Friday, November 05, 2010

Big Gamble Pays Huge Dividend

Louisville, Filly Friday, November 5, 2010--Sometimes thinking you're a real sharp handicapper can get you trouble. After all, I bet on Dubai Majesty to win the Grade 2 at Keeneland last time and she was sharp in victory. No reason she wouldn't run well again, except that she was always better at three-quarters of a mile than at seven-eighths.

How was I to know that Bret Calhoun's filly would turn the Filly & Mare Sprint into a six furlong race?

But that's exactly what she did, opening an insurmountable lead with a furlong to go leaving the late running Switch with too much to do. And so the Martin Racing Stable took a $90,000 gamble to supplement her into the race. Quick, what's 54 percent of a million bucks? But whatever she might have lacked at the distance, it was made up for her love of Churchill. The F & M Sprint was her fourth win in seven starts at Churchill.

"She missed a couple of Grade 1s at 7 furlongs, but today the distance turned out to be OK." It was jockey Jamie Theriot's first Breeders' Cup victory. Nice when that happens in front of your hometown fans.

She's in a Horses of Racing Age sale on Sunday. "We'll see what happens," the owner said. "We're going to enjoy the day and talk it over tomorrow."

What's Cookin?

I don't usually feel too badly for millionaires when they run into hard luck, but I was really happy for celebrity chef Bobby Flay who's put on ton of money into the game and has, you know, run into hard luck. But not the Juvenile FIllies Turf.

On the bit from the gate, Garrett Gomez, who was carried out of here on a stretch yesterday following a turf race, but suffering only bumps and bruises, engineered a clear outside trip from the 11 post, losing only reasonable ground on the first turn and through the backstretch run.

Lucky for him that when he made his bid with More Than Real on the stretch turn and into the lane, the four leaders at the time were all a minimum of about 60-1. Meanwhile, heavy favorite Winter Memories was making a good rail run, moved out slightly in the stretch, awaited room briefly, then set sail after the leader but More Than Real was more than ready for the challenge.

Jose Lezcano on the even money favorite claimed foul, seemingly more to save face than exact justice. Correctly, the result was allowed to stand. Todd Pletcher, who entered 11 horses over the two day festival, got off quickly, and you don't often get 13-1 on a live Pletcher entrant. It was Pletcher's fourth career Breeders' Cup score.

They should run the Breeders Cup every day!

* * *

Fireworks at the Downs

The thing about marathons is that, you know, there slower paced horses, and the distance will separate them, kind of boring most of the time.

Well, there were fireworks unlike we and a national television audience has ever seen. Calvin Borel, America’s jockey, mild mannered, emotional, yes sir and no ma’m Calvin.

Borel needed to be restrained and taken to the ground after a potentially extremely dangerous situation on the third turn of the Breeders’ Cup Marathon, the lid-lifter on Breeders’ Cup 27, began when Javier Castellano came out abruptly, causing Romp to clip heels and stumble dramatically. It was remarkable that Martin Garcia kept his purchase on the Marathon longshot.

Meanwhile, Borel on solid contender A.U. Miner was making his run outside Romp and when Romp stumbled, he interfered with A. U. Miner who was making a solid bid outside Romp.

Borel and Castellano had words at the scale when it appeared that Borel, who was waving his finger in Castellano’s face when, according to sources on the scene, Castellano threw a punch at Borel at which point all hell broke loose. Eventually, Borel was escorted back to the jock’s room while Castellano explained his ride to the Churchill stewards.

A local professional confided that Borel has been riding in bad form, first at the recently concluded Keeneland meet, then at this young meeting.

In fact, he appeared to make ill-timed moves aboard A. U. Miner on the second turn and backstretch. We tried to follow the incident that led to the fisticuffs but at that point, the patrol camera switched angles making it impossible to discern exactly what happened.

It was a strange and frightening start to the day.

* * *

You Can Go Home Again

It’s been a while, actually, back to the Downs for the first time since the remodeling. It’s the same, only very different.

After a few aborted attempts to find the elevator to the spanking brand new media center--a remarkable job, really, and you’re still able to walk out on the terrace and watch races live through binoculars.

Seems a long time since I’ve done that, too.

So I walked into the Churchill Media offices where Churchill Media Director Darren Rogers welcomed me with the equivalent that said look what the cat dragged in--thought you were never coming back.

I said that I finally get my parking space back. (Inside joke). He said we usually reserve those for people who regularly show up.

Ouch! Where am I, Aqueduct?

It’s been a while, actually, back to the Downs for the first time since the remodeling. It’s the same, only very different.

After a few aborted attempts to find the elevator to the spanking brand new media center--a remarkable job, really, and you’re still able to walk out on the terrace and watch races live through binoculars.

Seems a long time since I’ve done that, too.

So I walked into the Churchill Media offices where Churchill Media Director Darren Rogers welcomed me with the equivalent that said look what the cat dragged in--thought you were never coming back.

I said that I finally get my parking space back. (Inside joke). He said we usually reserve those for people who regularly show up.

Ouch! Where am I, Aqueduct?

No, it’s definitely Louisville. Can see Cardinal Stadium from my seat. And if I walked over to the window, I could look down slightly and see the world famous Twin Spires.

That was a first, but it’s called progress--and corporate ownership.

Per usual, speaking for myself, the folks at Churchill cannot be more accommodating.

Time to settle in now. First Breeders’ Cup event, the Marathon, is less than two hours away.

Now, where did I put those PP’s?o, it’s definitely Louisville. Can see Cardinal Stadium from my seat. And if I walked over to the window, I could look down slightly and see the world famous Twin Spires.

That was a first, but it’s called progress--and corporate ownership.

Per usual, speaking for myself, the folks at Churchill cannot be more accommodating.

Time to settle in now. First Breeders’ Cup event, the Marathon, is less than two hours away.

Now, where did I put those PP’s?

Thursday, November 04, 2010

It’s the Breeders’ Cup: Bet On It

Louisville--It’s here, finally, the greatest wagering event this side of the Kentucky Derby. Fourteen skull-crushing races over two days that present enormous challenges for handicappers and fans.

And potential for huge profits, too.

As you watch the races and construct a wagering game plan, be sure to develop a methodology you’re comfortable with stick to it.

Handicappers are sure to have stronger opinions in some races than others. Resultantly, you need to play to your personal betting strengths just as you do, hopefully, every day.

Consistency in wagering is tantamount, especially in contentious races that come at you rat-tat-tat the way Breeders‘ Cup event days do.

Whatever a handicapper or bettor’s level of expertise, one never knows with certitude when the big score is coming, regardless of strength of opinion.

A plan that makes sense might be to build chaos into your play and pray the racing gods are smiling.

This is intended as a primer for the first-time starters out there and hopefully some sage advice for the HRI faithful.

Without the hulking presence of the great Zenyatta, hunting bigger game in the open version of this race tomorrow, the door is wide open despite the presence of protem 3-year-old filly champion Blind Luck (9-5).

To reiterate, Blind Luck has made her sixth transcontinental trip for her first try against elders. She’s run some amazing races this season--such as her Kentucky Oaks on this track from impossible position.

But now she must do so all over again, and against the deepest field she’s ever encountered. Do it from a wide post, too. Her performance figures have been consistently faster than the group.

But at 9-5, with a remote possibility of a sealed wet track?

As this is written, weather handicappers are calling for a chance of showers or snow flurries starting at 1 a.m. through 4 p.m., which coincides with the first Breeders’ Cup event, the Marathon. The high is projected at 49 degrees. Saturday, they’re calling for mostly sunny skies with a high of 53 degrees.

But we’ll look at the nine-furlong Ladies Classic’s strongest contenders, assessing their chances as a most likely winner or a possible value play.

The race profile indicates that stalkers and those with an ability to handle the distance successfully, especially here, are key.

Generally, fillies with stamina that have been effective in G1 company, combined with a fondness for Churchill Downs, give those performers a solid edge.

Most Distaff winners have come from the races you recognize; the fall preps in California, Kentucky and New York. Historically, that’s been the way to go.

After Blind Luck, other likely winners include the ultra consistent, ultra tough speedster Life At Ten; Malibu Prayer, the other classy Pletcher trainee; Bill Mott’s Unrivaled Belle and the developing three-year-old Havre De Grace, the filly that defeated Blind Luck at Parx while getting a 10-pound weight pull.

Price shot fans should also consider Spinster winner Acoma, who’s making her final career start. It’s indicative of what this event’s about; the Spinster winner is 20-1.

I’m a huge fan of Jerry Hollendorfer 3-year-old filly, who was accomplished at 2 but her Oaks was simply on another level. But it’s difficult taking a short price from a wide post in a contentious field following an arduous campaign.

Life At Ten has won five of six starts this year and all three lifetime races at today’s distance. She can stalk from close range and can also fall out on the lead from the pole position and not look back. The only question is her lack of Churchill experience.

While Malibu Prayer has not been quite as consistent, and seems a need-to-lead type for her best race, she did win her only start at Churchill Downs.

While Harve De Grace has a winning late-developing profile, she lacks Churchill experience and picks up eight pounds off her recent Cotillion score. She is facing her toughest test ever at scale weights.

Unrivaled Belle has had her moments. Appearing a tad short and overconfidently handled in the Beldame, her fourth lifetime placing in as many starts at the G1 level, she returns to the surface that produced her lifetime best figure.

That effort came in the La Troienne this spring when she proved more photogenic than Rachel Alexandra in a very game effort.

Projecting race shape it would be interesting to see whether the speed signed on here will allow Unrivaled Belle a stalking trip from close range, her best game in our view. The outside position can allow her to do that.

Acoma is excellent value on the early line. Coming in off a sharp Spinster score with an excellent go-back performance figure, she’s 2-for-2 at Churchill and won her only 9 furlong start.

The 5-year-old mare is versatile and won her only start beneath Alan Garcia, who rides her back today. Whichever filly wins the Ladies Classic, she will have earned it. For a betting strategy, see today’s feature race analysis.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

One Way or Another, a Coronation Awaits

LOUISVILLE, KY., November 3, 2010--Say what you will about the chutzpah of Breeders’ Cup Ltd. Referring to their series as “World Championships,” but most of America’s best horses and a unique European champion will be on display tomorrow and Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Nine of the 10 Top Ten in the final pre-Breeders’ Cup NTRA Thoroughbred Poll will be racing, all but Richard’s Kid. That multiple Grade 1 winner has a future date in Dubai.

At stake will be championship titles in every division including, of course, 2010 Horse of the Year. Of the nine that will compete, only one, three-year-old filly Blind Luck, has locked up an Eclipse in that division no matter what happens tomorrow at 7:30 p.m.

Much already has been written about Zenyatta’s ability to earn the 2010 Horse of the Year title without a repeat victory in the Classic. But I can’t think of a single rival that got their own Sports Illustrated spread or had their names uttered in the same sentence with Oprah’s. Or had their names in lights welcoming visitors to the Standiford Airport while wishing her well on Saturday.

Voters ultimately will have to decide what all that’s ultimately worth when considering what a Horse of the Year should be. Traditionally, it has been the horse--usually an older male--with the best record in open company. But there’s no Horse of the Year rule book that says that’s the way it ought to be.
In 1965, a time when common sense had a better chance to prevail, there were Co-Horses of the Year. One was the sensational juvenile filly Moccasin. But would she have defeated Co-Horse of the Year Roman Brother at equal weights at nine or 10 furlongs?

In 1997, the dominant juvenile champion, undefeated Favorite Trick, was voted Horse of the Year. His main weapon was speed. So which would you have backed in a proverbial match race: Favorite Trick or Skip Away?

In 1972, juvenile champion Secretariat won the first of consecutive Horse of the Year titles. But could Big Red have beaten the likes of the Whitney-Travers-Woodward winning Key To The Mint?

OK, so maybe he could have; Secretariat is widely acknowledged as the likely best of all time, certainly of the modern era, anyway.

Should Zenyatta win the Classic, there will be many who would argue that since she went 20-for-20, with back-to-back Classic victories, that distinction rightfully should be hers.

Perfection is impossible to knock. But wouldn’t you love to have seen Zenyatta vs. Secretariat at Belmont Park on the first Saturday of June, 1973? So, without a textbook definition, what does Horse of the Year really mean? And how do athletes from different eras compare, anyway?

As I was flying over one red state after another on my way to the Land of Rand Paul, I read Tom Pedulla’s feature piece on Zenyatta in USA Today and I thought about how superlatives don’t seem hyperbolic when she’s the subject. Exaggerated praise seems to come as easily as most of her 19 wins.

Sunday’s “60 Minutes” piece was more Jack Whittaker than Mike Wallace which is to say that it was reverential. CBS had a healthy respect for horse racing back the--and the racetrack isn’t the only sport I wish to hear Hayward Hale Broun again, waxing as softly and eloquently as his madras jackets were loud.

But when NTRA conducts its final poll on Monday, Week 36, for national release on Tuesday, the scores can really change depending on what happens at 6:45 Saturday night. Once again this week, Zenyatta was a unanimous selection.

Of course, there is sentiment for and Quality Road and Blame, each a deserving candidate. Quality Road has the more impressive resume, but Blame did run him down with a weight pull at Saratoga. If somehow he can do that again Saturday, the score between those two would appeared settled rather definitively.

There’s Horse of the Year support for Blind Luck, should her sixth transcontinental journey against America’s top older females prove successful. That’s a lot of traveling for any horse, but being a filly makes it special. “All the races I wanted to win were back East,” said Jerry Hollander at the post draw.

And should Goldikova win her third Mile, the first three-time winner in Cup history, how would that not be worthy of serious consideration.

But we love our Derby colts in America and Lookin At Lucky, the best of them, ranked second to only the “big mare,” will get his chance to put the deepest field of the year in his rear view, along with those horrible memories in May.

Any of the above are worthy of serious consideration. Then there’s Zenyatta, of whom Dale Romans on Tuesday said, “she came along to help racing when we’ve needed it the most.” On that, who could honestly disagree?

Tomorrow: Is Moss Having Some Fun, or Will Zenyatta Race Again in 2011?