Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Betting Figures Won’t Lie

Cary Fotias always said "live by the numbers, die by the numbers." Think TTT has said it, too. As we wrote yesterday, there's more than that to consider.

Well, today's 7th at GP is a good illustration of living by the numbers and that's the tack we're taking.

Now Morgan's Guerrrilla (3-1) is a good example of classifying what with his back-class and recent third to the uber classy Normandy Invasion while coming off the layup. He will be heavily backed and obviously has an excellent chance on the turn-back.

Figures-wise, however, we prefer Accelerare (5-2), the early line favorite that might not be overbet as most Pletcher trainees are at this meet because of the presence of 'Morgan's' and others.

The newly turned 4YO did what you want to see, come back a year older and run a few notches faster, sheets-speak indicating development. And he's no slouch in the class department either, having finished a good second to Moreno on the Belmont undercard last year.

Training on schedule since, record-setting Castellano sticks around for the stretch-out.

Taking Accelerare to win at 2-1 or greater, and exacta box with his main rival here, and adding turf-to-dirt Best Man (10-1) to the super-exotics mix.

Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1493

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 457-284-228

Amount Wagered: $2,988 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,127.60

Profit to Date: $139.60

Written by John Pricci


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