I wish I could take credit for this idea but I can’t. As I walked off the set of Capital Off-Track Betting’s “Handicappers’ Report” Saturday morning, my co-host, a USC graduate who probably knows more about West Coast racing than anyone on this side of the continent, suggested I reach out to you.
First, a question. Did you happen to see the feature race from Longchamp on Sunday? How about that Zarkava? An undefeated three-year-old filly who underscored her greatness by defeating males in Europe’s most prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
I think you know where I'm going with this. I want you to take a page out of Jess Jackson’s book, who brought his horse back at 4 and devoted 2008 to putting his horse’s greatness in a historical context. He’s done that, even if he fails to win the Classic, or decides to remain on the sidelines. Curlin is, after all, America’s first and only “Ten Million Dollar Man.”
For the good of the game, it would be great if you raced your wonderful mare against the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. For your program, your legacy, and the stature of the brilliant Zenyatta, it’s all upside.
Your trainer, John Shirreffs, recently appeared on another Capital OTB show, “Down the Stretch,” and said that Zenyatta would make her final start of the year in the Ladies Distaff, leaving the door open for a possible five-year-old campaign. He said that winning the Distaff over the deepest field of equine females assembled this year would be quite an achievement. And it would.
But how often do events conspire so favorably that affords an opportunity to make history? Zarkava was magnificent winning the Arc, the first filly in 15 years. But a filly winning the Arc is not unique. In fact, fillies won five straight Arcs, from 1979 to 1983, 17 in Arc history. But no filly has ever won the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
While those inside the game and its most knowledgeable fans don’t actively discriminate, great fillies beating other fillies don’t capture the imagination the same way males do. Is that fair? Hardly. But isn’t that the reality?
Anyone around the game longer than five minutes knows that undefeated champion Personal Ensign was truly a great mare. Who could forget the most relentless stretch run in Distaff history in which Personal Ensign beat another filly, Winning Colors, who beat the boys in the Kentucky Derby? And, of course, Personal Ensign beat the boys in the storied Whitney.
But in the public’s perception, was Personal Ensign, rightly or wrongly, the equal of Ruffian? I don‘t think anyone believes that. Fillies have to do something to set them themselves apart.
Ruffian had one style: go, go, go. And it was that style, and the hell-bent-for-leather scenario unique to match racing, that led to her tragic accident. But according to your jockey, Mike Smith, your filly rates herself, saying that she's as comfortable stalking a moderate pace as she is sitting far behind hot fractions.
Smith says, too, that Zenyatta has only recently learned how to run, putting herself into races when she wants, no longer needing urging to do so. And, of course, she has the physical tools, an amazon of a filly.
Of profound significance is the fact that Smith never has gotten to the bottom of her and is beginning to think she might be the best horse of either sex he’s ridden, which includes not only Azeri but males Holy Bull and Skip Away, voted Horse of the Year in 2002, 1994 and 1998, respectively.
That covers as much ground as your filly’s tremendous stride.
Mr. Sherriffs and yourself probably believe it’s poor business to run her against your colt, Tiago, who’s coming up to this Classic off a fine prep race. That's the common wisdom but this is a unique situation.
This is a chance to not only win a Horse of the Year title by becoming the only filly in a quarter-century to win a Classic and place the name Zenyatta in the same conversation with Ruffian. And only a victory over a reigning Horse of the Year and a dual classics Derby winner in the same race can do that if your decision is to send her home after the Breeders' Cup.
In a game where nothing is certain, the stars could not be aligned any better. The two favorites have come 3,000 miles to race on a surface over which neither has run. And as we have all seen, good synthetic workouts do not guarantee good synthetic performance.
All your filly need do is walk across the barn area and into the Santa Anita starting gate. And your rider has said something else: Mike Smith said that of all the synthetic surfaces over which Zenyatta has run, she likes Pro Ride the best.
On the Equiform performance figure scale--which recently drew favorable reviews from Horseplayer magazine--none of the big three are coming up to the Classic better than your filly. Big Brown’s numbers have flattened after earning a lifetime best figure in the Derby. Curlin’s best two figures came in last year’s Preakness and the sloppy-track Classic, his lifetime top.
But your filly is still developing as she grows into her monstrous frame. She peaked winning the Clement Hirsch, virtually matching Big Brown’s and Curlin’s fast-track tops as she continues to move forward. And for this race she’s coming off a “soft win” in the Lady’s Secret, meaning her pace and final figures indicate she won within herself, just the way it looked to the naked eye.
With the filly and mare championship assured with her sound defeat of Ginger Punch in the Apple Blossom, a worthy effort in defeat historically could do for Zenyatta what a remarkable placing in the Jockey Club Gold Cup did for Seattle Slew. But of the big three, Zenyatta is the only one that projects to move forward to a career best. And she need not do so to win.
Horse of the Year and household-name status awaits. Zenyatta has earned and deserves this opportunity Mr. Moss. Run your filly in the Classic, making it the race of this or any other year. She'll win. All hail Zenyatta: Toast of the Racing World.
Thanks for your time, Mr. Moss.
Respectfully,
John Pricci


08 Oct 2008 at 09:09 am | #
Hi John,
Zarkava’s Arc was one of the finest in years. But I do believe that was her first race against colts. John Sherreffs spells his name this way, and your proposed scenario would be absolutely fantastic.
By the way, do you know who the only filly is to ever hit the board in the B.C. Classic? And she did it after finishing eighth in the Arc? Jolypha, ridden by Pat Eddery. She finished third behind A.P. Indy and Pleasant Tap in the 1992 B.C. Classic. She had won the French Oaks and Prix Vermeille during her 3-year-old season that year.
Enjoy the Breeders’ Cup John!
08 Oct 2008 at 10:31 am | #
Jim,
Thanks for pointing out my error. For some reason I thought the Prix Vermeille was an open race. But I did get the trainer’s name correct. Now if my selections could only bat .500. Again, thanks for your interest, and I’d enjoy the Cup a whole lot more if the filly entered the Classic.
John
08 Oct 2008 at 10:39 am | #
Sorry about that John. It’s just that I’ve seen Sherriffs’ name spelled Sherreffs.
08 Oct 2008 at 03:11 pm | #
The late great filly Pebbles from 1985’s Breeders’ Cup Turf would’ve stepped up to this challenge back in the day had there been a synthetic surface instead of dirt.
08 Oct 2008 at 03:42 pm | #
John,
Your proposal is insane. This mare’s broodmare value would be a flatline even with a win. In today’s economic swirl there is no upside to this idea. While our industry is under the fragile microscope of PETA and the rest of the kooks, any minor problem would be fuel for the flame. Stick with handicapping John, your out of your league in this arena.
08 Oct 2008 at 04:01 pm | #
Glimmer:
You’re right about Pebbles. She was a beast.
Todd:
I don’t believe Zenyatta’s value would flat-line off a single defeat vs males.
Your point is well taken re: PETA. But you’ve seen this filly, haven’t you? And you believe she’s not suited to the challenge? You’re entitled to an opinion, of course. We’ll agree to disagree. Besides, PETA will picket the event regardless.
Finally, I’ve handicapped the big three and am prepared to bet my money. Perhaps you’d like to offer me a point better?
Thanks for taking the time to comment.
John
08 Oct 2008 at 04:23 pm | #
John,
I have loved Zenyatta since her first trip to the races. I wrote on my website after the Preakness that if they put Curlin , Big Brown and Zenyatta in the gate for the Classic , Zenyatta would win by open lengths.
She is the best horse I’ve seen in a very long time.
I must also say something regarding Todd’s comments above. Did you ever think for some of us, its all about the sport of it ,just watching a superior filly stomp the boys. Why doesn’t PETA stop the horse slaughter still going on in the USA ?? Its not in the spot light like horse racing. PETA’s just trying to get their name in the paper. Whats would be more ethical than stopping horses from being slaughtered and shipped to other countries for food??
08 Oct 2008 at 04:38 pm | #
We want to see the best run, I would like to see her run, and for PETA, here is a headline from the onion the other day said something like ‘peta commandos
raid camp site, kill 47 christians, save rabbit’
PETA should work on real issues.
08 Oct 2008 at 08:05 pm | #
Thanks for posting this John, I agree wholeheartedly, let’s hope he reads it!
08 Oct 2008 at 10:43 pm | #
The correct spelling of John’s name is Shirreffs. He’s not a cop.
Todd - If PETA wants a spot to start criticizing racing, it’s the breeding side, so maybe Zenyatta’s breeding value isn’t what’s most important in this case. And there IS an economic upside to running in the Classic over the “Ladies Classic” - the PURSE.
09 Oct 2008 at 08:48 am | #
REMEMBER AZERI !!!!!
If Music Note wins the DISTAFF and Zenyatta is well beaten in the CLASSIC…
ZENYATTA IS GREAT, BUT SHE CAN’T BEAT CURLIN.
09 Oct 2008 at 12:17 pm | #
John,
She would come in second. The good fillies and mares consistently come in second when they face the boys. She will be better than 12 of the males, but one of them will be beat her.
Pick any one:Curlin, Well Armed, Col. John, Big Brown, Go Between, even Student Council, or maybe one of the big shots crossing the pond.
She would beat all but one of the above...She is great but this year’s field is loaded with really good horses. Why do it for second, ‘cause she ain’t beating ALL of the above?
09 Oct 2008 at 05:12 pm | #
Fun diversity of opinion. I’m afriad the only one that counts is Mr. Moss’s. I know that it would be great to watch. Thank you one and all.
John