Friday, February 07, 2014
Reward Trumps Risk in Gulfstream Feature
You might choose to disbelieve this but of the 11 fillies and mares that drew into the body of today's featured optional/non-winners of 3 turfer at one mile, I seriously considered picking eight of the entrants--yes the race is that tough.
So, after counting the number of speed types, the back-class fillies and the top turf outfits involved, I landed on Waterway Run (10-1). Why?
Well, the odds for one, the fact the former European is from a barn, Chad Brown's, that a worthy and profitable 38% effective in that scenario, first Lasix, first Rosario but, really, all of the above.
But wait, there's more!
Two years ago, this filly was beaten less than 6 lengths by Flotilla in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf when unable to do her best while in close quarters through the stretch. Last year, she was beaten by relatively the same margin at today's distance by Flotilla in the Group 1 French Oaks. But is she ready to fire her best shot in her first race since June?
In steady training since mid-January at Palm Meadows, the stats say yes Chad will have her set, there's the class on the grass factor and what should be bet-able odds in a big field. No guts...
Taking Waterway Run to win at 6-1 or greater and key-boxing her in multiples with distance lover Unbelievable Dream (4-1), second--off-layoff Triple Charm (6-1), Lily the Pink (12-1) reuniting with Leparoux for Tom Proctor and likely trip-sitter Via Villaggio (8-1) for the Maker/Castellano team.
Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1470
Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 448-279-224
Amount Wagered: $2,942 [to win only]
Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,051.40
Profit to Date: $109.40