Each racing day Tuesday through Sunday, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Never Look a Trip Horse in the Mouth
There were two extraordinary maiden breaking performances going long on turf at this meet and we were fortunate to catch one of them. That runner, Finnegans Wake (6-1), also conveniently earned the best performance figure on the Equiform scale and attracts Johnny Velazquez today.
The bad news is his extreme outside post; the probable good news is that the tough post will be built into the odds; it usually is. It had better be. As impressive as the Powerscourt colt was, the depth of this field and his position makes it folly to accept anything less than 5-1.
Taking Finnegans Wake to win and key boxing him in multiples with strong finishing, visually impressive Exothermic (8-1); experienced Patriotic And Proud (4-1); the uncoupled mate of the choice, News Pending (5-1), a winner at 9 furlongs; Saturday Launch (6-1),in here off a Pace Low, and, not least, graded stakes placed Fantastic Song (3-1).
Running Totals: (1020) 316-202-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,182.40 [win selections only]
The G2 Robert B. Lewis Memorial is a two-horse race on paper; the Bob Baffert trained Cash Call Futurity winner Liaison vs. the runnerup in that Grade 1, the Jerry Hollandorfer-trained Rousing Sermon.
The latter was the victim of a much tougher trip and he's been working very aggressively since.
We're taking Rousing Sermon to win the Lewis, and will add the other Baffert entrant, Sky Kingdom, to the exotics mix in addition to the likely favorite, his uncoupled mate.
Running Totals: (1019) 316-202-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,182.40 [win selections only]
A fairly extraordinary preliminary allowances is the ninth race from Gulfstream Park today; older horses sprinting seven furlongs and featuring two very talented horses.
Can’t argue with those willing to take a very short price on Associate (8-5) who, when last seen at Santa Anita, was finished third to The Factor in the Grade 1 Malibu. This is what, a five class drop then?
Associate is much improved since Rick Dutrow claimed the horse from Linda Rice in the fall but given the regression last out, albeit vs. much better, we’re uncertain just where he might be in his form cycle today.
That’s why we’ll take Emcee (2-1) who is almost certain to leave the gate no lower than his early line quote, scratches notwithstanding.
Not only did he run fast in his debut last fall, he did it the right way with an opening Compression Line; good energy distribution and an indication today’s added furlong won’t hurt his chances.
Returning from layups of 90 days-plus is a specialty of the McLaughlin barn and he’s certainly been training right along at Palm Meadows for his South Florida debut. Johnny Velazquez gets the call.
Taking Emcee to win at 2-1 or greater, an exacta box with the favorite, and adding the sharp and fast class-climbing Macarthur Causeway.
Running Totals: (1018) 315-202-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,177.20 [win selections only]
