Sunday, February 26, 2012
A Model of Consistency
Today’s Gulfstream feature is the highly anticipated Fountain of Youth Stakes that is deservedly billed as a three horse race among two undefeated Todd Pletcher trained colts, Algorithms (8-5) and Discreet Dancer (3-1), and a colt many feel was the best juvenile to race last year.
On the Equiform scale, those in that camp may be right. Union Rags (2-1) ran as fast going long when second to Hansel in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as Algorithms did while winning the Holy Bull. (The fastest final figure belongs to Discreet Dancer in his sprint debut.)
Union Rags will have two preps for the Kentucky Derby, so he figures to be pretty tight for today’s race. Matz has been handling him in that fashion while careful not to turn the screws too tightly. He might prove the “best horse” of the big three but how that translates today is little more than a guess.
Algorithms, based on a newly found ability to rate and the fact the trainer Pletcher owns a 25% strike rate with third-off-the-layoff starters. But what if Discreet Dancer gets away soft because rivals are too afraid to press him early? Or Union Rags indeed is the “best horse.” A fascinating puzzle to be sure.
We’re taking likely pocket-sitting finisher Algorithms to win with no price restrictions, key boxing him in exactas with his two main rivals and adding excuse-laden Casual Trick (8-1) to the exotics mix.
Running Totals: (1032) 319-203-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,199.80 [win selections only]