Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Sunday, October 04, 2015


Today's Grade 1 feature at Keeneland is a fascinating renewal of the Spinster, what with Oaks winner Lovely Maria (7=2) looking to retain her top form now that she's back in Kentucky; Frivolous (9-2), who comes off a devastating score in the Locust Grove now stretches to her best distance, and Untapable (9-5), who appears to be regaining the form that made her a champion at 3. We're betting on the latter scenario.

Her Personal Ensign trip was less than ideal, between fillies much of the way while uncustomarily close to the lead and holding a little better than she has late this season at four. We believe she has it all together now is ready to fire her best shot this year, coming off four purposefully works since her Spa finale.

Taking Untapable to win, no price restrictions, key-boxing exactas with her main rivals here, adding Got Lucky (7-2) is the exotics mix,

Number of Selections since 2007: 1839

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 552-353

Amount Wagered: $3,678 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,7778.90

Profit to Date: $100.90

Written by John Pricci

Comments (1)


Saturday, October 03, 2015

Simply Super

Today's enhanced analysis of Super Saturday courtesy of promotional considerations with

It’s called ‘Super Saturday’ and for good reason; handicappers will need all fingers and most toes to count the number of graded stakes this weekend, especially Saturday: Welcome to Breeders’ Cup prep season.

The focus until month’s end will be one handicapper’s overview of the races that figure to have a profound effect on what might occur Oct. 30-31 at Keeneland Race Course.

Saturday at BELMONT PARK:

G1 JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP: This is Tonalist’s (6-5) race to lose. While the 4-year-old variety is faster on the TG scale, he has not been as effective as the sophomore version. But they still run the JCGC at Belmont Park where Clement trainee is [6] 4-2-0 in his career. And he’s been firing bullets, not the standard modus operandi for this barn.
The outside post in this sextet gives Johnny V. many options. He’ll need them: Not much early speed to threaten Constitution’s apparent lose lead.

Bettables: Key favorite in multiples. Possible value upsetter is Effinex (6-1), who’s best game is Saturday’s 10 furlongs.

G2 KELSO HANDICAP: Another Breeders’ Cup prep that features a virtually unbeatable favorite in Honor Code (3-5), widely regarded as the best active older dirt male in the country.
While this is an intended prep, at which he will be less than 100%, his wide class edge and one-turn mile dynamic—his best go in our view---in this short field should not compromise his whirlwind late run. Don’t know how to beat him.

Bettables: Key the favorite in multiples. Appealing Tale (6-1) may be tough to catch shipping east for trainer Peter Miller. He is the main speed assuming a clean break and Joe Talamo comes with the package. The live price shot is Matterhorn (15-1), on a forward-looking pattern for Todd Pletcher.

G1 FRIZETTE STAKES: Unlike last weekend’s G1 Chandelier at Santa Anita, when Songbird went into and emerged as a dominating juvenile filly player, the Frizette belongs to anyone. None of the seven have overly impressed with many coming off maiden wins or going long for the first time. There’s even a European ship-in with first-Lasix that’s won on a synthetic surface but has never raced on dirt; Memoralia (5-1) does have experience in her corner.

Bettables: The filly that intrigues most is New York-bred She’s All Ready (3-1). We’re not crazy about her rail draw, but she is 2-for-2 in life, won on a stretchout to 6-1/2 furlongs to take a state-bred stakes, and goes a mile for the Ryerson barn that’s 23% profitable stretching off two sprints.
By prolific freshman sire Girolamo, she gets potential stamina from the El Prado mare, Prominent and owns consecutive bullet works for this. Junior Alvarado takes the call and we’re willing to take 5-2 post time odds straight and an exacta box with Nickname (7-2).

Saturday at KEENELAND:

G2 THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA: All eyes are on popular filly sprint champion Judy the Beauty (6-5); deservedly so. Trainer Wesley Ward said on Tuesday’s NTRA conference call that if the Breeders’ Cup were not at Keeneland, where ‘Judy’ has been based all her life, she would have been already retired.
She will not be at absolute tops, as she promises to be at month’s end, but she will be close to it. Having had only two starts this year and training like a monstress, the idea has been to get her good for today and for Ward to hold her there, finishing touches notwithstanding. She will be a very tough out.

Bettables: Key ‘Judy’ in multiples. The potential value is Leigh Count (3-1), the defending champion in this race, taking her only run on Keeneland dirt. Second in two graded stakes this year on turf and synthetic for Michael Stidham, this filly is on virtually the same program as ‘Judy’: Two starts, then one prep, then big dance.
We like that her latest race was at Presque Isle Downs, the Tapeta surface being very kind to runners making the transition to dirt in a subsequent start. Pricci Energy Figures are highly competitive and her ability/style rates to earn her a good trip here. Victor Espinoza replaces veteran Gary Boulanger. Heykittykittykitty (10-1) is the price shot.

G1 FIRST LADY STAKES: It’s the same old story for trainer Mark Casse: If it weren’t for bad luck with Tepin (5-2)… Bad enough she was out-bobbed by a nose in the G1 Diana, and worse that she was nailed in the last jump of the G2 Ballston Spa.

Today she turns back to her best distance, one mile, owning a [3] 2-1-0 career slate, but what happens? The extreme outside 11-post going a two turns. On her best go, she will win, especially given the solid conditioning she gained over the Saratoga summer.

Bettables: We’re hoping that the bad post will get many of the big boys off the parimutuel scent, so that getting a tad more than early line odds is conceivable.

We would bet Tepin straight at 3-1 or greater, and key-box her in multiple pools with Aidan O’Brien’s Lasix-on pair of Euro ship-ins Easter (4-1) and Outstanding (6-1), and Crowley’s Law (5-1) third in Belmont’s rapidly run G3 Noble Damsel.

G1 BREEDERS’ FUTURITY: For those who might not have seen the G3 Iroquois at Churchill September 12, a trip to your favorite video provider is in order given the amount of trouble experienced by the second and third finishers.

It’s not as if Rated R Superstar (6-1) had trouble as much as he was the victim of circumstances. That’s what can happen from post 9 going 1-1/16 miles around two turns in Louisville.

Try as he normally might, Calvin Borel could save no ground, racing wide throughout and making a premature balcony move on the far turn. That made it almost impossible for this team to catch the good-tripping talent, Cocked and Loaded.

But the ‘Superstar’ kept rallying, staving off and separating himself from a strong-moving rival to his outside leaving headstretch, and narrowing the winner’s margin by inches deep in the lane. Today ‘Borail’ draws his favorite spot; right on the fence.

Bettability: Willing to take 4-1 or greater in the straight pool. Will key-box exactas with stakes experienced Exaggerator (7-2), Uncle Vinny (9-2) and impressive maiden breaker Brody’s Cause (6-1). Also adding price shot Uncle Jerry (30-1) to super-exotics mix.

For HRI’s Feature Race rolling results, we’re going on record with She’s All Ready, Tepin and Rated R Superstar.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1836

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 551-353

Amount Wagered: $3,672 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,773.50

Profit to Date: $101.50

Written by John Pricci

Comments (4)


Friday, October 02, 2015

Honestly, It’s True Bet

Today's Belmont feature is for preliminary allowance state-breds at the hybrid 6-1/2 furlong distance. There's no shortage of early gas in this event and that leads us directly to recent maiden winner, True Bet (6-1).

It's taken until this summer for the gelded 3YO to get his act together but he has as evidenced by three recent improved outings. The win came at today's distance, trainer Michael Dilger is a profitable 28% efficient with last-out maiden breakers 24% effective in allowances overall.

His close-up, stalk-and-strike style fits the race shape nicely and if Manny Franco can avoid trouble from the rail slip, he just might trip-out with a perfect ground-saving journey.

Taking True Bet to win at 3-1 or greater and key-boxing exactas with Giantinthemoonlite (5-2) and David Rocks (3-1).

Number of Selections since 2007: 1835

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 551-352

Amount Wagered: $3,670 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,773.50

Profit to Date: $103.50

Written by John Pricci

Comments (0)


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