Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Sunday, March 01, 2015


A Fair Chance for Value in New Orleans Feature


Hazards od Love (5-2) has excellent dirt figures, but how will it transfer to turf, is one of the main questions to be answered in the feature race at Fair Grounds today, where the weather is predicted to be fair, unlike Hallandale, where things are a whole lot murkier.

Late odds definitely will determine the win play here and Profluent is value on the early line at 12-1, well-equipped by pedigree and connections for a successful stretch-out. But Brown Almighty (4-1) and Red Strike (7-2) are the proven routers.

If you need a better breakdown of the turf event, click on http://www.123bet.com for a full analysis complete with Performance Figure energy ratings.

We will take, however, Profluent to win at 8-1 or greater, and an exacta box with his two rivals here.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1698

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 511-329

Amount Wagered: $3,396 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,509.40

Profit to Date: $113.40

Written by John Pricci

Comments (9)


 
 

Saturday, February 28, 2015


Get Cash in Herecomesthebride with Consumer Credit


EARLY ODDS BOARD

# M L- TER- EAR- VHR
1- 7-2- 78 Devine Aida 72- 6
2- 6-1 NA Sweet Swingin NA- 3
3- 20-1 NA Arella Princess NA- 1
4- 8-1- 72 Pine Needles 67- 5
5- 5-2- 81 Quality Rocks NA- 4
6- 20-1-NA Temper Mint Patty NA- 4
7- 20-1-70 Tumminia 66- 4
8- 9-5- 85 Consumer Credit 77- 8
9- 20-1- 73 Maddizaskar 67- 6

E A R: ENERGY ABILITY RATING (Demonstrated Raw Speed + Energy Distribution = Athletic Strength and Condition)
V H R: VARIABLE HANDICAP RATING (Statistical Strength of Traditional Handicapping Data)
T E R: TOTAL ENERGY RATING (Raw Energy Figure + Traditional Handicapping-Angle Values = Value-Wagering Decision-Making)

HANDICAPPING/BETTING NOTES: The #s 2, 3 and 6 are all making turf debuts; interesting in that it’s graded stakes company-very ambitious placement however. Consumer Credit has good separation on second favorite Quality Rocks, TER of 85 to 81. Similarly ‘Rocks’ has a solid edge over Devine Aida but 7-2 doesn’t appear to be enough price on ‘Aida’. Very interesting is Maddizaskar, rated 4th, with Johnny at 20-1. Taking ‘Credit’ to win, exacta box with ‘Rocks’; both on top with ‘Aida’ on 2-3 levels; #4 & #9 for super-exotics.

INSIDE THE BOXES: In our beta-tests (actual betting from July 2014), we discovered that a 5-point margin in the TER is a significant edge and considered a best bet. Horses within two TER points are virtually equal contenders, making them significantly price dependent. A three TER margin is where separation of contenders begins. The greatest measure of success came at the MSW, ALW and STAKES classes. While I would expect the results to level off, the win rate was 57%. Invariably, best bets were favorites but surprisingly few were odds-on, the average win price was $5.10. I accept that this clam will be viewed with a healthy amount of skepticism. Bettors will have to judge on the merits. Please remember that this methodology has two aims; to provide a trustworthy contrarian approach yielding profitable results…in the long term!

OUTSIDE THE LINES: Ultimately, the most profitable results will come in highly competitive races in which double-digit, competitive-figure runners’ finish in pay positions first through fourth. Big payoffs, bad for win percentages but good for long term ROI--make putting up with the chaos and the inevitable long droughts worthwhile. The handicapping variables that comprise the VHR are: Surface success (dirt, turf, AW, wet, dry); distance (long, short, one turn or two); trainers (strengths, weaknesses, current streak, spot placement, race spacing, workout pattern); jockeys (raw ability, style suitability, current streak, trainer relationships); workouts; trips; key races; track bias; pedigree (four variables); race dynamics and, ultimately, price. Some of the 28 individual factors are weighed more heavily than others in the VHR; a perfect score on the Pricci Performance Rating scale is 17. However, in 18 months, I’ve never had a VHR rating reach the double-digit mark.

For FRA running totals purposes, taking Consumer Credit to win, no price restrictions

Number of Selections since 2008: 1698

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 511-329

Amount Wagered: $3,396 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,509.40

Profit to Date: $113.40

For Pricci Performance Ratings for the Swale & Palm Beach, click on http://www.123bet.com

Written by John Pricci

Comments (0)


 
 

Friday, February 27, 2015


Mott Filly to Lead the Way in Gulf Feature


Gulfstream R 9 Feb. 27, 2015

# ML TER- EAR- VHR-
1 3-1- 76 Streethomealabama 71- 5
2 20-1- 70 Curlin’s Gold 70- 0
3 9-2- 80 Second Base 74- 6
4 4-1- 80 Lil Honey Badger 78- 2
5 15-1- 65 We’llseeaboutthat 64- 1
6 8-1- 67 Spot a Kiss 63- 4
7 6-1- 74 Political Storm 69- 5
8 5-2- 82 Previous 74- 8

T E R: TOTAL ENERGY RATING (Raw Energy Figure + Traditional Handicapping-Angle Values = Value-Wagering Decision-Making)
E A R: ENERGY ABILITY RATING (Demonstrated Raw Speed + Energy Distribution = Athletic Strength and Condition Profile)
V H R: VARIABLE HANDICAP RATING (Statistical Strength of Traditional Handicapping Data Enhances the Raw Energy Figure)

HANDICAPPING/BETTING NOTES

There are three horses clustered at the top within two TER rating points; Second Base, Lil Honey Badger and Previous. The latter is the ML fave and worthy of it. The Bill Mott shed has come alive in a big way and her position and style put her in a great spot to control dynamics, whatever the jock decides. Streethomealabama (3-1) is an underlay and we’ll keep her out of the top two slots, keying on Previous to win, key-boxing exactas with ‘Base’ and ‘Badger’. Using ‘Alabama’ below in super-exotics exclusively.

For FRA running totals purposes, taking Precious to win, no price restrictions.

INSIDE THE BOXES: In our beta-tests (actual betting from July 2014), we discovered that a 5-point margin in the TER is a significant edge and considered a best bet. Horses within two TER points are virtually equal contenders, making them significantly price dependent. A three TER margin is where separation of contenders begins. The greatest measure of success came at the MSW, ALW and STAKES classes. While I would expect the results to level off, the win rate was 57%. Invariably, best bets were favorites but surprisingly few were odds-on, the average win price was $5.10. I accept that this clam will be viewed with a healthy amount of skepticism. Bettors will have to judge on the merits. Please remember that this methodology has two aims; to provide a trustworthy contrarian approach yielding profitable results…in the long term!

OUTSIDE THE LINES: Ultimately, the most profitable results will come in highly competitive races in which double-digit, competitive-figure runners’ finish in pay positions first through fourth. Big payoffs, bad for win percentages but good for long term ROI--make putting up with the chaos and the inevitable long droughts worthwhile. The handicapping variables that comprise the VHR are: Surface success (dirt, turf, AW, wet, dry); distance (long, short, one turn or two); trainers (strengths, weaknesses, current streak, spot placement, race spacing, workout pattern); jockeys (raw ability, style suitability, current streak, trainer relationships); workouts; trips; key races; track bias; pedigree (four variables); race dynamics and, ultimately, price. Some of the 28 individual factors are weighed more heavily than others in the VHR; a perfect score on the Pricci Performance Rating scale is 17. However, in 18 months, I’ve never had a VHR rating reach the double-digit mark.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1697

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 510-329

Amount Wagered: $3,394 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,505.20

Profit to Date: $111.20

Written by John Pricci

Comments (0)


 
 

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