Friday, November 05, 2010

Goldi No Lock

Louisville, November 6, 2010--Well, we're going to try to beat the big mare today.

No, not that one, the other one.

I know Freddie Head said that Goldikova's better now than she's ever been. Whether or not that's true doesn't mean she'll become the first three time winner in Breeders' Cup history. In our view, this field is tougher than last year's. Deeper, too. And neither did she draw well.

Rather than take Head at his word, I'll take the word of international handicapping ace Nick Mordin who opined on last night's Tele Clinic that two demanding races in a row over unsuitable ground takes its toll. She raced on soft turf in her last two starts, very soft by U.S. standards, finishing second then winning. Both those efforts were enormous; Mordin's argument makes sense.

Besides,a very wide draw at 6-5 early line odds? Not the kind of key I'm looking for, $800,000 Pick SIx carryover or not.

The problem is five of the remaining members of the 2010 Mile field can win: Court Vision, Gio Ponti, Paco Boy, The Usual Q. T. and Proviso.

Anyone who watched Gio Ponti win the Shadwell Mile under disdainfully confident handling probably thinks that 4-1 early line are odds a bargain. They are entitled to that, of course. But that's not the big fun we're seeking.

The big fun would be a win by either The Usual Q. T. (15-1) or Proviso (12-1).

The Usual Q. T. was probably best given his trip in the Woodbine Mile. Don't take my word for it; check out the replay online. Court Vision got the money but the California 4-year-old should have if the circumstances were different. Even if they weren't, the odds would provide a reward commensurate with the risk. Why not go for it?

(Check today's Feature Race Analysis for a betting approach to today's Mile).

And how about the filly, Proviso, the winner of four straight G1s for Bill Mott? All she did to win those last two races was a final three-eighths of a mile in :33 winning the DIana and a final quarter of :22 while winning the Fist Lady at Keeneland. The Mile, per usual, should be a beauty.