I’d hate for dumb luck to get in the way. Dumb, foolish, stupid, invalid, stammering, dull, simple, imbecilic, dopey, dozy, half-baked luck. It will be on some sides and against others. I’d hate for the “No. 1 seeds” to get a bad draw, which is to say a bad post position.
Imagine all that hard work, the strain and stress of keeping Gemologist, Union Rags, Hansen, and I’ll Have Another sound through this mess we call the Triple Crown only have a double blind post position raffle ruin what was so deftly earned.
"I lost all chance at the post position draw when I drew the one," Baffert said USA Today back in 2010. "Since then, I haven't been able to really enjoy. Everything had been going so smooth and great, and then boom, right in the one hole."
Lookin At Lucky went off at 6-1, the most heavily bet horse since Harlan’s Holiday in 2002. Sometimes the best horse gets a great post. Barbaro drew for the chance to choose the 8 in 2006. Big Brown drew 20, exactly what trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. wanted.
So imagine a playoff scenario that puts an otherwise viable candidate, who has a legitimate shot at winning and have that shot in jeopardy due to chance. That’s the Kentucky Derby post draw and it needs to stop.
The horse with the best score, the best summed criteria would rightfully get first dibs on post. So, if Baffert had the first choice and he wanted Post 1, then it was his choice not the a roll of the dice. What if the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament were randomly assigned a high seed opponent in the early rounds? Who wants to see Duke-Carolina in the first round (Sure, this could happen, in theory, if the two schools were either on opposite ends of the rankings, say 1 and 64, or an 8 or 9 seed, but neither would be likely to happen. If they were 8 and 9, I doubt the selection committee would place them in the same region.)? It would invalidate the work teams and coaches sweat over for months and months only to have it come down to chance.
The criteria should be:
1. Points (TBD) for wins at:
Age 2 (less)
Age 3 (more)
2. Points (TBD) for wins at:
One turn (less)
Two turns (more)
3. Strength of Schedule
This last one is predicated on how other horses do with their scores for the first two criteria. These points don’t have to be added up until closer to the Derby because you can gauge who had stronger wins based on who wins the next race. If the horse you beat went out and one its next race, well, then you clearly beat a contender and should be rewarded so.
The incentive gives the horses with the most accomplishments, merits, and stripes the chance they deserve so as not to leave it … you guessed it … to chance.
Brendan O'Meara can be followed @BrendanOMeara.


12 Apr 2012 at 06:20 am | #
You seem to be overlooking the sole reason that would make your commentary above moot: Keep the number of entrants to a maximum of fourteen, and quit trying to squeeze all the horses that have won three-year-old stake races into the Kentucky Derby.
As to your commentary, let’s stack the deck even more in favor of Pletcher and Baffert; as I have written many times, it won’t be long before these two trainers have all the entrants in the Derby anyway.
BTW, isn’t there an ole axiom that reads ‘a great horse will win from any post carrying high weight’.
12 Apr 2012 at 06:59 am | #
B,
Between your suggestion and Indulto’s, accomplishment would be rewarded. No reasonable person would object to that notion.
With 20 horses, the luck factor is inescapable. In fact,bad luck can get you beat by three rivals if you’re positioned where you shouldn’t be.
But America’s Race as a meritocracy? Imagine that.
12 Apr 2012 at 07:21 am | #
Mr. Pricci: You write ‘with 20 horses, the luck factor is inescapable’. Imagine that, America’s greatest race, the Kentucky Derby, the winner is determined by luck, not ability. But then again, a number of excuses for not winning by the trainers, jockeys, and turf writers would be eliminated if only fourteen entrants were allowed.
12 Apr 2012 at 07:39 am | #
Me love the Kentucky Derby, me love the Spring, me love Churchill Downs, me love girls dressed up real nice, me love Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher, me love mint juleps. May the best horse win, but if he doesn’t me still love the Kentucky Derby, the first Saturday in May should be made a Federal Holiday, above all others, and the world should stop to enjoy the greatest party on earth.
TTT
12 Apr 2012 at 09:40 am | #
B,
Leave TRADITION in it!
In sports the best team doesn’t always win. In horseracing the best horse doesn’t always win. That’s what makes it interesting, fun, exciting and unpredictable. The luck of a bouncing ball, strategy and weather conditions contribute to help the underdogs. Would it be fun if the favorite always won?
Let’s not tinker with the traditional post position draw. Let’s not change the traditional spacing of the Triple Crown. Let’s not change the traditional race distances. Let’s measure today’s horses with past champions like Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed, who were not given any unfair advantages.
WMC,
Play it again Uncle Sam? Last time I checked this is still America. If all the owners want to give their horses to Baffert and Pletcher resulting in all the KY. Derby entrants trained by them, they have the freedom to do so.
And the beat goes on?
12 Apr 2012 at 02:11 pm | #
#4: I’m not so sure that Mr. Pletcher or Mr. Baffert want to read or hear that you love them.
#5: Yes, this is still America. And all horse owners have the right to have Pletcher or Baffert train their horses, thus eventually these two trainers with be listed at the trainer of all the horses entered in a future Kentucky Derby.
Also, Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowes have the right to be, eventually, the only grocery stores, merchandising stores, and hardware stores in this great country called America.
I’m well into my seventies and have ‘beat the system’ so to speak. I worry about my grandchildren, and others of a young age, who are in deep pucky as their future is being compromised by shortsighted people in decision making positions who can’t look beyond tomorrow. And our political system, comprised of two parties, that are polarized and vote on every issue along party lines - all the politicians merely trying to keep their job and get reelected.
If you, and others, believe that the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown are going to save racing, you all refuse to acknowledge what is in front of your nose: historical facts! As I said I lucked out; I got to enjoy Thoroughbred racing for over fifty years.
Someday, maybe, after all those now controlling racing eventually die, like the son of a Winston/Salem conglomerate executive who had the conscience to say that smoking causes cancer, someone in a position of authority will make the famous announcement: Thoroughbred racing’s future depends on getting people to GAMBLE on the horses. The Triple Crown races, the Travers, and the Breeders’ Cup races are just races, no different from a nine race card at Finger Lakes, Calder, or Philly Park.
But, one insurmountable obstacle still remains: getting turf writers off of following Pletcher, Baffert, Zito, Mott, et cetera and redirecting their writing to trainers and jockeys and races at the other forty or so racetracks existing in this country.
12 Apr 2012 at 02:40 pm | #
T, (oh, I’m sorry, #4), you still Mighty Big Chief in my eyes.
Rooting for White Cloud Saturday?
12 Apr 2012 at 05:15 pm | #
Wow! wmc on-topic for a change!
As mountains move
to Baffert and Pletcher
With horses bought
By Zayat and Zetcher
Winning the Derby
Is always their goal
When paying millions
To purchase a foal
They breed the best
And buy the best
To be trained by the best
To perform at their best
Are snobs effete
Who avoid defeat
By trying to compete
With the training elite?
I personally believe that racing would be stronger if more trainers could get better horses, but the game exists because owners and bettors are willing to risk their money in a manner of their own choosing. Would BB or TP wind up with an earnings-qualified horse that had to be supplemented?
12 Apr 2012 at 06:02 pm | #
#8- Thank you ol warrior,
and the poetry goes on?
12 Apr 2012 at 06:40 pm | #
#4 can’t see anybody beating him:
4-Hansen (3.13)
12-Hero of Order (5.86)
6-Dullahan (6.44)
TTT
12 Apr 2012 at 08:20 pm | #
Top Turf Techie
More numbers to nibble on:
Bluegrass field (PP order)
Ernk Horse Earnings Trainer BC-PTS TR-PTS
126. Heavy Breathing $47,000 Pletcher 1 1
385. Gung Ho $1,000 Maker
22. Prospective $365,452 Casse 8 9
1. Hansen $1,400,000 Maker 16 16
256. Russian Greek $9,000 Dorchenko
18. Dullahan $405,000 Romans 12 13
999. Politicallycorrect $0 Ward
999. Midnight Crooner $0 Baffert
999. Holy Candy $0 Sadler
81. Howe Great $90,000 Motion 4 4
125. Ever So Lucky $48,502 Sheppard 5 6
11. Hero of Order $615,500 Dorchenko 6 7
72. Scatman $100,000 Lauer 4 5
AK Derby field (PP order)
Ernk Horse Earnings Trainer BC-PTS TR-PTS
143. Cozzetti $35,000 Romans 2 3
165. Stat $30,000 Pletcher 4 5
368. Najjaar $1,429 Peitz
90. Jake Mo $85,000 Milligan 2 2
16. Secret Circle $470,000 Baffert 12 13
44. Isn’t He Clever $188,000 Domingues 2 2
48. Optimizer $181,375 Lukas 12 16
279. Atigun $6,453 McPeek
12. Sabercat $601,429 Asmussen 4 4
93. Raconteur $1,000 Pletcher
106. Bodemeister $60,000 Baffert 4 5