Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Turf to Dirt? No Problema
There are times, like in today's featured fourth race at Gulfstream, when a small field can offer value because of its competitiveness. Not real sure about the value part, but the competitiveness?
Four of the six horses can win, in our estimation, and a fifth goes first time off the Marty Wolfson claim, a profitable 29% scenario and the longer half of an uncoupled entry. (See what I mean?)
Anyway, when last seen, the Todd Pletcher trained Ana Luisa (2-1) was making her U.S. debut in an overnight stakes at 7-1/2 furlongs on the turf now, like several of these allowances fillies and mares, is back on the dirt. After getting into a rhythm last month, the filly swing wide into the lane and finished strongly too late (see replay).
Given sufficient recovery time, note that this filly was 2-for-2 on wet tracks in her native Brazil. As this is written at 7:22 am, it is raining outside my South Florida window.
Take Ana Luisa to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing her with Giant Cats Eye (4-1), much improved for Eddie Plesa, and Centrique (3-1), the stronger of the Wolfson entrants with leading rider Castellano re-riding the recent key race winner (3 wins, 5 subsequent starters).
Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1463
Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 448-277-224
Amount Wagered: $2,928 [to win only]
Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,051.40
Profit to Date: $123.40