Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Single Pick Six in Today’s Feature at Belmont

DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS CREATED BY PREAKNESS STAKES COVERAGE, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INSTALLMENT OF THE FREE FEATURE RACE ANALYSIS FROM NEW YORK UNTIL WEDNESDAY, MAY 21.

Terrific race to begin the Belmont week, a full field of secondary allowance types for older horses going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf, likely to be rated good. The three main contenders are Cougar Bay (2-1), Pick Six (4-1) and Best Alibi (8-1).

Cougar Bay is a deserving favorite. By definition the fastest horse on performance figures, he returns fresh for Barclay Tagg, who’s been on a tear since returning from Florida and Kentucky, winning with five of 14 recent starters and is very effective when returning his charges on two months rest. Two starts back, Cougar Bay was a good fourth behind Grade 1 winner Einstein and also suffered through a tough trip in his last when an excellent third in a G2 event after making a bold, albeit premature, move to the lead. The shorter distance and class relief makes him a very tough out at a very short price.

Shug McGaughey is also going well with his returnees to this surface. In Pick Six, he has a developing four-year-old coming off an excellent placing in his season’s debut at Keeneland after breaking slowly and making a five wide rally that fell short of victory by a half length. He figures to benefit from that effort, has competitive, forward-looking figures and retains regular rider Johnny Velazquez. Nicely positioned inside, he owns a win on the Belmont lawn.

Best Alibi gets Lasix for the first time making his U.S. debut for Saeed bin Suroor, who’s 38 percent efficient with horses shipping to America for the first time. He’s been competitive in European graded company and his trainer is also adept with horses returning from lengthy layups and adding the diuretic for the first time. Veteran turf ace Jean Luc Samyn has the mount.

Taking Pick Six to win at 7-2 or greater and keying him in exacta boxes first and second with his two main rivals here.

Running Totals: (207) 66-44-24. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Will Rail Open for Red Zipper?

Today’s Belmont feature is the Kingston for older New York bred turf specialists going a mile and a sixteenth. Yesterday, the ground was soft but played fairly honestly, favoring no particular style. What makes today’s test so difficult is that there are so many returning from layups. Those that are not are making significant distance switches.

Contenders of interest are Red Zipper (7-2), Dave (4-1) and Retribution (10-1). The play for us is to ignore early line Spurred (3-1). While the Donk barn has been going very well of late, today’s dynamic does seem to suit his 4-year-old Northern Spur colt.

Red Zipper is making his five year old debut attracting Johnny Velazquez and breaking from the rail. Good fresh, he’s been legged up on Polytrack at the owner’s farm upstate, has tactical speed and his inside draw is suited well to his versatile style. Very game, he figures to make best use of his talent in an expected ground-saving effort.

Dave is arguably the class and has beaten better state-breds and his acquitted himself well in open company. Barclay Tagg has been very live with his Florida shippers at this young meet. Seven-year-old gelding has been keeping open graded stakes company of late and has had four local works since shipping here with the rest of the barn in early April. The switch to Eibar Coa augurs well.

Retribution has an extremely high turn of early speed and makes his first start for the Contessa barn, a profitable 25 percent angle. Six-year-old gelding has worked six times since early April for this and attracts Rajiv Maragh, who’s done a lot of winning for this barn since the winter Aqueduct meet, gets the call. The outfit is also profitable returning from lengthy layups and he will take catching at fair odds.

Taking Red Zipper to win at early line odds of 7-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exacta boxes with his two rivals here. Trifecta players add price shot Banrock (15-1) to the mix.

Running Totals: (206) 66-44-24. Totals Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]

Saturday, May 10, 2008

A Spike in the Market

It’s not often this daily feature gets to analyze a prep for the third leg of racing’s Triple Crown.

The Grade 2 nine furlong Peter Pan has drawn an eclectic group. Casino Drive, from the dam that produced the last two Belmont winners, is the 2-1 favorite off an 11 length score in his native Japan. At the price, no think you, he must prove he fits with a group like this.

Only two of these runners are likely to land on the top of my exotic tickets; Tomcito (6-1) and Golden Spikes (3-1).

Tomcito will probably half his early line odds by post time. A strong finish, albeit distance, third in Big Brown’s Florida Derby, his Lexington is better than it looked because he was compelled to race closer to the early pace, not his preferred style. His two U.S. starts have been good, the added distance suits, and he gets a switch to the very effective Cornelio Velasquez. He worked a bullet in preparation for this.

Golden Spikes simply keeps improving. He broke through to run an excellent figure in December sprinting at Calder and broke through again, distributing his energy much more efficiently when second to Recapturetheglory in the rapidly run Illinois Derby. With five weeks rest, a stalk and pounce style that suits today’s race shape, and a switch to Edgar Prado, he is the most probably winner at fair odds.

Taking Golden Spikes to win at 5-2 and an exacta box with Tomcito. Trifecta players can use Ready’s Echo (6-1) and Cosmic (8-1) second and third.

Running Totals: (205) 66-44-24. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]

Friday, May 09, 2008

Looky Here, Tight Storm’s the Value

Today’s feature at Belmont Park is a non-winners of “three other than” or optional claiming $75,000 for older fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. A short field of five and hoping that, unlike yesterday, a late scratch would change the dynamic and render a potential wager meaningless.

This one appears to be a battle between Looky Yonder (2-1) and Tight Storm (5-2). Looky Yonder is the logical favorite coming out of a rough trip second in the Grade 2 Madison at Keeneland. In fact, she’s had a lot of stakes experience of late and undressed an allowance field when racing in a secondary allowance condition. This is the next logical step, getting class relief while picking up Garrett Gomez.

As one might expect, Tight Storm showed improvement in her first start for Gary Contessa last out. The four-year-old filly returns off a brief freshening sporting a series of steady breezes. Channing Hill rides the filly back after being aboard for her latest much improved effort. With upside potential as a four-year-old, she might offer value in a short field, barring scratches, of course.

Taking Tight Storm at early line odds of 5-2 and an exacta box with Looky Yonder.

Running Totals: (204) 66-44-23. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Turf Pace in Decline but Things Looking Up for Namaste’s Wish

Today’s feature is an interesting one, the Gaviola for three-year-old turf fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the on the Widener turf course. Yesterday, the Irish rail was not used but today’s forecast calls for a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. The selections are for turf only.

We’re making it a two horse event between I Lost My Choo and Namaste’s Wish (4-1). The good news is that value might be available here.

The bad news is that I Love My Choo is a deserving favorite. Three for three on grass, she tried the Grade 3 Appalachian last time out at Keeneland and just missed in a grudging loss after chasing the pace throughout while rank, a tough trip to say the least. Two for two at the distance, nicely drawn, and with Prado, she’ll be a tough out.

Namaste’s Wish, winner of the Miss Grillo at two in her only start on this course, she raced extremely wide behind the choice in her season’s debut. In addition to the wide trip, she was hindered by a very slow pace. Given the conditioning gained, she has a chance to break through her two-year-old top effort, which is faster than these have run this year, with the exception of the favorite.

Taking Namaste’s Wish to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with the likely favorite.

Running Totals: (203) 66-43-23. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Get Me to the Finish Line on Time

Today’s Belmont feature is the Screenland Stakes for New York bred males going six and a half furlongs. There is a good amount of New York bred sprinting talent in this short field but it will take a Herculean effort to be favored Groomedforvictory (6-5).

The Barclay Tagg trainee, by definition the fastest horse in the race on performance figures by a significant margin, exploded in his Gulfstream finale with the removal of blinkers going a mile. His turn-back figures are first rate, he owns tactical ability and has been working bullets since returning to his Belmont Park base. Regular rider Javier Castellano is in the boot.

Fort Drum (7-2) is removing blinkers following a win, which should not be allowed, but perhaps it’s owning to his continued problems leaving the starting gate might have something to do with that. He won in his first start for Gary Contessa and Eibar Coa rides him back. He’s turning back from 7 furlongs to 6-½, is stakes tough and owns a win at Belmont.

Be Bullish (5-1) looks like an open class sprinter on his best day. He’s won on and from well off the early pace, has a win over the surface and a most worthy 3-for-7 slate and goes postward with regular rider C.C. Lopez, the veteran riding at a profitable 19 percent rate in 2008. He might fall between the wagering cracks here.

Taking Groomedforvictory to win, no price restrictions, keying him first and second in exactas with his main rivals here, extra tickets with Groomedforvictory first.

Running Totals: (202) 65-43-23. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win wagers only]

Thursday, May 01, 2008

“Matt” Just Might Run Like a Two-Year-Old for Levine

WITH THE KENTUCKY DERBY DOMINATING THE HANDICAPPING LANDSCAPE, THE NYRA FEATURE RACE ANALYSIS WILL RETURN WED., MAY 7. THIS WILL BE THE LAST INSTALLMENT UNTIL THAT DATE

Today’s feature sprint is very interesting, which is to say difficult. Two classy horses are returning off extended layups, several are aged old pros, while others are returning first time for the outfits that traditionally dominate this kind of event.

The most likely suspects among them and the Rick Dutrow coupling of Strummer and Unrequited (5-2), Starforaday (4-1), and the old pro My Cousin Matt (9-2).

The 9-year-old former stakes winner, “Matt” makes his debut for the Levine barn, a profitable 28 percent effective with new acquisitions. Nicely freshened by the new connections, he likely was reserved for this meet, having compiled a 3-for-7 record over big sandy. Always versatile, he can stalk from close range or kick from off the pace. His style, and the presence of Eibar Coa, fits today’s dynamic nicely.

Strummer returns to Belmont (2-for-9) after winning his first start for Dutrow, a nifty 30 percent with repeaters. That 5-½ furlong event can only sharpen his speed for this, meaning he could repeat but certainly help set the table for his late-running mate. Unrequited is also looking to repeat. However his last start was 354 days ago. But he has won fresh in his career and Dutrow is 24 percent effective with returnees off layups of 90 days or more.

Starforaday, going first time for Gary Contessa, a profitable 25 percent with new acquisitions. The 5-year-old is returning from a 197-day layoff after receiving a “pulled up lame” comment in his final start before today. That effort came in a Keeneland allowances after beating optional claimers at Saratoga in a lifetime best performance. Note that he returns under the allowance conditions here and is not up for sale, even though the “lame” comment can be a way to big profits when winning trainers get their horses right. Don’t believe Contessa capable of embarrassing himself if he didn’t think his horse was fit and ready.

Taking My Cousin Matt to win at 7-2 or more and keying him in exactas first and second with his main rivals here. Trifecta players add El Bandito Rojo (4-1) to your mix.

Running Totals: (201) 65-43-22. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win selections only]

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Ancients Say Short Price Better Than Long Face, Grasshopper

Belmont Park opens with a renewal of the storied Grade 3 Westchester Handicap for three-year-olds and up at a flat one-turn mile around “Big Sandy.”

It has attracted a significant shipper and early line favorite Grasshopper (3-5) from the Neil Howard shed. The interesting horses are Divine Park (4-1) and Sightseeing (6-1).

When last seen, Grasshopper was being outrun in deep stretch by the talented Circular Quay after giving away his momentum at headstretch in the G2 New Orleans Handicap. As the soft-paced but pressed-throughout frontrunner, he could not hold off the winner in his second start of the year. He’s better with a target. Between today’s shorter distance and class relief, he’s extremely formidable in his third start of the season.

Divine Park came to hand in his last start, a comprehensive victory in fast time now returns to a dynamic by which he won his only start going a one-turn mile, the G3 Withers last season. Nicely positioned outside in a big field and with tactical speed, he will be a tough customer with Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia calling the shots. Whether he’s good enough for the like of Grasshopper is to be determined.

Sightseeing is going turf to dirt in his second start of the year for Shug McGaughey. His lone career victories have come on this surface in the one turn G2 Peter Pan last year that earned him a ticket to the Jim Dandy and Travers. A good third in the Travers, he was somewhat disappointing in Street Sense’s Travers. Shug is 22 percent efficient with the turf to dirt move and the very hot Edgar Prado takes the re-ride after his recent turf constitutional. Whether he has enough speed to overtake the favorite is another matter.

Taking Grasshopper to win with no price restrictions, optimizing the play with an exacta part wheel of Grasshopper and Divine Park first, with those two and Grasshopper for second, extra tickets with Grasshopper.

Running Totals: (200) 65-43-22. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win selections only]

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Pays to Play Pays To Dream

The final feature race of the Aqueduct spring meet comes none to soon. It’s a good and interesting one, the Grade 3 Fort Marcy for 4-year-olds and up going a mile and a sixteenth on the Aqueduct turf.

It offers an interesting blend of returnees making seasonal debuts and horses making their second and third starts off layoffs from top outfits. It figures to be a good and open betting race.

We’re keeping it simple, taking one of the returnees that figure to be primed for this. Otherwise, why would David Donk bring back Pays To Dream (5-1) on a course over which he’s 2-for-2 on the last day of the meet? Another rival is 0-for-2 on the Aqueduct green; none of the others have experience on it.

Pays To Dream has a strong late kick and returns in a spot with sufficient pace for his needs. Trainer Donk is winning at a near 24 percent rate over the past three months and a profitable 22 percent with horses returning from layups of 90 days or more. The newly turned 4-year-old gelding has maturity upside and developed with seasoning throughout his 3-year-old campaign.

Taking Pays To Dream to win and place at early line odds of 5-1 or better.

Running Totals: (200) 65-43-22. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win selections only]

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Featured Beaugay Up for Ransom

Not one but two features today, and after seeing how short the field was for the Grade 3 Withers, I figure I’d analyze the G3 Beaugay instead. I was right. The Withers drew only four horses. The Beaugay was bigger, it drew five! Too bad the sexes, surfaces and distance was different. That would have made for a nice nine-horse field.

In the Withers, it will be Bay Shore winner J Be K against the world..er..three horses. With a 50 percent chance of showers Friday night and Saturday and the promise of a at least a damp surface, J Be K’s speed will be hard to run down. But if anyone can, Harlem Rocker is an intriguing prospect. Two-for-two in career, his last was a fast reversal of energy with a competitive figure. Meanwhile, his uncoupled Todd Pletcher mate, Face The Cat, is much better than he showed in Florida Derby. And J Be K is no Big Brown.

The Beaugay should be least effected by damp/wet conditions and it’s extremely doubtful the race comes off the turf. Three of the five can win: Sweet Ransom (3-1), Factual Contender (4-1) and Criminologist (9-5).

The latter two fillies are the most accomplished. Criminologist is a dual G3 winner and was an excellent second in her season’s debut at Keeneland; a too late-finishing second on yielding ground at a mile. That’s a tough go, moreover, she’s always been better in her second start following a layoff.

Factual Contender won four restricted/overnight stakes in a busy campaign and earns the highest figures of the group consistently. Barclay Tagg has had her in training since February and she’s highly unlikely to be a short filly for today’s race. Eibar Coa, who rides today, was aboard for all four of those aforementioned wins.

But Sweet Ransom has the most upside as a newly turned four-year-old. She was a fast-closing second in the G3 Frances “You’ve Won the Derby” Genter going 7-½ furlongs at Calder--not the easiest trip for any later runner. She owns enough tactical speed to track lone speedster, draws the pole, switches to big-money turf ace Edgar Prado, and Bill Mott is a 24 percent profitable with returnees of 90 days or more. Her two lone wins and one placing have come from four starts at today’s distance.

Taking Sweet Ransom to win at 5-2 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with her main rivals here.

Running Totals: (199) 65-43-22. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win selections only]