Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Turf to Dirt? No Problema

There are times, like in today's featured fourth race at Gulfstream, when a small field can offer value because of its competitiveness. Not real sure about the value part, but the competitiveness?

Four of the six horses can win, in our estimation, and a fifth goes first time off the Marty Wolfson claim, a profitable 29% scenario and the longer half of an uncoupled entry. (See what I mean?)

Anyway, when last seen, the Todd Pletcher trained Ana Luisa (2-1) was making her U.S. debut in an overnight stakes at 7-1/2 furlongs on the turf now, like several of these allowances fillies and mares, is back on the dirt. After getting into a rhythm last month, the filly swing wide into the lane and finished strongly too late (see replay).

Given sufficient recovery time, note that this filly was 2-for-2 on wet tracks in her native Brazil. As this is written at 7:22 am, it is raining outside my South Florida window.

Take Ana Luisa to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing her with Giant Cats Eye (4-1), much improved for Eddie Plesa, and Centrique (3-1), the stronger of the Wolfson entrants with leading rider Castellano re-riding the recent key race winner (3 wins, 5 subsequent starters).

Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1463

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 448-277-224

Amount Wagered: $2,928 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,051.40

Profit to Date: $123.40

Written by John Pricci


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