Losers walking around with money in their pockets are always dangerous, not to be trusted. Some horse always reaches out and grabs them.
Bill Barich
I wouldn't bet on a horse unless he came up to my house and told me himself.
Eubie Blake (1975)
How do you ’cap ’em?
I’m a notoriously bad handicapper. There are two reasons for this:
1. The Most Obvious, I rarely do it.
2. I lose patience.
I feel ugly every time a lose a race like I expect to win the lottery or something. But maybe if I were armed to the teeth and took some adderall I’d be primed to follow in the footsteps of our beloved Preach.
Some history. My approach largely hinges on pace. Speed figures haven’t meant a whole lot to me. Maybe it’s because most horses running against one another have similar speed figures so it becomes a wash. They all seem to be within 5 or 10 Beyer Speed Figures of one another. Now, before the BSF was bought by DRF, and you read Picking Winners, you had an edge.
Thoro-Graphs are nice in that they factor in for a bad trip. I bet Union Rags’s sheet number for the BC Juvenile is monumentally lower than Hansen’s (the lower number being best with Thoro-Graphs … for those who may not know. Who am I kidding? YOU three know.) Guess what it is. UR ran a 2, Hansen a 6, and Hansen won.
Another reason I’m lousy at handicapping is I’m bad at placing conflicting tickets— going up to the window knowing I'm dropping more bank a losing ticket to cover another one. Hedging is smart, but it’s a mental barrier for this bilge-drinking wannabe.
Then there are trip handicappers, name handicappers, horse color handicappers, video handicappers, paddock handicappers, and the short, bedeviling, pretentious handicappers. There’s kind handicappers who offer picks, and others who squirrel them away like the Pentagon Papers.
Some people have success with the daily program, others use Daily Racing Form. DRF helped me win with Curlin and Hard Spun in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup. Thoro-Graphs helped me pick Awesome Flower in the 2010 BC.
My losing periodical of choice has always been DRF. It’s what I learned on, so it’s a crutch, but I’m ready to move on if I’m ever to have a fun day at the Racino, track, or Vegas.
Oh, brothers, where art thou?
11 Sep 2012 at 05:03 pm | #
An amateur alchemist checked his jars containing small pieces of steel soaking in various combinations of chemicals. To his amazement, one jar glowed yellow. With heart pounding he raced to an accredited jeweler who informed him that the former piece of steel was pure gold.
The jeweler said that he was going to be a rich man. The alchemist said I hope you are right; that the book on how I did it sells well.
11 Sep 2012 at 05:04 pm | #
I loved it; it almost made me cry. There is always a winner around every corner.
TTT
11 Sep 2012 at 05:27 pm | #
B,
Whether it’s Beyer’s, TG’s or Equiform Energy Figures, don’t bother looking at the numbers if you’re not going to trust them. “Five or 10 points” on virtually any scale means five or 10 lengths. that is NOT insignificant.
The occasional handicapper should narrow down his choices to a handful of logical contenders, using traditional variables such as class, trainer, jockey, surface, etc.
The recommendation here would be to watch video of the contenders to break ties, concentrating on the better races--never mind the WMC rebuttal sure to come--because you’ll be able to find video of stakes races more readily online. (Of course, ADWs have video of all races available).
Above all, when you make that decision, remember that’s it’s about price, not about horse. Sometimes 8-5 can be value and 8-1 can be an underlay. Easier said than done, of course.
Remember the old line about getting to Carnegie Hall: Practice, practice, practice. Unfortunately, all the practice in the world will never make perfect in this game-which is why price is so important.
Until you’re comfortable, keep it as simple as possible. There’s no rush; something to be gleaned every day--and that goes for everyone.
11 Sep 2012 at 05:41 pm | #
Thanks, JRP, shows how much I know! I didn’t realize that each number corresponds to a length. So, yes, very significant.
I need to start playing to put myself in conflicting circumstances because I’m running out of things to write about!
11 Sep 2012 at 06:57 pm | #
B,
If you want to be a winner, take this advice; take two aspirins, play the Preach Daily Feature Race Analysis and call me in the morning. Has worked for five years running.
On a serious note today is 9-11, We must never forget. I will never forget the sight of the plume of smoke covering the Manhattan skyline visable from my office on Long Island. I will never forget the thought of innocent people jumping out of windows with no alternative. I will never forget the endless fire truck ladders lining my neighborhoods for the funerals. I will never forget the heroic efforts of the people on the plane who said lets roll. I will never forget being the parent of a child in school that day.
I also will never forget the entertainment distraction that horseracing and baseball gave me and fellow New Yorkers following the horrific day. I will never forget the homerun Mike Piazza hit on the first day baseball returned. I will never forget the unbelievable World Series games 4 and 5 at Yankee Stadium. I will never forget my first time back to my hometown track Belmont Park. It was JCGC day where a horse named Aptitude trained by native New Yorker Bobby Frankel, ridden by Jerry Bailey and owned by ironically the Prince of Saudi Arabia, blew the field away putting up a BSF of 123. Aptitude passed away in the breeding shed at the young age of 15 this past April in Argentina. Bobby passed away a couple years ago. Jerry has since retired. The Prince now has a superhorse named Frankel.
Life goes on, sports go on, horseracing goes on, winning and losing tickets will go on, but we must never forget.
and the beat goes on with who better today than the BOSS…
Can’t see nothin’ in front of me
Can’t see nothin’ coming up behind
I make my way through this darkness
I can’t feel nothing but this chain that binds me
Lost track of how far I’ve gone
How far I’ve gone, how high I’ve climbed
On my back’s a sixty pound stone
On my shoulder a half mile of line
Come on up for the rising
Come on up, lay your hands in mine
Come on up for the rising
Come on up for the rising tonight
Left the house this morning
Bells ringing filled the air
Wearin’ the cross of my calling
On wheels of fire I come rollin’ down here
Come on up for the rising
Come on up, lay your hands in mine
Come on up for the rising
Come on up for the rising tonight
There’s spirits above and behind me
Faces gone black, eyes burnin’ bright
May their precious blood bind me
Lord, as I stand before your fiery light
I see you Mary in the garden
In the garden of a thousand sighs
There’s holy pictures of our children
Dancin’ in a sky filled with light
May I feel your arms around me
May I feel your blood mix with mine
A dream of life comes to me
Like a catfish dancin’ on the end of my line
Sky of blackness and sorrow ( a dream of life)
Sky of love, sky of tears (a dream of life)
Sky of glory and sadness ( a dream of life)
Sky of mercy, sky of fear ( a dream of life)
Sky of memory and shadow ( a dream of life)
Your burnin’ wind fills my arms tonight
Sky of longing and emptiness (a dream of life)
Sky of fullness, sky of blessed life
Come on up for the rising
Come on up, lay your hands in mine
Come on up for the rising
Come on up for the rising tonight…
11 Sep 2012 at 07:52 pm | #
Great call on “The Rising”, TC. Gives me chills every time I hear it.
I was a junior at UMass. First plane hit while I was at the gym when it was dubbed an “accident.” I didn’t have a television in my apartment, so I hadn’t been abreast of the news for a little while. By the time I got to work at the dining commons people huddled around a TV and we all saw the last tower fall to the earth.
These remembrances are important so, as you say, we may never forget. It was a Tuesday and the weather was just like it is today. Perfectly clear, an otherwise wonderful morning.
Read “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”, a heart-breaking novel by Jonathan Safran Foer, if you haven’t already.
11 Sep 2012 at 10:04 pm | #
Good job Cat, per usual!
B, one point is not exactly a length and distance matters in terms of what a point means. Of course, it’s dependent on the specific methodology.
Why not send an e mail to all the authors of speed figures? I’m sure they’ll be happy to calibrate beaten lengths per point at varying distances.
And it would make interesting reading for the HRI faithful--I mean as long as you’re looking for things to write about…
11 Sep 2012 at 11:13 pm | #
Brendan,
It’s either do it yourself or rely on others you can trust. This is true for handicapping and betting.
So become a better handicapper through study and experience. This is regardless of what type of handicapper you are inclined to be - pace, speed, class, trip, trainer, comprehensive, etc.
Or as I said before use someone else, whether it’s Pricci or public handicappers like Nick Kling or private pay services.
Then there’s betting, which is arguably the most important thing to know how to do well. I book I’m currently re-reading and would recommend is Barry Meadow’s “Money Secrets At The Racetrack”.
A good example of smart betting would be what occurred in this years’ Woodward.
Pricci picked Mucho Macho Man and said to box with To Honor and Serve (great name for today 9/11) and use Cease as a longshot.
Here were the ML odds follwed by actual odds:
MMM 8/5—4/5
TH&S;2/1 - 7/2
Cease 10/1- 7/1
The only logical bet was not the top pick, but, the second choice.
THAS won and paid $9 and change
THAS/MMM exacta paid $22
THAS/MMM/Cease triple paid $88
So by combining good handicapping (Pricci) and smart betting (Meadow) you would have done quite well. Note: a backup bet reversing the top two finishers would have covered you if the result had been reverse.
Den
11 Sep 2012 at 11:23 pm | #
Thanks Den, a good example of “it’s about price not about horse” approach.
In fact, the odds were so high on THAS that I asked some of my press box colleagues if the believed THAS was dead on the board.
Paul Moran had it right when he intoned “smetimes the smart money is wrong.” Obviously a case in point in the Woodward. Good job, Den.
12 Sep 2012 at 12:36 am | #
Denny,
Great example. Winning at the races is all about money management, confidence, patience, focus, value and experience. Easier said than done.
What did Yogi say? The game is 90% mental and half physical haha, or a nickel aint worth a dime anymore!
B, TY...I was gonna go with “Sweet Caroline” with the Yanks/Sawx but it had no material. Thanks for the book recommendation. You are now my second best favorite person from UMass next to Victor “salsa” Cruuuuzzzzzzz
JP, Thank you, I will never forget!
TTT, Yes there is always a winner around the corner and when you get to the fork in the road, take it!
#1, pretty good story, Alchemist was a turf horse right? Who is Alchemist? Who is John Galt?
12 Sep 2012 at 12:44 am | #
JP<
I wondered about “dead on the board” myself - THAS ‘opened’ at 5/1. One thing I’m pretty good at though is tracking odds and as his odds started to drop I deemed him playable in light of one phenomenon I’ve observed over the years. He wasn’t the ML favorite and the ML favorite was the one being overbet. IMO if MMM had opened 5/1 ,however, he would have been DOB. Don’t know why this is true, but, from observation and experience find it to be rather reliable.
B,
Your 2nd point regarding ‘patience’ is much harder to teach.
I’m one of the few able to skip many races and wait for good betting opportunities. Most of the guys at the OTB bet every race and multiple tracks. That’s probbably why the place is empty by the end of the day.
One idea is to specialize.
One way to do it is to only bet certain types of races. Stakes/Handicaps, claimers, maidens, whatever you like best. Another is to bet turf only, or routes only, again whatever you like. There are almost endless possibilities - you decide. It could be small fields versus large. It could involve bet types as well - let’s say triples or supers in big fields. Maybe you like Pick 4’s - there’s only two a day.
Hope I’ve been of some help.
Den
12 Sep 2012 at 03:04 pm | #
There are systems galore, enough probably for every racing day of the year. Speed figures, pace figures, trainers, jockeys, class, form, et cetera.
However, I haven’t yet found a system that encompassed the following:
Stumbled out of gate.
Slow to settle.
Awkward step at start.
Ducked in.
Very wide throughout
Slow early.
Blew turn.
Bobbled, bumped start.
Carried wide.
Hustled early.
Never in contention.
No Kick.
Behind wall.
Squeezed.
Through after half.
Trailed.
In tight.
Failed to menace.
Passed tiring rivals.
Used up.
No factor.
Stopped.
To Late.
Well placed, out kicked.
Sluggish start.
Boreout.
Outfinished.
Brief speed, stopped.
Yielded.
Caught.
Folded.
Tracked, weakened.
Flattened.
Slow late gain.
Hung.
Lacked late response.
Weakened late.
Hopped start.
Came out.
Inbetween.
Blocked.
Chased, gave way.
Swung out, no rally.
Dwelt.
Checked.
Veered out start.
Fractious gate.
Done early.
Broke gate.
Clipped heels.
Shuffled.
Lost jockey.
Lost bob.
Lacked interest.
And my favorite: showed nothing.
12 Sep 2012 at 04:02 pm | #
You forgot “savaged rival,” that’s how I’ve stayed alive in this game so long.
TTT
12 Sep 2012 at 10:12 pm | #
I probably haven’t mention 75% of the reasons that a plodder who fits an expert’s analysis of a race didn’t win.
Some more:
Weighted out.
Never gone the distance.
Jockey got duped by fast pace.
Jockey got duped by slow pace.
Plodder washed-out prior to loading in gate.
Track conditions.
Heat/cold.
Jumped a shadow.
Jock lost stirrup.
Saddle slipped.
Rein broke.
Held by starter (happens more than you think).
And, of course, the unverifiable: headache, drugs haven’t kicked in yet, and simply don’t feel like running today.
So, you guys/gals think that there is a handicapping system that picks winners? Sorry, but the above variables suggest otherwise.
Me, I love gambling on the nags. It has been rather simple for many, many years. Just select a nag, purchase a Foster’s (formally Schlitz for many years), hope for the best, keep within your budget, enjoy the day/evening, and realize that there isn’t a sole on this planet that can guarantee the winner of the next race.
Doing such is far more entertaining and enjoyable than sitting in front of a slot machine that does not ask for you to think or reason. But, who knows this? See any advertising/promotion of Thoroughbred racing lately on television, in magazines, or in the few remain daily papers?
Every night on local television I watch two Connecticut casinos promoting their facilities.
What we worry (think NYRA) we got slot income.
Go Cuomo!!