The blinkers are off now. Lookin’ at Lucky will be buried faster than Tony Soprano (yes, I think Tony got it in the end). Todd Pletcher’s two minutes will potentially make the next 525,598 minutes agonizing. And the weather could bring in another 50-1 bomb (any closers out there who like the mud, this may be the time to spread a few bucks over those nukes.)
Devil May Care gets five pounds on the rest of the field and she has the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field with Sydney’s Candy—the only two to hit 100.
There’s only two horses in the field of the Kentucky Derby with 100 Beyer? It happened!
Lose your shirt.
Eliminate Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Paddy O’Prado, and Conveyance from you selections.
Second guess Conveyance (394 Tomlinson figure).
Think about speed horses like Smarty Jones and what they can do in a sloppy Derby.
Find Calvin Borel.
Lose your virginity.
Pound a mint julep.
Question all the your bad decisions.
Watch the final 10 seconds of an NBA playoff game.
Watch the final two minutes of a World Cup soccer match.
Watch an Albert Pujols home run.
Take a look at those lovely ladies in their big hats in the Churchill Downs clubhouse.
Think about how Eskendereya would’ve Big Browned this field if his leg didn’t swell faster than Mike Iavarone’s ego.
Box two classy speed horses and two closers (Smarty Jones-Lion Heart-Imperialism-Limehouse).
That means Sydney’s Candy-Super Saver-Ice Box-Devil May Care. And don’t forget Dublin.
Line of David is sired by Lion Heart.
American Lion is not sired by Lion Heart.
Think about Jackson Bend and that his last two losses came against Eskendereya. JB has never finished worse than second.
Second place is the first loser. No Fear.
Save 15 percent on your car insurance.
Rethink the direction of this column.
You know it’s a lousy Derby when the biggest headline is “Lookin’ At Lucky draws the rail.” Really?
A lot of guff has been made that a horse hasn’t won from Post 1 since Ferdinand (and we all know where he ended up. Too soon?).
Let’s look at Post 1 of the past ten renewals West Side Bernie, Cool Coal Man, Sedgefield, Jazil, Sort It Out, Limehouse, Supah Blitz, Johannesburg, Songandaprayer, and Anees. Three of these horses finished fourth. Not too bad.
Then, of course, there’s “Todd’s Wad.” Perhaps that’s inappropriate, but, hey, this is the Internet. I cite the June 29, 2004, 5-4 Supreme Court decision in Ashcroft v. ACLU, II. Moving on ...
Even if Pletcher wins he will be 1-for-28. Gotta start somewhere. And how would you rank his horses? The filly is the fastest. Super Saver has the best jockey and an impressive win over the surface as a two year old. Misison Impazible is well-rested and Discreetly Mine is, um, also well rested.
Borel has a shot at saving ground and being in a spot as comfortable as Edgar Prado was aboard Barbaro in 2006. Devil May Care ran a faster nine furlongs than Ice Box did on the same Gulfstream card. That was a long time ago so she will have been recovered from that 100 Beyer. I’d be very surprised if she’s not in the Top 3.
It’s easy to over think this race. They are all very nice horses, all great athletes worthy of our respect, shpect!
But let’s whittle it down.
Twenty horses. Let’s scratch all the horses who are turf/Polytrack horses. That’s Dean’s Kitten, Paddy O’Prado, Make Music for Me, and Stately Victor.
Sixteen horses. Now let’s scratch the horses who have yet to crack a 95 Beyer as a three year old. That’s Jackson Bend, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Backtalk, and Homeboykris.
Down to 11 horses. American Lion was on the Santa Anita track, exploded forward on dirt, and will now bounce like Pioneerof the Nile.
Down to 10. Half the field is gone already!
Sidney’s Candy is good, but he’s not Big Brown breaking from grandstand. Lata!
Down to nine. Who’s left? Lookin’ At Lucky, Ice Box, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Line of David, Devil May Care, Conveyance, Awesome Act, and Dublin.
Line of David has only one win on dirt—a big one, but only one win and one start. Strike.
Devil May Care is faster than Ice Box. Scratch Ice Box.
Conveyance is going to face an eager Joe Talamo aboard Sydney’s Candy. Scratch Conveyance.
Noble’s Promise couldn’t close into a 46 half-mile pace in Arkansas. Strike.
Dublin lacks the killer instinct. He looks like Curlin. They share the same daddy, but he’s no Curlin. I truly applaud D. Wayne Lukas for keeping Dublin sound through his two-year-old year and getting him to the gates for the Derby (Think about that. This horse won the Hopeful and he’s in Louisville nine months later.) Strike.
Awesome Act slipped down in the Wood with a 93 Beyer. Can he blow up another 10 points or so? That’s a ton of improvement. I don’t see it happening here.
Three left. I’m not ruling out the filly. Won’t do it. Can’t do it.
Lookin’ At Lucky is doomed to finish fourth. Garrett Gomez will be buried. He thought he won this race last year when ...
Calvin Borel slipped on by.
Hmmm ... guess that leaves just one horse, eh?
Brendan O’Meara blogs about horse racing here at HRI and at The Carryover. He also blogs about narrative nonfiction and his book project “Six Weeks in Saratoga” at The Blog Itself. His Web site is http://www.brendanomeara.com.