Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Our Caravan to Take Off in Peter Pan

Normally, when horses run exceptionally faster than they ever did before, such as Wicked Strong in the Wood, it's fair to expect them to regress in their next start.

So then why am I not expecting a regression from Our Caravan (5-1) in today's G2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park?

Well, actually, I am, sort of, but his last race, when equipped with blinkers for the first time and racing 9 furlongs for the first time resulted in a wow performance, I believe the equipment change, distance, and the fact that 3YOs often improve dramatically at this time of year, it's worth bucking the accepted wisdom.

And, so, were taking Our Caravan, managed by the talented Michael Dilger, to win at 4-1 or greater and key boxing him in exactas with the classy Tonalist (2-1) and Commissioner (5-2), who's been challenged by extenuating circumstances in his most recent starts.

Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1522

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 465-291-234

Amount Wagered: $3,044 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,161.40

Profit to Date: $117.40

Written by John Pricci


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