Tuesday, November 05, 2013
Breeders’ Cup settles little when it comes to rightful titles
As always, the Breeders' Cup provided a scintillating couple of days of racing but the "world championships" failed to clearly identify North American champions in many divisions. An exception is Wise Dan, who should be the unanimous winner of a repeat triple crown: Horse of the Year, Turf Horse and Older Horse.
MIAMI, Nov. 5, 2013--The Breedersâ€™ Cup is a grand spectacle and a horse fanâ€™s Christmas, something to count down toward for months. However, its self designation of â€śworld championshipsâ€ť needs to be toned down lest it remain a source of ridicule. Typically, the 2013 renewal probably ignited more debates than it settled when it comes to even North American division championships.
One category that should be settled is Horse of the Year. Wise Dan deserves to be a lock to repeat. That there is even conversation otherwise is solely a product of contrarians, who resented him winning in 2012 and probably maintain the same opinions after his parallel campaign in 2013. Their oft-stated objection is that Wise Dan is too much of a specialist, racing almost exclusively at a mile on grass.
So what. Juveniles have won the title. Fillies and mares have won the title, usually on the basis of one win outside their division against males.
Game on Dude would have been an almost unanimous choice if he had won the Classic after racing all but once in California, where he routinely beat up on short fields with Clubhouse Ride his immediate victim three times and Kettle Corn twice. Either of these would have been 50-1 or better if they had made the Classic field.
A primary characteristic of champions is consistency. Wise Dan was almost perfect again this year. He won on the East Coast at Saratoga, in the Midwest at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, in Canada at Woodbine and on the West Coast at Santa Anita.
He won in April, May, June, August, September and November.
The Euros cleaned our clocks in every BC turf race but the Mile, where Wise Dan cleaned theirs. What more do the naysayers want?
More dĂ©jĂ vu. Wise Danâ€™s detractors might grudgingly concede him the big prize but rest assured there will be opinions written and spoken that he should not cop best older horse, also because he won only on turf.
If not him, who? To reiterate, Game on Dudeâ€™s entire campaign of beating up on the same creampuffs was exposed in the Classic. There were no excuses this time. He was ideally positioned throughout, right there at the top of the stretch on a track that favored this (although not as much as Friday) and backed up badly when he realized it wasnâ€™t Clubhouse Ride and Kettle Corn breathing down on him.
Some will offer Mucho Macho Man. But if Wise Dan was a specialist, what can you say about a horse whose only two wins were at Santa Anita in a compact span of five weeks?
The Eclipse voters will risk their credibility if they do not vote Wise Dan the same triple as last season: Horse of the Year, Turf Horse and Older Horse.
Very few other categories were settled at the â€śworld championships.â€ť New Yearâ€™s Day is the pro tem leader of the juvenile division off his upset win but the only other first on his resume is a maiden race. Whatâ€™s more, he ran slower than the fillies. With major 2-year-old races still to come at Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, Hollywood and even Delta Downs, this category is far from settled.
Same goes for the juvenile fillies. Sheâ€™s a Tiger is being talked up after being taken down but even Gary Stevens acknowledged on TV that she deserved to be DQâ€™ed. She also failed to hold a clear lead in her previous start. My hunch is her connections wonâ€™t risk her reputation around two turns during Hollywoodâ€™s final season, leaving the door open for a late season star. If she gets the Eclipse, it will be by process of elimination, hardly the criteria of a champion.
I canâ€™t believe Groupie Doll is being pushed by some as outstanding female sprinter. Letâ€™s review: she ran third to undistinguished foes at Ellis Park, beat a $4k claimer at Presque Isle Downs, was third best again at Keeneland, then came through on the same track where she won the title last year. It is no more rational to award her an encore championship than it would be to give the 2-year-old filly title to Ria Antonia.
Anybody hear of Dance to Bristol? She might have thrown in a clunker at Santa Anita but unlike Game on Dude, her prior resume--7 wins, 2 seconds in 9 starts--canâ€™t be faulted. She took on all comers and her only loss after winning 7 in a row was a second to undefeated Cluster of Stars.
The male sprint division is so bereft of outstanding players that Secret Circle could steal the title with similar, albeit lesser, credentials as Mucho Macho Man; a Breedersâ€™ Cup win, preceded by an optional claimer score. The 2011 BC Juvenile Sprint winner has never been beaten around one turn. Letâ€™s hope we get the opportunity before yearâ€™s end to see him attempt to wipe out any challenges to his superiority. He probably would be odds-on if Bob Baffert chose to have him tackle the Cigar Mile.
Speaking of the Cigar, TV commentators and some in the print media all but awarded the 3-year-old title to Will Take Charge after his gallant second in the Classic. Hold on. Shug McGaughey is pointing Kentucky Derby winner Orb to the Cigar.
Will Take Charge is still only 4-for-10 and he finished 8th, 7th and 10th in the Triple Crown races. His only Grade 1 win is the Travers. As disappointing as Orb has been since Derby Day, he is still 4-for-8, with two Grade 1â€™s, including the big one, and he finished ahead of WTC in each of the Triple Crown events. A bookend score in the Cigar, however improbable off his recent form, would move Orb to the top of the class again.
Update: After publication, it was announced that Orb has been retired. He is perfectly sound, so this is every bit as objectionable as Verrazano's retirement, which I railed against last week. Actually more so. There is no bigger drawing card in racing than a Kentucky Derby winner.)
The most spirited arguments from now until the Eclipse winners are revealed in January will be over 3-year-old filly honors. Beholder stated her case with a resounding triumph in the BC Distaff, her second Grade 1 against older rivals. Princess of Sylmar misfired badly Friday but has won the more prestigious races and defeated Beholder, a Santa Anita specialist, in their only previous meeting in the Kentucky Oaks.
No matter which one comes out on top, the division will have a stellar champion. This canâ€™t be said about many of the other categories.
Written by Tom Jicha
Friday, November 01, 2013
Verrazano with my head but not my heart
Verrazano looms like one of the most certain winners of the two-day Breeders' Cup carnival. Unfortunately, it will be the last time he'll be seen on the racetrack. His owners have opted to send the potential star of the 2014 season to the breeding shed prematurely. Shame on them.
MIAMI, Nov. 1, 2013--A quick way to go broke is to allow emotions to influence gambling decisions. I keep reminding myself of this as the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile approaches. I plan to make Verrazano one of my key plays; straight, in exactas and in multiple race wagers.
The only hesitance came when it was announced the also brilliant Graydar was pointing for the Mile. When he was pulled out, my confidence in Verrazano soared.
Then I read that Verrazanoâ€™s owners plan to retire him after the race. As a fan as much as a bettor, this made me furious. Verrazano is only 3 years-old, in perfect health (he wouldnâ€™t be running otherwise) and his career will have been exactly 10 months (Jan. 1-Nov. 1). He has been so dazzling in many of his victories, he could have been a major attraction next year, especially if he puts up a big win in the Mile.
There is absolutely no reason to ship him off to the breeding shed so soon, other than greed, and Verrazanoâ€™s owners, Michael Tabor and company, are already filthy rich. This is another reason to renew a call for my admittedly quixotic mission to have the Jockey Club and its overseas counterparts refuse to register any foal by a stallion younger than 5 at the time of conception.
All of this had part of me rooting for him to run up the track to diminish, even if only slightly, his appeal at stud. Fortunately, my better judgment rationalized that he is still one of the most likely winners of the two-day Breedersâ€™ Cup carnival. Whether or not I root for him isnâ€™t going to have any impact and I would be even angrier if my emotions induced me to let a horse I have a big opinion on get away.
The most inane analysis I have heard in the run-up to the Breedersâ€™ Cup is that Verrazano doesnâ€™t show up on the big days. This is based on miserable performances in the Kentucky Derby and Travers. Those two races have something in common far more germane than being contested on the biggest day at their respective tracks? Both were a mile and a quarter.
Verrazanoâ€™s ability to handle 10 furlongs has been in question since he won his first two starts by 24 lengths. Sometimes horses more suited for a mile can get a mile and a quarter under the right circumstances. Verrazano apparently isnâ€™t one of those. However heâ€™s demonstratively unbeatable up to nine furlongs.
Verrazano will be facing older opponents for the first time but no real stars. The biggest threat is another 3-year-old, Goldencents. But Goldencents drew the 12 hole, even worse than Verrazano in No. 10 given the exceedingly short run to the first turn. However, I'm counting on Verrazano to have sufficient speed to avoid being pushed into the parking lot.
Moreover, I need a single somewhere on Friday. My betting preference is Pick Threes and the races sandwiching the Mile, the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf, are impossible to narrow down.
Iâ€™m going to take the lazy way out and use the three Eurosâ€”Al Thakhira, Chriselliam and Vordaâ€”with former Euros, who are perfect in the U.S.â€”Testa Rossi and Clenorâ€”in the Fillies Turf.
Clenor exemplifies the superiority of Euros on grass. Clenor was an 0-for-3 maiden overseas. In the U.S., she is 3-for-3, two of them stakes.
Iâ€™m using similar strategy in the Juvenile Turf but including Bobbyâ€™s Kitten from the home team along with Euros Giovanni Boldini, Outstrip, Shamshon and Wilshire Boulevard.
Iâ€™d like to sharpshoot the Euros down to one or two per race but painful history has taught that when one of the invaders wins a Breedersâ€™ Cup race, itâ€™s often not the most heavily bet.
Emotion is going to be a factor in the Distaff but along with tested handicapping principles. Princess of Sylmar has been the best female in America since May. She proved that with the ease with which she ran past perfect-tripping, two-time Eclipse winner Royal Delta in the Beldame. If I save in horizontal bets, it will be with the home town favorite Beholder.
As if the Breedersâ€™ Cup isnâ€™t tough enough to figure, post positions have complicated several races. Artemis Agrotera got a big boost drawing the rail in the Juvenile Fillies while Sheâ€™s a Tiger had a stake driven through her chances when she pulled No. 10.
I donâ€™t want to be provincial but Calder standout Scandalous Act could be a big-ticket maker. Sheâ€™s been devastating in South Florida. The ease with which she swept through the Stallion Stakes is reminiscent of Awesome Feather, who came out of that series to win this race.
Dank doesn't need any help off her crushing Beverly D triumph but she got it when she drew the rail in the Filly & Mare Turf. Kittenâ€™s Dumpling, a winner of four of her last five, will be up against it breaking from No. 10 in a race that starts on a turn.
Why isnâ€™t anyone talking about Laughing? Sheâ€™s 4-for-4 this year. The horse she beat last time, Tannery, came back to win the E.P. Taylor. Her immediate victim two back, Pianist, rebounded to win the Athenia. Laughingâ€™s beaten foes also include Stephanieâ€™s Kitten and Dayathespa, both multiple stakes winners.
No race is as strongly influenced by the draw as the Juvenile. Havana and Strong Mandate, who might have been the first two choices in the wagering are buried outside in the 13 and 14, respectively.
I think Iâ€™m going to look elsewhere, maybe touted-over-the-moon Tap It Rich and â€śthe other Baffert,â€ť New Yearâ€™s Day.
Post isnâ€™t as much a factor in the other races, although Justin Phillip didnâ€™t get any favors drawing the rail in the Sprint and Mizdirection could hardly have drawn better, getting No. 12, in the Turf Sprint.
Iâ€™m against the defending Sprint champions, Groupie Doll and Trinniberg. Also, Little Mike in the Turf. Any of them win, I lose.
Euro filly The Fugue looks like the one to beat in the Turf but Big Blue Kitten also will be all over my tickets. Point of Entry will be one of the stories of the weekend if he can come back from a career-threatening injury and six-month layoff to win. Heâ€™ll have at least a small presence on my Pick 3 tickets.
Iâ€™m with Wise Dan, who has won his last nine on grass. If I save, it will be with Euros. Wise Danâ€™s last and only loss on the inner course? The 2011 Shadwell Turf Mile. Maybe itâ€™s something about the raceâ€™s name.
Finally, I expect Game on Dude to win the Classic and Horse of the Year on his home track.
Written by Tom Jicha
Friday, October 25, 2013
BC: Great racing and great stories for TV
The Breeders' Cup does a lot of annoying little things during the year (like adding an Arabian race) but when the two event days arrive there is no finer spectacle. This year's renewal is loaded with the two elements for a great couple of days: super racing with full fields and no obvious odds-on favorites and lots of heart-tugging stories for NBC to court and hold casual fans on TV.
MIAMI, Oct. 25, 2013--Horse players love deep, full fields. Television loves touchy-feeling, heart-tugging stories. All will be well served next weekend at the Breedersâ€™ Cup.
The 14-race carnival is going to be a bettorâ€™s delight with more ways to part with your money than at a brothel with a casino.
Twelve of the races have at least a dozen starters pre-entered. One of the exceptions, the Distaff, might be the most anticipated race of the two days. The other, the Marathon, is almost as much a novelty event as the Arabian race shamelessly tacked onto Fridayâ€™s card.
If there is a favorite who will go to the post at less than 2-1, I donâ€™t see it. Some might suggest Game on Dude in the Classic. But the field is quality laden, including the first four finishers from last year, surging Graydar and highly touted Euro Declaration of War. Itâ€™s also the get-out race, so there will be a lot of beat-the-favorite shopping. If there was an over/under on 2-1, I would tap out on the over.
Reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan might have been close to odds-on had he not had his winning streak broken in the Shadwell Drenched Kitty Litter Mile. That utterly excusable blemish on his record and the presence of some well regarded Euros should push his price out of the blinking lights zone.
Groupie Doll was 70 cents on the dollar in the 2012 Filly and Mare Sprint. Off her mediocre resume this season, she should be at least five times that as she seeks to repeat.
Solely because it is a six-horse field, the Distaff could produce the lowest priced favorite of the two days. However, itâ€™s not obvious who the public will settle upon as favorite among the Big Threeâ€”Royal Delta, Princess of Sylmar and Beholder. (My guess would be Royal Delta.) Close Hatches is also going to pull a lot of support. So itâ€™s hard to foresee anyone going off less than 2-1.
Itâ€™s also going to be a joy for Team NBC with sufficient heart-tugging sagas to ensure there wonâ€™t be a dead spot throughout the two days. The Classic alone, the only BC race reserved for the NBC broadcast network, should provide a treasure trove of TV gold. (If the prime time telecast draws good ratings, it will be another nail in the coffin of Belmont Parkâ€™s chances to ever host the event again.)
The saga of Paynterâ€™s comeback from the near-dead to not only race again but to be considered among the contenders in the marquee event, is the stuff of big screen movies. Should Paynter make it to the winnerâ€™s circle, screenwriters all over Hollywood will begin tapping out scripts, if they havenâ€™t already.
Kathy Ritvoâ€™s inspiring tale of rebounding from a heart transplant to resume full-time duties as the mother of two children and the trainer of Mucho Macho Man bears retelling. The Classic falls less than two weeks before the fifth anniversary of her life-saving surgery.
The return of D. Wayne Lukas, at age 78, to racingâ€™s center stage, is sure to garner NBC's attention. Several years after it seemed The Coachâ€™s time had passed, he could be on the verge of sending out a couple of champions, 3-year-old Will Take Charge and 2-year-old Strong Mandate. D. Wayne has his detractors but put him in front of a camera and racing has no finer ambassador.
Also camera-friendly Bob Baffert, Paynterâ€™s trainer, has another comeback story with Secret Circle, who won the 2011 BC Juvenile Sprint and was on the Kentucky Derby trail the following spring until an injury sent him to the sidelines for 18 months. He goes for a second Breedersâ€™ Cup title in the Sprint, coming back quickly off one dynamite win at Santa Anita on Oct. 14.
This time a year ago, Gary Stevens was in the seventh year of retirement, talking about racing on TV. He comes into this Breedersâ€™ Cup back at the top of the game, looking to add a Breedersâ€™ Cup score to his Triple Crown triumph in the Preakness aboard Oxbow, among many other stakes victories. He might even rejoin his old colleagues at NBC between mounts.
Point of Entryâ€™s comeback from what seemed to be a career-ending injury isnâ€™t as dramatic as Paynterâ€™s renaissance but the tender love and care it took from Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Shug McGaughey and his staff to get him back to the races at the highest level is sure to be prominent in the run-up to the Turf.
Jim Rome works for another company but this wonâ€™t deter the NBC people from getting him on camera when his Mizdirection goes for a second Turf Sprint title. â€śRomeyâ€ť is another stellar advertisement for the game. He loves to talk about how in spite of his voluminous knowledge of most sports, he knew almost nothing about racing until he was coaxed into it and now he is having the time of his life.
Great racing, great television; it should be a great weekend.
Written by Tom Jicha