Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Turf to Dirt? No Problema

There are times, like in today's featured fourth race at Gulfstream, when a small field can offer value because of its competitiveness. Not real sure about the value part, but the competitiveness?

Four of the six horses can win, in our estimation, and a fifth goes first time off the Marty Wolfson claim, a profitable 29% scenario and the longer half of an uncoupled entry. (See what I mean?)

Anyway, when last seen, the Todd Pletcher trained Ana Luisa (2-1) was making her U.S. debut in an overnight stakes at 7-1/2 furlongs on the turf now, like several of these allowances fillies and mares, is back on the dirt. After getting into a rhythm last month, the filly swing wide into the lane and finished strongly too late (see replay).

Given sufficient recovery time, note that this filly was 2-for-2 on wet tracks in her native Brazil. As this is written at 7:22 am, it is raining outside my South Florida window.

Take Ana Luisa to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing her with Giant Cats Eye (4-1), much improved for Eddie Plesa, and Centrique (3-1), the stronger of the Wolfson entrants with leading rider Castellano re-riding the recent key race winner (3 wins, 5 subsequent starters).

Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1463

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 448-277-224

Amount Wagered: $2,928 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,051.40

Profit to Date: $123.40

Written by John Pricci


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