Thursday, October 20, 2016
A Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ‘freak’ to root for and bet
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile seems exceptionally loaded this year. Classic Empire is a likely deserving favorite. Practical Joker and Syndegaard are coming in hot from New York. Either Gormley or Klint could be the next Kentucky Derby winner to come out of California. No telling how good Iroquois winner Not This Time might be. But there's a "freak" shipping west from Florida, who might be talented enough to outrun them all at a generous price.
MIAMI, Oct 20, 2016â€”Classic Empire was scintillating winning the Breedersâ€™ Futurity. Mark Casse touted him to the heavens going into the race and the son of Pioneer of the Nileâ€”American Pharoahâ€™s sireâ€”delivered, drawing off despite being wide all the way.
Practical Joke and Syndegaard put on a show in the Champagne. Syndegaard did all the heavy lifting up front and Practical Joker had to come from last off a troubled start. Practical Joke got the bob that could have gone either way. Both are exceptionally talented.
Gormley put away the best on the West Coast in the Front Runner while Bob Baffertâ€™s heavy favorite Klimt had a tough trip but was still coming on at the end over the track where the Breedersâ€™ Cup will be run.
Dale Romans is as high on Iroquois winner Not This Time as he has ever been on a 2-year-old.
Iâ€™m looking forward to seeing all these extraordinary juveniles going forward into next spring. Iâ€™m also looking forward to beating them at a price with Three Rules on Nov. 5.
This is not a parochial selection. Homey donâ€™t play that game. Three Rules has beaten only Florida-breds in winning five straight, including all three legs of the Sires Stakes series at Gulfstream. But the last time I bet a South Florida-developed juvenile at the Breedersâ€™ Cup was Awesome Feather in 2010. She, too, had won her first five, including a sweep of the Sire Stakes. She smoked the best of her generation in the BC Juvenile Fillies and was awarded the Eclipse in her division.
I see Three Rules having the same potential. His connections, Shade Tree Thoroughbreds, must, too. This is a blue collar group you want to root for. They bought their first horse by maxing out their credit cards, according to Tom Fitzgerald, one of the partners.
Their best horse prior to Three Rules, Three Part Harmony, ran second to Big Drama in the 2008 In Reality before eventually sliding back into the claiming ranks. But when he suffered a fractured ankle, the partners went deep into their pockets to save him. Heâ€™s enjoying a life of leisure on the farm, Fitzgerald said proudly.
They might be making a bigger gamble than any of the heavy-hitters or computer syndicates at the Breedersâ€™ Cup. Offers have been pouring in to purchase Three Rules. The highest reportedly is the $3 million range.
Itâ€™s like the contestants on the game show â€śDeal or No Deal.â€ť You can take the sure money from The Banker or risk it and try to break the bank. If Three Rules comes through, he might be worth double or triple what he is now. If he runs up the track, the offers will virtually disappear.
It isnâ€™t just that Three Rules hasnâ€™t been seriously tested. He's won his five starts by 31 lengths. No one has gotten within three lengths of him and he has been eased up at the end of every race. Itâ€™s his ability to adapt to circumstances.
In the Affirmed Stakes, he was just off a 44-second pace going seven furlongs before he took over, opened 7 and coasted home by 5 Â˝. In the two-turn In Reality, he wound up on the lead at the first call for the first time in his career, slowed the pace down to a 48-second half, then blasted home to win by 10 in 1:44 3/5 for a mile and a sixteenth, a tick off the stakes record. â€śTwo-year-olds donâ€™t do that kind of stuff,â€ť another of his owners, Bert Pilcher, said.
Three Rules' 87 Beyer is within one point of the last race fig of everyone in the field with the exception of Gormley, who got a 93 in winning the Front Runner with an unchallenged gate-to-wire-never-off-the-rail performance, a situation that always produces an inflated Beyer. And Three Rules, eased at the end, could have run faster in the In Reality.
His trainer, Jose Pinchin, paid him the ultimate tribute. â€śHe can do just about anything you want. Heâ€™s a freak.â€ť
Iâ€™ve seen it and I believe it.
NYRA finally gets will-pays right
Speaking of joining the rest of the racing world, after criticizing NYRA for years for posting $2 payoffs, even for bets like the Pick 4, which nobody plays in $2 increments, itâ€™s only fair to give it a pat on the back for finally listing all will pays except straight bets for their minimum wagers.
The lone major holdout now in posting only $2 probables is Keeneland, which does everything else so right.
Sport of Kings
Frank Stronach is determined to restore racing to its status as the Sport of Kings.
Gulfstream has released the ticket prices for the Jan. 28 Pegasus Stakes, the worldâ€™s richest race. Commoners need not apply.
The least expensive admission--for a track that usually has none--will be $100. This is double the Kentucky Derby, two and a half times the Preakness and more than a two-day pass for the Breedersâ€™ Cup.
The C-note gets you nothing more than through the gate. If you want to sit down, it will cost up to $765.
For comparison purposes, I checked with Orbitz. You can fly to Paris that weekend for $755. This includes airfare and two nights in a three-star hotel.
Found comes up short
Arc winner Found almost did it again to the best males on the continent in the English Champion Stakes last Saturday. The great filly, who won last yearâ€™s Breedersâ€™ Cup Turf against males, ran second against the supposedly superior sex in a Grade 1 stakes for the second time in 13 days.
Some on this side of the Atlantic might say it was the short rest that beat her. Maybe. But it could be the fact that Almanzor, the French Derby champion, was winning his fifth in a row and eighth in 10 career races and also beat her in the Irish Champion Stakes.
Incidentally, Aidan Oâ€™Brien is still considering a BC Turf defense for Found off what would be a 21-day layoffâ€”three world class stakes against males on two continents in five weeks.
So who do you think knows more about the care and training of horses: the sheets faithful or Aidan Oâ€™Brien?
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Early retirement of stars only part of racing’s problem
It's encouraging that a number of stars, such as California Chrome, Beholder, Flintshire and Tepin are racing as 5- and 6-year-olds.However, it doesn't help the game a lot when they appear in the entries every two months or less on average. There are myriad causes but all can be remedied and must be if racing is to reverse its downward spiral.
MIAMI, Oct. 13, 2016--A constant racing lament is, â€śWe have to keep our stars in training and out of the breeding shed.â€ť Itâ€™s the primary reason the Breedersâ€™ Cup was created.
The extended careers of 6-year-old stars Beholder, Flintshire and Mongolian Saturday and 5-year-olds California Chrome, Tepin, Ironicus, Hoppertunity and Effinex are testimony that this goal is being partially realized. If the $12 million Pegasus comes to pass and endures, it might induce more owners to keep their stars active.
The retirements of still healthy winners of five of the past six Triple Crown eventsâ€”American Pharoah, Exaggerator and Creator, are the other side of the coin. This week it also was revealed that 3-year-old Brodyâ€™s Cause, a Grade 1 winner at 2 and 3, is being reassigned to baby-making.
Premature trips to the breeding shed is only part of a bigger problem. Even when the best have extended careers, they show up in the entries too infrequently to build star power.
Super Saturday last weekend featured eight Grade 1 stakes. The four at Belmont, with cumulative purses of $2.4 million, drew three six-horse fields and one five-horse field. What made this more discouraging is two of the races, the Champagne and Frizette, were for juveniles. The fact that Keeneland drew big fields for a couple of juvenile stakes could be ascribed to the fact that the New York races were both one-turn events while Keenelandâ€™s events were around two turns, much more useful preps for horses with Breedersâ€™ Cup aspirations.
(I donâ€™t know that there is a solution to this for NYRA but it does point out another big problem should Belmont become the only track in the Metropolitan area. The Wood Memorial would not be nearly as enticing for Derby hopefuls if it started on the Belmont backstretch.)
Thereâ€™s an obvious reason for the short field dilemma: the trend to space races over absurdly long intervals. The average time between starts for the four top grade stakes at Belmont was six weeks.
The spacing in the Frizette was 41 days, 50 days, 50 days, 27 days, 33 days and 55 days. Interestingly the filly coming back in less than four weeks was Yellow Agate, the winner.
For the Flower Bowl, the number of days between starts was 21 (a French import), 42, 35, 42, 42 and 56. With two exceptions, one a Euro shipper, the field was composed of horses coming off layoffs so long that in days of not-so-old handicappers would have speculated whether they needed one.
The Champagne juveniles had not started in 33, 57, 44, 27, 49 and 33 days.
In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, once one of Americaâ€™s most prestigious races, the days between starts were 29, 35, 49, 42 and 63. Frosted, who would have been odds-on, was languishing perfectly healthy in his stall, awaiting the Breedersâ€™ Cup Mile or Classic when he will not have raced in more than two months.
The negative impact this has on racing is further illustrated by this factoid: Not one of the entrants in the Flower Bowl and Jockey Club Gold Cup, theoretically among racingâ€™s best, had raced more than six times this year. Only two had been out that many times, the same number as those who had only one prior start in the first nine months of 2016. The average number of starts going into the two races was fewer than five. (I omitted the 2-year-old stakes because not one of the juveniles had begun their career until August.)
This isnâ€™t only an issue in New York, which still likes to think of itself as the capital of racing. The Santa Anita Sprint Championship, worth $300,000, pulled a group of five. This has become the norm for a California stakes. The quintet had an average layoff of 56 days. Anyone sensing a connection? Their average number of starts this season was less than four.
Only Keeneland was able to lure sizable fields for its three Grade 1â€™s--the First Lady, the Shadwell Turf Mile and the Breedersâ€™ Futurity. The average field size was 11.
As they like to say in politics and football analysis, thereâ€™s another story inside the numbers. In the First Lady, four of the 10 starters had raced within four weeks, a reasonable break. Take those away and you would have had a six-horse field.
Half the dozen in the Breedersâ€™ Futurity were within four weeks of their last start. Without them, it would have been another six-horse field.
The Shadwell Mile was the weekendâ€™s outlier with 11 starters, only two of whom had started within four weeks. Even here, the average number of starts in 2016 was just over five.
A number of factors are at play. Trainers are letting their horsesâ€™ agendas be dictated by the sheets guys, many of whom have never been closer to a horse than the other side of the rail. They have been sold a bill of goods that horses need a lengthy vacation between starts, although there is evidence to the contrary. Woody Stephens, who won the Belmont and Met Mile within five days with Conquistador Cielo, used to say, "Run them when they are good." The philosophy of the sheets is when a horse runs big, lay him off for more than a month. The sheets are a terrific handicapping tool but I'd rather side with a legendary Hall of Fame trainer when it comes to plotting a horse's career.
Super barns are another factor. Guys like Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Bob Baffert have so many horses, including many of the best, that they can afford to run each only a few times a year.
I donâ€™t begrudge them their success. If I were any of them, I would want every good horse on the planet under my shed row. If I owned a world class horse, I would want a superstar trainer to condition him.
Itâ€™s up to the tracks to bring about change. A simple remedy would be to allot no more than 50 stalls and to enter only two horses in a race. (I would also bring back the coupled entry rule. When â€śthe longer halfâ€ť wins now, it raises unnecessary--and often unfounded--suspicions.) If a Pletcher or Brown has 50 2-year-olds, they have to wait their turn to race. Spread them around other barns and you would see them in the entries.
The third factor is per diems. Even a middle of the pack trainer commands about $100 a day in New York. Granted, a lot of this goes for grooms, hot walkers, exercise riders and workmenâ€™s comp, but there is still something for the trainer. Meanwhile owners, whose horses are sitting idle, are doing nothing but writing checks. If trainers had to get by on a percentage of earnings (which would have to be raised considerably), you wouldnâ€™t see them sitting on so many horses.
Thereâ€™s no mystery to why the foal crop continues to decline. Fewer people want to get into a game in which they are almost a guaranteed loser. A horse who starts 12 times a year, not an onerous burden, is going to pay for more of his upkeep than one who goes out half as often.
I concede these are radical suggestions, which have as much chance to be implemented as Gary Johnson has to be elected president, but racing can't keep doing things the way they have always been done. It isn't working. If the trend of shorter fields and longer layoffs continues or gets worse, the direction it seems to be heading, it will hasten the end of the sport as we know and love it.
Chrome scaring them off
Baffert disclosed this week that Dortmund, arguably the second best horse on the West Coast, is being turned back to the Breedersâ€™ Cup Mile. Makes sense. Heâ€™s tried Classic favorite California Chrome three straight times and wound up hot and dirty.
Frosted, the best older horse in the East, also might wind up in the Mile. Kiaran McLaughlin is still on the fence between that and the Classic.Take away California Chrome and there would be no question where Frosted would be headed. To give credit to McLaughin, his preference is the Classic but he is not making the call. Frostedâ€™s owner will do that.
The lesser awards of the $6 million Classic are still lucrative enough to draw a fairly full gate, especially with some stars going elsewhere.
However I wouldnâ€™t want to be that pizza guy in the Midwest or some of the others, who ponied up $1 million apiece for a slot in the Pegasus starting gate, thinking they could sell it for a profit. Entry fees for the BC Classic are hefty but nowhere close to a million dollars.
If Chrome dominates the Classic, I donâ€™t see a lot of owners, who arenâ€™t one of the original 12, banging down doors to pay a cool million to take on the champ.
Written by Tom Jicha
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Tepin stands out but Casse, Cox tout live price horses
Team Tepin is conceding the Horse of the Year title to California Chrome so they are taking the course of lesser resistance this weekend, Keeneland's First Lady against females.It will be difficult to make money on her but Casse has another contender on the final Super Saturday of the fall who should be a price in the Breeders' Futurity. Brad Cox also is touting one of his stakes hopefuls, who will be a price in the Woodford. Meanwhile, the brilliance of California Chrome is causing owners and trainers to consider whether they want to take him on in the BC Classic.
MIAMI, Oct. 5, 2016--Mark Casse has done something his extraordinary mare Tepin never does. He has raised the white flag.
It was anticipated Tepin would have her final prep for her defense of the Breedersâ€™ Cup Mile title in Saturdayâ€™s $1 million Shadwell Mile against males. Instead, Casse has opted to take on Tepinâ€™s own gender in the $400,000 First Lady.
The Keeneland races are among more than a dozen stakes nationwide with Breedersâ€™ Cup implications on the final Super Saturday of the fall.
The reason: California Chrome. It might seem odd that the best dirt horse in the world would have an impact on the agenda of the outstanding turf mare in North America and arguably the world. (The debate comes down to Tepin vs. Found, each of whom has a different specialty.)
California Chromeâ€™s demolition of Dortmund and others in last Saturdayâ€™s Awesome Again, on top of everything else he has done this year, convinced Casse that the ultimate goal of Tepin, Horse of the Year, is out of reach.
This is in spite of Tepinâ€™s perfect 2016 record of six straight, same as Chrome. Tepinâ€™s resume is enhanced by a triumph against the best â€śover thereâ€ť in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. Chrome can see that and raise her the Dubai World Cup.
This is why Casse chose the course of lesser resistance, the First Lady. â€śOur ultimate goal was Horse of the Year,â€ť Casse said on an NTRA conference call. â€śSo we waited until Sunday to see what California Chrome did. We realize now heâ€™ll be tough to beat.â€ť
In Casseâ€™s reasonable estimation, California Chrome would have to get beat by a significant margin in the Classic while Tepin wins out. â€śAnd that still might not be enough.â€ť
The next priority for Team Tepin is to encore in the Breederâ€™s Cup Mile. â€śWe looked at the best way to get there and going against fillies seems a little easier although not easy by any measure.â€ť
It will be tough to make money on Tepin on Saturday but Casse has a 2-year-old colt in the Breedersâ€™ Futurity, Classic Empire, he likes almost as much. He should be a reasonable price coming off a disaster in the Hopeful in which he wheeled at the start and threw his rider.
â€śWe didnâ€™t think Classic Empire could get beat at Saratoga,â€ť Casse said. â€śThen he did what he did.â€ť
Casse has added blinkers to the equipment of the Pioneer of the Nile colt, who went into the Hopeful two-for-two including a last-to-first score in the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs. â€śHeâ€™s trained really well with the blinkers.â€ť
Casse is also sky high on 2-year-old turf filly La Coronel, who will run in Keenelandâ€™s Jessamine next Wednesday. It might be tough to get a price on her. In her only grass start she buried New Money Honey by 4. The latter rebounded to win the Miss Grillo by almost 3 last weekend at Belmont.
â€śWe think sheâ€™s a superstar, another Catch a Glimpse,â€ť Casse said. All Catch a Glimpse has done is win seven of eight on turf, including the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and the Penn Mile against colts.
Another one to watch
Brad Cox will have an armada of horses in Keeneland stakes this weekend. Benner Island begins the parade in the Alcibiades on Friday. On Saturday, Spelling Again takes a shot at the Thoroughbred Club of America, Almasty is entered in the Woodford and Cash Control will tackle Tepin in the First Lady. Royal Nature goes in the Bourbon on Sunday.
Cox, who also was on the NTRA call, has no illusions about Cash Control taking down Tepin. Sheâ€™s entered in the hope she can grab a Grade 1 placing to enhance her value as a broodmare, Cox said. â€śBut anything can happen in horse racing.â€ť
Asked which of his stakes horses he feels has the best chance to get the major share of a purse, he zeroed in on Almasty, who should be a decent price. He won last yearâ€™s Commonwealth at Churchill but is winless in four starts in 2016, although he does have a pair of seconds and a third.
â€śHe had a big work at Churchill and heâ€™s doing really great,â€ť Cox said. â€śWeâ€™re really excited about him getting the job done.â€ť
Which way, Frosted?
If there is anyone who could steal the Horse of the Year crown from California Chrome, itâ€™s Frosted, whose Met Mile was one for the ages. It would take another race like that, soundly beating Chrome in the process in the Classic, to get Frosted into the HoY conversation. However, itâ€™s still uncertain where Frosted will land on Breedersâ€™s Cup weekend, the Mile or the Classic.
Ever the diplomat, Kiaran McLaughlin, said Sheikh Mohammad bin Al Maktoum, who races under the Godolphin banner, will make the call. But McLaughlin made it clear which way he wants to go. â€śI would go to the Classic.â€ť
Itâ€™s not just the opportunity to try California Chrome. McLaughlin said he doesnâ€™t like the shape of the Mile. If it were a one-turn mile, he would have no problem. But itâ€™s two turns, raising the likelihood of a traffic jam with a short run to the first turn.
McLaughlin said itâ€™s possible Frosted, who he said is doing great, will be cross-entered in both races. However, he feels the call will be made before pre-entries.
Rachelâ€™s only son coming back
The saga of Rachel Alexandra isnâ€™t over, according to McLaughlin. Her first foal to get to the races, stakes winner Rachelâ€™s Valentina, has been retired. But her year-older half-brother, Jessâ€™s Dream, who hasnâ€™t been seen since a breath-taking out of the clouds win at Saratoga in his maiden race is still in training.
Jessâ€™s Dream represents the final chance for further glory for Rachel Alexandra. Due to complications with her last pregnancy, it was announced she will not be bred again.
Hurricane delays Gulfstream West
Call it karma or call it Godâ€™s way of saying â€śthis lunacy has to stop.â€ť
Nature has done what the state of Florida refuses to do: shut down the Gulfstream West meeting at Calder--at least temporarily. With Hurricane Matthew bearing down on Florida, the first two days of the meeting have been canceled. The rest of the opening week is still in limbo.
Itâ€™s a disgrace that this meet still exists. Gulfstream officials donâ€™t want it. They have to move everything eight miles east. Track officials and the race caller will be in mobile facilities stacked on top of each other. (For the record, hurricane season doesnâ€™t end until Dec. 1.)
Indeed, Gulfstream is urging fans not to go to Calder, to do their betting via simulcast at the mother track, making racing a studio sport.
Itâ€™s an inconvenience for most horsemen, since the cards will be filled by horses shipping in from across town or further.
Most important, fans, when they finally get a look at the place, definitely wonâ€™t want any part of it. Itâ€™s racing amidst the ruins. Everyone is consigned to the track apron.
There is no cover from the brutal South Florida heat and torrential rains that are the norm this time of year. Complicating this, the Calder grandstand is in the final stages of its demolition. Thereâ€™s almost nothing but rubble remaining. (Hello, Hurricane Matthew with your 145 mph winds.)
There is no tote board and only three betting machines, the minimum the state demands. Simulcasting is completely out. Only one very tiny restroom will be in use.
All of this is to preserve Churchill Downsâ€™ casino at what used to be a racetrack. This was not supposed to happen. Slots were supposed to save racing. Instead they have destroyed Calder.
Itâ€™s a travesty to allow Churchill to keep its casino license under the circumstances. CDI has no part, other than geography, in conducting the meeting. Itâ€™s entirely a Gulfstream show.
If and when decoupling comes, this sham meeting will be history. It cannot happen soon enough.
Connect avoids Chrome
It was announced this week that Pennsylvania Derby upsetter Connect will skip the Breedersâ€™ Cup Classic and a meeting with California Chrome to run instead in the Cigar Mile.
So thanks to California Chrome, Connect is definitely out of the Classic and Frosted might be.
It makes you wonder how the Pegagus is going to get 11 game souls to put up a $1 million apiece and stay in training when they would normally be freshening for 2017 to serve as sacrificial lambs to the brilliance of California Chrome.
Written by Tom Jicha