Thursday, February 04, 2016
Let’s not drape the roses on Mohaymen just yet
Mohaymen looked like one of the ones in the Holy Bull. But let's not lose sight of the fact that there is an undefeated Eclipse champion, Nyquist, on the West Coast. Thanks to a $1 million bonus, the showdown of the undefeated colts could come in April, not May.
MIAMI, Feb. 4, 2016--We interrupt the coronation of Mohaymen as the 13th Triple Crown winner in order to inject some perspective. I was as blown away as everyone else by the grey son of Tapitâ€™s arrogant dismissal of an accomplished group of challengers in Saturdayâ€™s Holy Bull. Christopher Kay is probably polishing his Belmont crowd cap press release as you read this.
I would embrace another conquest of Americaâ€™s most coveted prize as enthusiastically and emotionally as I did American Pharoahâ€™s. (I shed tears and Iâ€™m not ashamed to admit it.) Iâ€™m rooting for Mohaymen as hard as I did for American Pharoah. Affirmedâ€™s Triple Crown was no less exhilarating even though it came the year after Seattle Slewâ€™s.
However the calendar had not turned into February when Mohaymen flashed under the wire to remain undefeated in his four-race career. Itâ€™s still more than three months, an eternity in racing, to the first Saturday in May.
I was equally awestruck when Algorithmsâ€”Holy Bull runnerup Greenpointcrusaderâ€™s half-brother--buried Juvenile champion Hansel in the 2012 Holy Bull to go three-for-three. Two years earlier, Eskenderya looked any price for the Spring Classics when he ran away with the Fountain of Youth. Between them they would make one more start, Eskenderyaâ€™s romp in the Wood Memorial.
I hate to bring up these things but stuff happens in racing. Thankfully, some of it is positive, so letâ€™s accentuate that.
Has everyone forgotten that there is an undefeated Eclipse champion named Nyquist on the West Coast getting ready for his 3-year-old debut in the San Vicente on Feb. 15? Before anyone resurrects my own words to throw in my face, yes I did say in my Eclipse column that while I was voting for Nyquist, if someone gave me a free Derby futures bet, I would place it on Mohaymen. I still feel this way. This doesn't mean I would tear up a ticket on Nyquist.
Being out of sight since Halloween has taken Nyquist out of mind for many. To remedy this I suggest going back and taking another look at the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile. (Just Google â€śBreedersâ€™ Cup Juvenileâ€ť.) Itâ€™s an eye-opener.
Nyquist was hung out in post 13, got bumped coming out of the gate and wound up about six or seven wide around the first turn. He didnâ€™t get in going down the backstretch so he was four or five wide around the far turn into the stretch. The race might have been a mile and a sixteenth but he ran damn close to a mile and an eighth. Nevertheless, he was able to draw away from everyone but Swipe, who has run second to him four straight times but keeps getting closer.
Swipe looks like the Triple Crown distances were drawn up with him in mind. His 3-year-old debut has been delayed by an ankle chip but he is on the road to recovery and should get going about the same time American Pharoah did last year.
Also in Nyquistâ€™s wake were some nice horses people in the East are still excited about. Brodyâ€™s Cause, the Breedersâ€™ Futurity winner, was third. Exaggerator, the Saratoga Special winner, who was second to Brodyâ€™s Cause at Keeneland, then won the Delta Jackpot after the Juvenile, is also looking at the San Vicente.
Champagne champion Greenpointcrusader, second to Mohaymen Saturday, checked in 7th behind Nyquist in the Juvenile. Conquest Big E, non competitive in the Holy Bull, was eighth in the Juvenile.
So anybody who dismisses Nyquist at this point does so at their own peril.
Thanks to an extraordinary circumstance, racing fans might not have to wait until Louisville to see the showdown of the two undefeated colts. Doug Oâ€™Neill announced some time ago that Nyquistâ€™s Kentucky Derby trail could run through the Florida Derby, the race Mohaymen is also tentatively being pointed toward.
There are a million reasons for this unconventional plotting. Last spring, Fasig-Tipton and Gulfstream Park collaborated on a $1 million bonus available to any horse bought out of the March 2015 Fasig-Tipton sale, who went on to win the Florida Derby. Nyquist was a $400,000 purchase out of that auction. So he would be racing for the winnerâ€™s share of the regular $1 million purse plus an extra $1 million if he were to triumphâ€”about $1.6 million, more than the winnerâ€™s share of any of the Triple Crown events.
This is a tempting lure to travel cross country to take on Mohaymen without any roses at stake. Then again Kiaran McLaughlin also would have options. He isnâ€™t one to duck any manâ€™s horse under normal circumstances but the final prep before the Derby is not a normal circumstance.
McLaughlin could return to his home base in New York with Mohaymen, where the Wood Memorial on April 9 offers the same $1 million pot as the April 2 Florida Derby without having to take on an Eclipse champion.
Besides, McLaughlin would love to win one of the most tradition rich races on his home circuit. He might opt for this route no matter what Oâ€™Neill decides for Nyquist.
This should make for interesting speculation and conversation over the next couple of months, which can only be good for racing.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Seminole casino deal could push decoupling to back burner
The contentious issue of decoupling pari-mutuels and slots and card rooms is on Florida's legislative agenda again this year but it is liable to get pushed aside by a bigger gambling debate, a new casino compact with the Seminole Indians, which promises the state $3 billion over seven years. However, decoupling isn't going away.South Florida's dog tracks have a backdoor strategy to rid themselves of greyhound racing.
MIAMI, Jan. 28-2016--Floridaâ€™s thoroughbred industry, which has marshaled its efforts and built cross-breed alliances in a rare show of strength against decoupling, can probably take a breath. Unless years of legislative precedent are abandoned, there is little chance decoupling will be approved during the current legislative session.
But the breath can only be a short one. The issue is sure to keep coming back.
Florida lawmakers traditionally meet in March and April. To get out of the way of the presidential primaries in March, they are convening in January and February in 2016. The prevailing attitude among lawmakers when it comes to pari-mutuel issues always has been, get everyone to agree on a clean bill, bring it to us and weâ€™ll pass it. We are not going to referee intramural squabbles.
There is little chance of a clean bill in the short term because of how decoupling--allowing South Florida pari-mutuels to keep their card rooms and slots operations without staging dog, harness or quarterhorse races or jai alai gamesâ€”has split the industry. The pari-mutuels other than Gulfstream are all in on decoupling. Since theyâ€™ve introduced lucrative slots and card rooms, their former businesses are considered a nuisance and a big money loser, if they can be believed. Creative bookkeeping can produce any outcome you want.
The horse industry has assembled a formidable coalition of Gulfstream, the national and local HBPA, breeders, the American Quarterhorse Association and standard bred organizations in opposition. The Ocala Star Banner has editorialized against decoupling. Thatâ€™s a cacophony of loud voices the legislature doesnâ€™t want to hear.
This is especially true inasmuch as decoupling is a small line item in a big picture, debate over a new gambling compact with the Seminole Indians, which promises the state $3 billion over the next seven years. Decoupling promises zero dollars.
The compact negotiated by Gov. Rick Scott has not been universally embraced by lawmakers for the usual reasonsâ€”religious groups against what they see as an expansion of gambling, DisneyWorld corridor businesses fighting anything with the potential to pull dollars out of their neighborhood and the usual partisan politics.
The debate has the potential to be so rancorous that some are predicting it will be put aside for a special session so that typical legislative business can be tended to during the regular session. With all the wrangling expected, lawmakers are unlikely to want to make another divisive issue a part of the deal this year, even in a special session. So the issue could be tabled until at least 2017.
A lot of hysteria has been generated about decoupling eventually leading to the end of thoroughbred racing in Florida. I donâ€™t believe this, as I wrote in a previous column. Thoroughbred racing means too much to the state in terms of revenue, tourism and maintenance of green spaces.
However, I have come to appreciate the horsemenâ€™s fears. There is universal agreement that as long as Frank Stronach is running Gulfstream Park, there is no chance thoroughbred racing will be pushed aside. However, Stronach is 83 and mortality is a reality for all of us.
Horsemen reasonably ask what happens when Frank is no longer around. Supposedly, there is a succession plan in place but trying to find out what it is elicits the same reaction as asking Donald Trump for a detailed position paper on any issue.
Andy Stronach appears to be the crown prince. However, in the wake of his Sweepstakes 6 brainstorm at Portland Meadowsâ€”formless culls racing two furlongs to build huge jackpotsâ€”Iâ€™m affording a lot more credibility to the doomsday scenario horsemen have created for life after Frank.
Suppose Churchill Downs were to buy Gulfstream to expand its casino footprint in South Florida. What used to be Calder provides all the evidence needed about CDIâ€™s attitude toward racing. Five years ago, people would have scoffed at the notion of the abandonment of racing.
It wouldnâ€™t have to be Churchill. Any number of mega-casino corporations with no regard for racing could bid for Gulfstream for its casino license only.
That said, Gulfstreamâ€™s objection to decoupling has little to do with the preservation of racing and a lot to do with the preservation of its casino. Gulfstream is against decoupling out of fear that the other pari-mutuels, especially Mardi Gras Casino (formerly Hollywood Greyhound Track) right up the road, will use the money that now goes to purses to create incentives and perks to lure slots players from Gulfstreamâ€™s casino.
If the non-thoroughbred pari-mutuels are relieved of the obligation to stage races and games, it will de facto create six new stand-alone casinos in South Florida to operate against Gulfstream. This is in addition to the fabulously prosperous Seminole Hard Rock Casino. Their advertising and promotion dollars will go 100 percent to touting their casinos while Gulfstreamâ€™s marketing budget will be split between racing and its casino. Racing could come out on the short end of that.
Itâ€™s revealing that Hollywood Greyhound Track now goes by the name Mardi Gras Casino; Flagler Dog Track is now Magic City Casino; Pompano Park Harness Track is now The Isle Casino and Miami Jai Alai is now Casino Miami.
The South Florida greyhound tracks feel they have a pocket ace. Izzy Havenick, the third generation to run what was Flagler Dog Track, has been quoted as saying if the legislature doesnâ€™t give the greyhound tracks decoupling, they will go at it another way--a referendum to outlaw greyhound racing as cruelty to animals.
Consider the gall of that. Nevertheless, Hecht expressed confidence, probably well founded, that this would easily pass with voters, just as it did in Massachusetts in 2008.
But the dog tracks will be running a gamble that could backfire. Iâ€™m sure their thinking is, if dog racing is outlawed, they can go to the legislature and say, â€śWhat can we do? Our hands are tiedâ€ť and plead to be allowed to stay in the casino business. Granted this would be like a child murdering his parents then asking for mercy because he is an orphan. But considering what Florida is allowing Churchill Downs to get away with at Calder, theyâ€™re probably right.
But itâ€™s not a sure thing. The other South Florida pari-mutuels and the Seminoles could pour millions into lobbying efforts to rid themselves of a couple of competitors by getting lawmakers to tell the former Flagler and Hollywood dog tracks, â€śYou made this bedâ€¦.â€ť
What a delicious possibility.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, January 21, 2016
$12 million race? Why not $100 milliion? Neither is going to happen
Frank Stronach thinks big. It's one of his virtues. But he doesn't always think things through. His proposal for a $12 million race is unworkable in countless ways. Maybe it's just a distraction from the National Racing Club Sweepstakes 6 in Oregon, the worst idea ever inflicted on thoroughbred racing.
MIAMI, Jan. 21, 2016--Frank Stronachâ€™s ideas fall into two categories: brilliant and visionary or â€śwhat is he thinking?â€ť
Rebuilding Gulfstream as part of a vast entertainment and shopping complex and keeping the track operating year-round falls mostly into the first category. The track is doing magnificently, the bars and restaurants are doing mostly OK but the retail stores are struggling, largely because they are within walking distance of one of the grandest malls in Florida, Aventura. This should have been considered in advance but Stronach is a big picture guy, who rarely gets into details.
This is at the heart of the issues with his latest grandiose scheme, a $12 million race in January at Gulfstream or Santa Anita. He announced the idea at a Thoroughbred Owners Conference last week, part of Eclipse week at Gulfstream. Plaudits to him and the Gulfstream staff for elevating the Eclipse Awards from one night in a hotel ballroom into a week of festivities.
Maybe Stronach wanted to make a splash in front of potential new blood in the game or maybe he just wanted to steer the conversation away from the godawful National Sweepstakes 6 at his Portland Meadows track. It's astonishing that only now are racing officials beginning to realize that races with horses all owned by the same entity, Frank's son Andy, whose stated goal is to create life-changing jackpots, is not the best idea for the sport.
The $12 million race, under the terms he unveiled, has as much chance of coming to fruition as the twin hotels he promised to sandwich around the Gulfstream grandstand and the elaborate water theme park in the north parking lot. That is to say, no chance.
What would be the worldâ€™s richest race is clearly Stronachâ€™s attempt to top Dubaiâ€™s World Cup. But while the World Cup is funded by the black gold being pumped out of the desert sands, Stronach is proposing that 12 investors fund the event by purchasing shares at a million bucks apiece.
This would give them the right to enter a horse in the big race and share in 70 percent of any profitsâ€”Stronach keeps 30 percent-- generated by TV rights, sponsorships and the betting handle on the race. This is where Stronach went off the rails.
Peeling $1 million off a bankroll without knowing if you would have a horse good enough to race in such an event is not something a lot of horse people are going to be anxious to do, even with the opportunity to sell or assign the starting berth. Using the standard purse distribution model, a horse would have to run no worse than third in the projected 12-horse field for the shareholder to recoup the investment.
The purse would be the only means of recouping anything on the investment. The race would have to handle more than double the Kentucky Derby to generate the $12 million purse from the trackâ€™s share of the takeout.
Television pays a rights fee for the Triple Crown events because they draw millions of eyeballs. Otherwise, racing has to pay TV, directly or through guaranteed commercials, to get coverage. Scheduling would be a challenge with football bowl games and NFL playoff games dominating TV on most January Saturdays. No ratings, no rights fees and no big commercial rates.
This is also the period on the calendar when the previous yearâ€™s thoroughbred stars are laying up between seasons or have already headed to the breeding shed.
The gargantuan purse might induce some owners to keep a horse in training but luring a dozen worthy of a race with such an unprecedented payoff is more wishful thinking than reality. Forget Euros. Theyâ€™re back home hibernating in their winter coats. Itâ€™s more likely you would wind up with the equivalent of the Halâ€™s Hope for about 80 times the purse.
Stronach could make just as big a splash by bumping up the purses of the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream, the Big Cap at Santa Anita and the Pimlico Special at his Maryland property to $2 million apiece with a $6 million bonus for a sweep. This would have the added appeal of diminishing the big race in Dubai by keeping the American stars at home. Thanks to the worldwide collapse of the oil market, the World Cup might not be around too much longer anyway.
A classy show
Getting back to the Eclipse Awards, the industry can be proud again of the polished show race track people, most of whom are not regularly seen or heard on TV, presented. Jeannine Edwards, one of the few with extensive TV experience, has become to the Eclipse Show what Billy Crystal used to be to the Oscars.
She kept the show bright, breezy and moving despite not always getting cooperation from the winners. Immediately after she prefaced the presentation of awards by making a plea that winners not filibuster by thanking everyone they have ever met in racing, the first honoree went ahead and did just that. Thankfully, most of the other winners played by the rules. If they hadnâ€™t the show would still be going on.
The only segment that dragged was Jay Hovdeyâ€™s moving but long-winded tribute to Award of Merit recipient Leonard Lavin of Glen Hill Farm, who wasnâ€™t able to attend.
James â€śMattress Macâ€ť McIngvale was characteristically less than gracious in failing to recognize Maria Borell, who trained his Sprint Champion Runhappy to five consecutive wins, including the Breedersâ€™ Cup Sprint. His boorish behavior was a surprise only to those unfamiliar with him.
However, the enduring memory of the night is Team American Pharoah being summoned to the podium five times yet finding something appropriate to say on each visit. Classy horse, classy people, classy show.
No more free parking in Vegas
Horseplayer advocate and friend of HRI Andy Asaro alerted me to a piece in the Los Angeles Times that reveals a number of hotels on the Las Vegas Strip plan to start charging as much as $10 per day for parking.
The hotels that have come out in support of this plan are the Aria, Bellagio, Circus Circus, Delano, Excalibur, Luxor, MGM Grand, Mirage, Monte Carlo, New York-New York and Vdara.
I can see the higher end hotels, where pricing is not an issue with their well heeled clientele, getting away with this. However, I suspect the more moderately priced hotels, where prices are part of the appeal, such as Circus Circus and Excalibur will take a steep hit.
Other properties are undoubtedly waiting to see how this trial balloon floats before deciding if they will take part in this price gouge. Another factor could be if every hotel on The Strip suddenly, after free parking forever, decided at the same time to introduce a fee, they could be facing the mother of all anti-trust price fixing suits.
The only hotels who have said they have no plans to charge for parking, according to the story, are the Venetian and Palazzo.
This could turn into a bonanza for off-the-Strip hotels such as the Station properties, the Orleans and South Point (which is on Las Vegas Blvd, but well south of The Strip). Horse players especially could be expected to gravitate toward racebooks where there is not what amounts to a $10 cover fee.
This comes a few years after the furor over another consumer fleece, resort fees. These hidden charges, which range as high as $25 per day for things that used to be free, including parking, started at a few hotels and has now spread to just about all of them. I fear this will be the case with the parking fee as well.
Written by Tom Jicha