Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

How Do I Win?  How Do I Win!

We'll be taking a look at a 3 year old stakes race at Aqueduct that is likely to have no bearing on the Kentucky Derby; the 6 furlong Fred 'Cappy' Capposela.

If you believe performance figures are the measure, then you're most likely to land on early line favorite Ancient Rome (5-2). This speedster had ascending figures sprinting until his connections decided to go long in the Gulfstream Park Derby. Experiment: Failed.

SInce then, Anthony Dutrow has regrouped, freshened the speedster, shipped him north a a return to his best distance, and tapped C C Lopez to partner. Lopez, as many know, is a speed rider extraordinaire.

But we'e going to opt for How Do I Win (7-2), a horse trainer Todd Pletcher has called disappointing; quite a mouthful for the future first ballot Hall of Famer. We noticed before that whenever he had his doubts about one of his runners, invariably he'd shorten that horse up, the tack here.

When last seen, he was setting the pace the Grade 3 Withers but proved no match for Alpha. Considering that that 3-year-old is the likely second choice to Union Rags in the Florida Derby, this is no disgrace. This sprint is ungraded and his pole position will allow Cornelio Velasquez a look at the action from close range. Turn backs are a Pletcher specialty, profitable despite a large sample in that category.

Taking How Do I Win to finish first at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in multiples with the favorite and the equally fast Chad Brown trainee, Beggarthyneighbor (6-1).

Running Totals: (1039) 321-203-150 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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