky Derby qualifying points to it.
At the end of the 26 qualifying races in 2017 and before attrition sets in, 20 hopefuls have at least 40 points. Conquest Mo Money also earned 40 points in the Arkansas Derby but is not nominated and will not be. His connections say they will wait for the Preakness.
Four horses won two qualifiers: Gormley (Sham and Santa Anita Derby), Irish War Cry (Holy Bull and Wood) and Girvin (Risen Star and Louisiana Derby) are set to go on May 6. El Areeb, who took the 10-point Jerome and Nashua, has gone into the shop for repairs.
Fifteen of the current top 16 will enter the Churchill Downs starting gate with a win in a prep race. The exception, State of Honor, earned his berth with a second or third in three qualifying stakes.
A compelling case cannot be made for any of those on the waiting list. A mild argument could be mounted for Royal Mo, currently 24th. He is the only points-race winner (the Robert B. Lewis, in which eventual Blue Grass winner Irap ran second) still not in the starting gate and he still might get in.
Chad Brown has indicated Cloud Computing, one of those in the final four to qualify, will also wait for the Preakness, according to reports. This would allow Untrapped to join the field and move Royal Mo to third alternate. Todd Pletcher is reportedly wavering on Malagacy, who got the staggers in the final yards of the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby. Pletcher always has felt Malagacy would be a superior sprinter/miler. If Pletcher opts out with him, second alternate Lookin at Lee joins the field.
The Racing Form has reported UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow is expected to make the trip stateside but there has been no definitive statement to that effect. If he comes 16 of the 20 starters will have won a major prep.
While the points system functioned ideally this season, there is room for improvement. Another look should be taken at doubling the value of 10-point races early in the season. Gormley, Irish War Cry and Girvin each won one of these before tacking on 100-point scores in the final stage.
The first three finishers in the 10-point Holy Bull were Irish War Cry, Gunnevera and Classic Empire. They will likely be among the top four or five favorites in Louisville. So the calendar should not be the ultimate determination of the value of a race.
What would be wrong with the 2-year-old points races staying at 10 to the winner and the early 3-year-old stakes offering 20?
One other tweak: the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile should be â€śWin and Youâ€™re In.â€ť Itâ€™s the only true championship race for the generation prior to the Derby.
More is more
Itâ€™s always reassuring when someone respected echoes an opinion you have been espousing.
Cot Campbellâ€™s Dogwood Stable transformed thoroughbred ownership by introducing the concept of multi-participant partnerships in 1969. Over the years, he has raced hundreds of top quality runners and brought countless new blood to the sport. He opined in a guest column in the Thoroughbred Daily News, â€śIn a game that has its own sizeable set of challenges, it is not desirable that the runners keep trending towards less racing. I hate that. And it will be a trend that will be difficult to reverse.â€ť
Campbell offered that if a young trainer going out on his own were to take out an ad saying that he does not think the average racehorse runs as often as he could, so the philosophy of his stable will be horses are going to run more and train less, while getting the best possible care, he would become instantly in demand. â€śThere is a message that much of the horse world has hungered for,â€ť Campbell wrote. â€śI believe that young man or woman would be swamped with business.â€ť
All I can add is â€śAmen.â€ť
Keeneland close to perfect
Keeneland has a deserved reputation of being a showplace of thoroughbred racing, the track that does things right. I donâ€™t have a bucket list but one of the things I want to do before descending to the wrong side of the turf course is to visit the Lexington, Kentucky track. This said, even the best can be made better.
The spring meeting, which is breaking records, provides three examples. The decision to exile will-pays for daily doubles, pick threeâ€™s and other exotic bets to a quick flash on the TV screen is not well thought out. Most wagering is now done at simulcast facilities where races from many tracks are telecast, sometimes simultaneously.
Speaking from experience, itâ€™s easy to miss Keeneland will-pays because another race was in progress. The unfortunate aspect is Keeneland fixed what wasnâ€™t broken. The former system of displaying will-pays on a constant cycle was one of the most useful in racing. Keeneland won awards for its simulcast presentation.
The use of white saddle cloths in stakes races is a throwback to earlier times but it makes no more sense than going back to the days when Keeneland didnâ€™t have a race caller. Bettors have become accustomed to looking for colored saddle cloths to follow their horses. In stakes races, this is beyond challenging. It doesnâ€™t help that at most simulcast sites, the audio of the race call is turned off.
The counter-argument is there are always the racing silks. However, so many are similarly colored this isnâ€™t as easy as it can be made out to be, especially when the field is on the backstretch.
The front-loading of major stakes is essential in the fall to fit into Breedersâ€™ Cup preparations. There is no compelling need for this in the spring. The Blue Grass, of course, has to be four weeks out from the Derby to appease contemporary training techniques. This also would apply to the filly equivalent, the Ashland.
Other major Keeneland stakes would be better spaced out throughout the short session. As it is, there are more than a half dozen stakes the first weekend and almost that many again the following weekend. Then just three are spaced out over the final two weeks.
One justification could be that these races are scheduled to serve as stepping stones for the plethora of stakes on Oaks and Derby days at Churchill. But with the exception of the Derby and Oaks, the Keeneland stakes are as prestigious or more so than anything offered at Churchill Downs the first weekend in May.
The will-pay and white saddle cloth issues can and should be dealt with before the fall session. The spring stakes schedule can be adjusted next year. Keeneland owes it to its fans, local and simulcast, to do the right thing by them.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Pletcher on verge of a first-time Derby experience
Todd Pletcher's uncharacteristic 1-for-45 record in the Kentucky Derby has been well reported. Too well reported, the seven-time Eclipse winning trainer must feel. Amazingly, when you consider the great horses he has developed, not one of the 45 was the post-time favorite. That could change this year with Always Dreaming. However, Mark Casse, who will get Juvenile Champion Classic Empire back to the races in the Arkansas Derby, feels a big effort Saturday will make his colt the favorite on the first Saturday in May.
An astonishing statistic emerged from a National Thoroughbred Racing Association conference call the other day. Todd Pletcher has been oft criticized for his less than stellar record in the Kentucky Derby. He has sent out 45 starters in Americaâ€™s most famous horse race and has won with only Super Saver.
The surprising factoid is not one of the 45 has been the post-time favorite. Think of all the 3-year-olds with gilded credentials, some undefeated going into the first Saturday in May, Pletcher has brought to Churchill Downs. But the public has always found a non-Pletcher contender they liked more.
That could change this year. If the Derby were being run this Saturday rather than May 6, itâ€™s likely Florida Derby champion Always Dreaming would break from the starting gate as the peopleâ€™s choice. â€śIt would be sort of uncharted waters for us,â€ť Pletcher said.
It would represent a triumph of sorts even before the race is run. â€śThere would be a sense of accomplishment to get a horse there that would be considered the favorite.â€ť
Pletcher feels Always Dreaming is deserving of the honor and has the ability to justify it. â€śWeâ€™re very pleased with the way Always Dreaming has progressed all winter and spring. We were very excited to run him in the Florida Derby and we were even more excited after the race and with the way he has come out of it and trained since.â€ť
Last Saturday's Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby did nothing to knock Always Dreaming off the top perch. If anything, they solidified his status.
Maybe second choice, too
Thereâ€™s a chance Pletcher could have the favorite and second choice if Malagacy runs big in the Arkansas Derby. Among other things, the son of Shackleford represents this yearâ€™s threat to the curse of Apollo, since he didnâ€™t make his debut until Jan. 4 at Gulfstream.
But if the Cubs can break a 108-year spell, it might be time for a thoroughbred to snap the 135-year streak of a horse who didnâ€™t start as a 2-year-old winning the Kentucky Derby.
Ironically, Malagacy was ticketed to run as a juvenileâ€”in a claiming race. He showed no signs in his early training of being exceptionally talented so Pletcher entered him with a $75,000 tag late last year.
In a stroke of bad fortune/good fortune, the day Pletcher dropped Malagacyâ€™s name into the box, the colt came down with a temperature and had to be scratched.
â€śPart of the reason we considered running him for maiden claiming first time out was he hadnâ€™t shown us much but his lazy side in the morning. It was a blessing that he got the temperature and we had to scratch him. It was interesting that after that, heâ€™s shown to be far better.â€ť
Heâ€™s perfect, in fact, three-for-three as his distances extended from 5 Â˝ furlongs to 6 Â˝ then a mile and a sixteenth in the Rebel.
â€śOne of Malagacyâ€™s strengths is heâ€™s got a high cruising speed. He proved in the Rebel that heâ€™s capable of carrying it around two turns. Whatâ€™s impressed me the most about him is as fast as he is, heâ€™s also very tractable and ratable, willing to sit behind horses when necessary," Pletcher said.
"Javier (Castellano) has commented that heâ€™s kind of a rare horse in that you can ask him to leave the gate and show you some speed, then you can quickly turn him off after you do that. Thatâ€™s one of the reasons why weâ€™re optimistic that heâ€™ll handle a little more ground.â€ť
Casse touts Classic Empire
Mark Casse, who will saddle Eclipse juvenile champion Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby, would like to file a dissenting opinion on who the Derby favorite will be. â€śI may be a little biased but I have to think if our horse runs really well and wins, heâ€™s going to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.â€ť
There are a couple of big ifâ€™s there, especially given Classic Empireâ€™s eventful winter.
It started with a non-menacing third in the Holy Bull, prior to which he became unglued in the walking ring and going to the post. A foot abscess--which might have contributed to his antics at Gulfstream--back issues and, when all seemed well, a refusal to work at the Palm Meadows training center. Thus, the Holy Bull was his only start in 2017.
Casse knows Classic Empire will have to show the talent that earned the Eclipse Award as 2016â€™s outstanding juvenile, starting with the Arkansas Derby, to go to Louisville as the publicâ€™s choice. He feels his son of Pioneer of the Nile is up to it, although like most trainers would, he said a good strong race is more important than winning his final Derby prep.
â€śItâ€™s been a tough road but luckily the last month has gone very well. Do I wish we had another start? Of course, I do. But I put three really strong works into him. The good news is heâ€™s not a big, robust horse. Heâ€™s an athlete. So, itâ€™s not like he carries a lot of excess weight. He has a tremendous amount of ability, which will help him out.â€ť
Classic Empire has had a fancy workmate in recent weeks, Airoforce, a graded stakes winner on dirt and turf. â€śHeâ€™s a good horse in his own right,â€ť Casse said. â€śJulien (Leparoux) worked (Classic Empire) and he worked extremely well. The following week, Julien worked him again and he worked even better.
"He disposed of Airoforce much easier then galloped out really strong. Thatâ€™s the Classic Empire we know. More importantly, heâ€™s a happy horse. We know he has the ability. We just have to keep him happy.â€ť
He clearly wasnâ€™t happy at Gulfstream or Palm Meadows. Casse has no explanation for that. The day of the Holy Bull, it could have been the abscess, which was just beginning to bother Classic Empire, or he resented racing off the one-hour van ride from Palm Meadows to Gulfstream, the explanation initially offered.
Classic Empireâ€™s subsequent refusal to work is inexplicable. â€śThey canâ€™t speak to us, so I donâ€™t have a good answer. Iâ€™m not in any shape or form knocking Palm Meadows because we love it. Itâ€™s been good to us. But itâ€™s crazy.
"Over this winter, weâ€™ve had five or six or seven horses refuse to train. Tepin is one of them. I donâ€™t know what they see or what it is. The good news is, [Classic Empire] is not doing it anymore.â€ť
Casse offered some advice to those who have given up on Classic Empire. â€śI feel that ability wise he is the most talented horse out there.â€ť
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, April 06, 2017
Timing, other factors outweigh grading for Derby preps
The loss of Grade 1 status for the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial has had no impact on the decisions of trainers' choices for final Derby preps, according to a couple of conditioners who will send out leading contenders on Saturday. On the West Coast, Doug O'Neill and Bob Baffert will have seven starters between them in the Santa Anita Derby. O'Neill is confident he only needs one. Off the track, Frank Stronach has launched a preemptive strike against the Dubai World Cup, raising the total purse for the 2018 Pegasus to $16 million.
The downgrading of the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes, two of the most tradition laden events on the American racing calendar, turns out to be no big deal. Getting to the Kentucky Derby the right way is the only thing that matters, according to the trainers of a couple of leading Derby contenders.
Ian Wilkes, trainer of McCraken, the leader in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association 3-year-old poll, said the fact that the Blue Grass has been lowered from a Grade 1 to a Grade 2 was not a consideration in his decision to make the Keeneland fixture his undefeated coltâ€™s final prep. â€śI donâ€™t think either of those races should have been downgraded because of their history,â€ť Wilkes said. â€śBut the important thing is I wanted to get a race that could get me to the next race in the best possible way.â€ť
Graham Motion, who will send out Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry as one of the horses to beat in the Wood, conveyed the same feelings on an NTRA conference call. He made his decision based on the calendar and other circumstances. â€śI didnâ€™t feel comfortable running back in four weeks (in the Florida Derby). I wanted an extra week and to get him back home.â€ť Home is the Fair Hills training center in Maryland, a bucolic facility Motion prefers as his base because it gets his horses away from the hubbub of the racetrack.
On cold hard facts, itâ€™s difficult to argue with the decision to knock the Wood down a grade. The Wood winner hasnâ€™t doubled in the Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. However, Funny Cide, who ran second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood, reversed that order in the Derby. That was the last time horses who hit the board in New York also finished in the money in Louisville.
Motion called this a matter of happenstance. â€śItâ€™s only a matter of time until the right horses comes along.â€ť Heâ€™s hoping, of course, that Irish War Cry is that horse. But he has no explanation for his coltâ€™s lackluster Fountain of Youth.
NYRA apparently doesnâ€™t care about the downgrade. With more stakes money than it knows how to prudently spend, it has cut back the purse by a quarter-million dollars to $750,000. This makes it the only 100-point Derby prep with a purse under $1 million.
Itâ€™s difficult to imagine this seasonâ€™s Wood triggering the process to restore the tradition rich race to Grade 1. There is a stunning lack of star power. Batallion Runner, the likely favorite has won a maiden and entry level allowance at Gulfstream.
Todd Pletcher has won four of the last seven Wood Memorials with horses bringing gaudy resumes north from South Florida. Batallion Runner could be the fifth, especially considering his modest competition Saturday. But not one of Pletcherâ€™s Wood winners has finished even among the top half of the field in Louisville.
Pletcher has a less heralded, deservedly so, second entrant, Bonus Points. He brings a second and fourth in Aqueductâ€™s winter stakes into the Wood. Pletcherâ€™s chief rival, Chad Brown, has Cloud Computing, second in the Gotham (somebody had to be) and is still eligible for an entry level allowance. Brownâ€™s big 3-year-old, Practical Joke, is in Kentucky for the Blue Grass.
McCraken set for a big race
The Blue Grass, on the other hand, is taking an impressive first step back toward the top of the heap. It is inarguably the most talent rich field of the prep season. Itâ€™s revealing that Practical Joke, is not competing at the trainerâ€™s home base in New York, where he is a dual Grade 1 winner, and J Boys Echo, who won the Gotham, New Yorkâ€™s penultimate 3-year-old prep, also has spurned the Wood for the Blue Grass.
McCraken and Tapwrit, who stood out at Tampa Bay Downs this winter and are in most everyoneâ€™s top five Derby contenders, resume their rivalry in the seven-horse field.
Tapwrit has his Derby berth cinched with 54 points but McCraken, although undefeated has only 20 Derby points and needs no worse than a second to guarantee a slot in the gate. Third might be enough but it could become a sweat.
Ian Wilkes sounds like a trainer who doesnâ€™t lose sleep over this. â€śMcCraken has had three good works at Keeneland and I couldnâ€™t be any happier. Iâ€™m looking for a really big race.â€ť
Wilkes said he has no qualms about jumping into the stiffest prep. â€śHorses get better running against good competition. You get a different kind of fitness.â€ť
Forget the mild ankle sprain that cost McCraken a prep, Wilkes said. â€śIt was very minor.â€ť The colt recovered quickly enough that if Wilkes wanted, he said he could have run in the Tampa Bay Derby. He opted out because he would have been unable to squeeze in the kind of final work he wanted.
Heâ€™s the horse to beat until someone does it. I canâ€™t see anyone but Tapwrit having a shot to do this Saturday. Iâ€™m not going any deeper on my multi-race bets.
Baffert vs. O'Neill
California-based horses have won the past three Derbies and four of the last five but odds are against them improving that statistic on May 6. Mastery looked like this yearâ€™s hot contender but he went down before he could even be unsaddled after his breath-taking San Felipe score. Maybe Bob Baffert will get him back in late summer as this yearâ€™s Arrogate.
Whatâ€™s left of the West Coast Derby hopefuls is a relatively non-descript bunch and an uninspiring Santa Anita Derby. The most interesting aspect of this yearâ€™s renewal is the intramural scrimmage between Doug Oâ€™Neill, who is entering four, and Baffert, who will send three to the gate.
This is illustrative of whatâ€™s wrong with the trend toward super trainers and 200-horse barns. â€śThe other Baffertâ€ťâ€”the one with the longer odds when he starts twoâ€”is a mantra among Southern California fans. What do you do when he starts three and Oâ€™Neill, whose success also has inspired skepticism, has four? In any event, what this implies is not good for racing.
How ironic that Oâ€™Neill is one up because a horse Kaleem Shah took from Baffert and sent to him, Iliad, is among the four. â€śIt was like a late Christmas present,â€ť Oâ€™Neill said. He gives the impression that Iliad will be the gift that keeps on giving.
â€śIliad has impressed me from the first day I got him.â€ť Oâ€™Neill blames himself for the colt's failure in the San Felipe, although chasing Mastery had a lot to do with it. â€śI hadnâ€™t trained him hard and he got tired.â€ť
Oâ€™Neill has been trying to harness Iliadâ€™s early speed by training him behind horses and feels the effort is paying off. â€śHe doesnâ€™t need to be on the lead.â€ť This should be advantageous in a full Santa Anita Derby field loaded with speed. â€śIliad will move way forward on Saturday,â€ť Oâ€™Neill said.
Pegasus-World Cup war is on
Frank Stronach has launched a pre-emptive strike at Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashad al Maktoum, who said after last monthâ€™s Dubai World Classic that the $10 million purse would be raised to exceed the $12 million offered by the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park.
The Stronach Group announced Wednesday that the 2018 Pegasus, scheduled for Jan. 27, would have a $16 million purse. Stronach is putting up the increased $4 million himself. Where the madness will end is anyoneâ€™s guess but itâ€™s hard to imagine Stronach one-upping the Sheikh for worldâ€™s richest race.
A disappointing aspect of the Pegasus increase is that it will be bottom heavy. Each of 12 starters is promised at least $650,000, well up from the $250,000 guaranteed to horses who finished fourth through last this past winter. This will leave an increase of only $400,000 to be split among the top three.
This can only be interpreted to mean that Stronach was finding it difficult to get 12 owners to ante up $1 million apiece again after nine of the 12 lost about $750K in January. But this is not what horse racing is about or should be about. The notion of a horse or horses trailing the field by a pole yet bringing home $650K is absurd. It also brings into question the true value of the purse since the connections are really not putting up more than $350K apiece.
A more sensible and headline-grabbing approach for the additional money would have been to hang up an eye-popping $10 million for the winner, $3 million for second, $1.5 million for third and $500K for fourth through sixth. Any horse who doesnâ€™t finish in the top half of the field doesnâ€™t deserve a payoff.
How long do you figure it will be before the Sheikh plays "Can you top this?"
Written by Tom Jicha