Wednesday, May 28, 2014
California Chrome racing to maintain Triple Crown as we know it
The 12-most recent horses who have had a shot at the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes have fallen short. This has ignited cries that the tight five-week schedule needs to be changed to accommodate the way horses are trained in the 21st century. However, a review of history and statistics argues against the theory that the current time frame has anything to do with the 36-year drought since Affirmed beat Alydar (both ran in all three races) to capture the elusive prize.
MIAMI, May 28, 2014--California Chrome will be racing to make history in the Belmont Stakes. He also might be racing to affect the course of future racing history.
A sweep would silence those who say three demanding races within five weeks makes a Triple Crown unattainable to the modern thoroughbred. A feat canâ€™t be labeled impossible when it has been done.
Should California Chrome fail, cries to scrap contemporary history and lengthen the time frame of the Triple Crown will become deafening, even though there is scant evidence the proximity of the races is responsible for the 36-year drought.
The Triple Crown has been won 11 times. The three most recent were achieved within the same five-week time frame. Since Affirmed in 1978, 12 horses have had the opportunity California Chrome has on June 7. Their failures can be traced to myriad reasons.
Iâ€™ll Have Another didnâ€™t get his chance two years ago, suffering an injury on Belmont Eve. No one has figured out what happened to Big Brown in 2008.
Smarty Jones appeared to have the Triple Crown won in 2004, opening a four-length lead in the stretch only to have Birdstone nail him in the final few yards.
Funny Cide had the lead at the top of the stretch in 2003 before fading to third behind Empire Maker, who was arguably the superior horse, especially at 12 furlongs. War Emblem lost all chance in 2002 when he stumbled badly at the start.
The Triple Crown appeared conquered in three consecutive years, 1997-99. Silver Charm had a daylight lead in the stretch only to be run down in the final yards by Touch Gold. No horse will ever come closer to a Triple Crown without winning than Real Quiet. He got nosed out in a bob of heads the race caller labeled â€śtoo close to call.â€ť Charismatic led into the stretch but faded to third, possibly the result of a debilitating injury.
Sunday Silence in 1989 fell victim to â€śNew Yorkâ€™s Easy Goer,â€ť a colt who was virtually unbeatable at a NYRA track.
Alyshebaâ€™s defeat in 1987 was blamed on him having to race without Lasix, then prohibited at New York tracks.
You have to go back to Pleasant Colony in 1981 to find an instance where Triple Crown fatigue was mentioned as the reason for a loss in the Belmont. Johnny Campo said his horse was tired but a shot at a Triple Crown was irresistible.
Spectacular Bidâ€™s defeat in 1979 was attributed to a safety pin and/or Ronald Franklinâ€™s amateurish ride.
With the exception of Pleasant Colony, what is the explanation for the Triple Crown candidates outrunning all but one or two horses in most cases, many of them fresh challengers. Even Pleasant Colony got home third.
During this same period, Risen Star, Hansel, Point Given and Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont after coming up short in the Derbyâ€”running the same trio of demanding races within five weeks--with their second and third races stronger than the first.
California Chrome will be the 34th horse to vie for a Triple Crown after winning the first two legs. The 11 who turned the trick translates to 33%. Over decades, this is the same percentage of winning favorites in all races. To put it another way, about 67% of all favorites lose, so why does the same percentage by Triple Crown candidates ignite cries for drastic change?
Only three horses from this yearâ€™s Derby accepted the challenge to come back with â€śshort restâ€ť in the Preakness. They ran 1-2-4. Last year, Derby horses running back in two weeks finished 1-2-3-4. In 2012, it was 1-2-3. I could go on, but I think the point is made.
The horses are able, but most trainers are unwilling. Itâ€™s the uber-conservative management of horses now in vogue that is driving the movement to extend the time between the 3-year-old classics. Itâ€™s hard to find a modern trainer who would run stakes horses back within the two weeks between the Derby and Preakness or even the three weeks between the Preakness and Belmont. However, 15 horses in 35 yearsâ€”a tad short of halfâ€”have run the entire Triple Crown gauntlet and won two of three.
If thereâ€™s a logical culprit for the 36-year gap, itâ€™s the mile and a half distance. Had the Belmont been 100 yards shorter, Real Quiet and Smarty Jones, at least, would have swept the series. Silver Charm might have.
There are those--D. Wayne Lukas being the most prominent-- who have argued for shortening the distances of two of the three racesâ€”a nine-furlong Derby, a Preakness at its traditional 9 Â˝ furlongs and a mile-and-a-quarter Belmont. This would be like making tests easier so more students could get Aâ€™s. Future Triple Crowns would be deemed inferior in historical context.
California Chromeâ€™s connections are reporting that the son of Lucky Pulpitâ€”not exactly 12 furlong breeding, but it wasnâ€™t 10-furlong breeding, eitherâ€”are reporting he is training like â€śa monsterâ€ť and appears stronger than he did going into the Derby or Preakness. This is little more than a week after his second grueling race within 14 days.
So if he gets beat, it wonâ€™t be because of Triple Crown fatigue, according to the people who know him best. But this wonâ€™t deter horsemen and the media from offering that as the reason.
Iâ€™m hoping California Chrome denies them the opportunity and shuts them up for at least a few years.
Belmont tickets skyrocketing
Some thought it was a flight of whimsy when I suggested the best way to make money on California Chrome in the Preakness was not to take the 1-2 odds but to invest in reserved seats for the Belmont. I wasnâ€™t kidding.
Lo and behold, Forbes reports that since the Preakness, prices for Belmont Stakes tickets have skyrocketed. Two weeks out, the average price for a Belmont ticket on the secondary market was $407.94, according to Forbes. This is 48% higher than the price before the Preakness.
Granted, 48% is slightly less than the 50% return at the Preakness betting windows but the price of tickets is likely to get higher as the race approaches and excitement builds.
My far-out suggestion was just another form of astute money management.
Written by Tom Jicha
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Churchill getting what it deserves from HANA boycott
The Horseplayers Association of North America boycott of Churchill Downs and other CDI properties is an unqualified success. Handle is down substantially, so much so that Churchill could wind up with less revenue this season than it generated with a lower takeout last season. Meanwhile, a co-owner of California Chrome has joined the legion of people in and around the game to condemn CDI for the way it treats owners, trainers, jockeys, fans and the media.
MIAMI, April 21, 2014--Churchill Downs should be glad California Chrome isnâ€™t Mr. Ed. If he was a talking horse, he could join the chorus complaining about the way Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI)--the casino-oriented corporation with the misleading racing name--treats owners, trainers, jockeys, legends of the game, fans and the media.
Steve Coburn, part owner of the Derby and Preakness winner, became the latest to register his disgust with CDI in the aftermath of the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Despite the exhilaration of capturing Americaâ€™s biggest race, Coburn said his partner, Perry Martin, was so put off by the way he was treated at the Derby that he decided to not even attend the Preakness. â€śEven though we won (the Derby), it was a bad day for my partner and his family.â€ť
The mind boggles at how shabbily Martin must have been treated to ruin a day that is the dream of everyone in horse racing. â€śThe hospitality we received at Churchill Downs wasnâ€™t very good and Perry decided he and his family were going to watch the (Preakness) somewhere else in the world,â€ť Coburn said. Martin apparently couldnâ€™t be convinced that every track doesnâ€™t treat people as poorly as Churchill.
Saying he was as â€śserious as a heart attack,â€ť Coburn went on. â€śWe got to Churchill and not only did I complain but there were other trainers, owners and even jockeys complaining about the way they were treated.â€ť
CDI issued a corporate-speak apology. â€śOur team wanted to satisfy the California Chrome teamâ€™s needs when they were communicated to us. We regret that their experience at Churchill Downs appears to have fallen short of expectations.â€ś
Martinâ€™s mother reportedly needs assistance to get around. Churchill did little to nothing to accommodate her, according to Coburn.
This shouldnâ€™t come as a surprise. Churchill pulled the handicapped parking spot of Ron Turcotte, who rode Riva Ridge and Secretariat to back-to-back Derby triumphs. Churchill also told Turcotte, who is confined to a wheelchair as a result of a racing mishap, it had nowhere for him to watch the race.
Also during Derby week, Rick Porter, owner of Normandy Invasion, who would have been one of the favorites in the Alysheba Stakes, was informed there would be no seats set aside for him and his Fox Hill Farm partners.
â€śWhat is wrong with this management group?â€ť Porter asked on the Fox Hill website, which was reprinted by the Paulick Report. â€śNo wonder racing is on the decline. They donâ€™t have any regard for the owners, in my opinion. They are for themselves and the race track, as I see it. Not only do I feel that owners are treated like second class citizens by Churchill Downs, so, too, are the handicappers and everyday bettors.â€ť
This was right after the Louisiana legislature had to threaten to pull CDIâ€™s license at the Fair Grounds unless long overdue repairs were made.
Then thereâ€™s the situation at Calder, which is doing as little racing as is required in order to keep its slots parlor. Expectations are an agreement will be announced any day now that will have Gulfstream take over Calderâ€™s racing operation while CDI keeps the slots casino. Thankfully,this would end the debilitating head to head war for horses going on since last summer.
Responsibility for shutting down race tracks is nothing new to CDI, whose fingerprints are all over the demise of Hollywood Park. Why? Because it became clear that California was not going to approve slot machines at race tracks.
The only times CDI shows any attention to racing are the lucrative Oaks and Derby days.
The greatest pressure on CDI is coming from an unlikely source, a coalition of bettors, organized by the Horseplayers Association of North America. HANA has called for a wagering boycott of Churchill and other CDI tracks. The catalyst was a significant raise in takeout, announced just before Churchillâ€™s spring meet opened. The rake on straight bets went from 16% to 17.5% and multi-horse bets jumped from 19% to 22%.
Itâ€™s not as if Churchill needed the additional revenue to stave off bankruptcy. The stock price increased by 35% last year and CDIâ€™s top five executives were paid almost $28 million.
HANA launched a similar boycott when California instituted a takeout raise and it led to a low takeout Pick 5.
The Churchill boycott is succeeding beyond anyoneâ€™s most optimistic projections. Handle at Churchill through the first 14 programs is down $19.3 million for the first 14 days, according to HANA. Isolate the regular racing programs from the lucrative Derby and Oaks days and the decline is in the area of 23 percent. If these trends hold through the rest of the season, Churchill will take in less money than before the takeout was hiked.
HANA called for a boycott of all CDI properties and Arlington is also suffering severe declines in wagering. (Because of the direct competition with Gulfstream, year to year comparisons for Calder are meaningless.)
The success of the HANA boycott should send a message to tracks nationwide that they could become the next target if they jack up their takeout.
Written by Tom Jicha
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
If Not California Chrome, Who?
In my view, California Chrome faces a lackluster group of challengers in the Preakness. Only two horses who chased him home in the Derby, Ride on Curlin and General a Rod, are coming back for more, one of the smallest numbers in years. What's more, there are holes in the resumes of the new shooters. But there is a creative way to make a good score if he wins.
MIAMI, May 14, 2014--â€śLooking for a danger, canâ€™t find oneâ€ť is a pet Trevor Denman phrase for a race with a runaway winner. This also sums up how I feel about Saturdayâ€™s Preakness.
Like most horse players, Iâ€™m always looking to beat the favorite, especially in a race with the ego satisfaction of the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Maybe Iâ€™ll have an inspiration as post-time draws closer. But a few days out, I canâ€™t find a horse among those scheduled to run who can upset Derby champion California Chrome.
I would have loved to see Oaks winner Untapable take a shot but that isnâ€™t going to happen.
(I wonder if Steve Asmussen is gun shy about the attention running his filly against colts would bring. This wasnâ€™t a factor when he sent out Rachel Alexandra to beat Mine That Bird in 2009 but that was then and this is now. The uproar if anything happened to Untapable would be deafening, even though fillies routinely run against--and beat--the boys everywhere else in the world).
Actually, there will be a filly running against the males. Ria Antonia, one of the most mismanaged horse in years, is being thrown into the fray. Her problem is not that she is a filly. Itâ€™s that sheâ€™s a filly who has given no indication that she is good enough to have an impact on a race like the Preakness. She has gotten to the wire first only once in eight career starts, a maiden sprint at Woodbine last July. She got kissed into the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile Fillies winnerâ€™s circle when an exhausted Sheâ€™s a Tiger bore out late.
Ria Antoniaâ€™s owners have been hell bent on challenging males since the Breedersâ€™ Cup. Their first target this year was the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. Her then-trainer Jeremiah Englehart chose a more prudent spot; the Rachel Alexandra against her own sex, and she finished fourth.
That was it for Englehart. Next stop was the California barn of Bob Baffert, who got her to finish second in the Santa Anita Oaks. But after Ria Antonia ran sixth in the Kentucky Oaks, she was moved from Baffert to Tom Amoss, who agreed to enter her in the Preakness.
To make matters worse, Ria Antonia, as the only girl against the boys, will be seriously over-bet by drunks trying to score points with their girlfriends and women supporting one of their own.
California Chrome even has history on his side. Only three horses who did not run in the Derby have won the Preakness in the past 30 yearsâ€”Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Taking nothing away from Bernardini, who went on to establish himself as a great horse, his victory was tarnished when Barbaro broke down shortly after the start.
Is there anyone who mistakes Ride on Curlin and General a Rod for Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini or Red Bullet? Between them, these Derby also-rans have accounted for one stakes this year, General a Rodâ€™s win in the one-turn mile Gulfstream Park Derby on New Yearâ€™s Day.
Iâ€™ve been saying all winter and spring that General a Rod is a game animal but I could not see him getting a mile and a quarter. I feel the same way about a mile and three-sixteenths.
Ride On Curlin, who was given a highly questionable ride by Calvin Borel in the Derby, almost always gives you a late run. He could pick up some minor pieces in the Preakness but heâ€™s zero-for-seven in stakes races.
Iâ€™d be tempted to take a shot with Bayern or Social Inclusion if one or the other wasnâ€™t in the race. But since they each seem to have one-dimensional front-running styles, they could race each other into the ground, a perfect set-up for the stalking California Chrome.
There seems to be no doubt that Social Inclusion, who appears to have the sharpest early lick, is going to the lead after his final work on Monday, a half-mile in a bullet 47 seconds. Baffert indicated heâ€™s going to a new strategy for Bayern, whose final work of 1:02 3/5 was atypically slow for Bullet Bob.
Baffert is taking off the blinkers, tipping his hand that he doesnâ€™t want Bayern dueling on a hot pace. Still, there is only so much you can do to harness a horse's natural tendencies.
If Bayern can be successfully rated he could be double tough. He deserved to be taken down in the Derby Trial but, if you watch the race and the gallop-out, you will see that Embellishing Bob and Myositis Dan were not going to pass him.
Even if Bayern doesnâ€™t go all out early, Social Inclusion should have company on the front end. Illinois Derby winner Dynamic Impact, Tampa Bay Derby winner Ring Weekend and Pablo Del Monte, who led the Blue Grass into the stretch, as well as General a Rod, are likely to be prominent early, although this could be suicidal for the lesser lights.
Every Preakness has at least one local shooter. This year, itâ€™s Kid Cruz although heâ€™s not exactly a native son, being based in New York. However, he did ship south to the Free State to win the Federico Tesio and Private Terms.
However, a Maryland spring-stakes winner who didnâ€™t start in the Derby hasnâ€™t upset Pimlicoâ€™s signature race since Deputed Testimony in 1983. But they do occasionally hit the board at generous odds and Kid Cruzâ€™s late-running style could be the right way to go if the early fractions are as hot as they figure to be.
Iâ€™m looking for the danger to California Chrome but I canâ€™t find it. Heâ€™s on top of my tickets with Bayern, Ride on Curlin and Kid Cruz in supporting positions.
The price on the Derby champ, even in exactas, is likely to be so short that there might be a better way to try to make a buck. Buy as many Belmont Stakes reserved seats before Saturday as your budget allows. If he wins, they will be like gold, shooting up in value because a Triple Crown will be on the line. If he doesnâ€™t win, you werenâ€™t going to collect anyway but the Belmont tickets, unlike losing pari-mutuel tickets, will still have some value.
Written by Tom Jicha