Thursday, May 17, 2012
Betting Stay Thirsty Could Prove Tricky
Today’s Belmont Park feature is really an interesting one, the Vanlandingham overnight stakes featuring the return of Jim Dandy and Travers winning Stay Thirsty (7-5). The 4-year-old hasn’t run since finishing off the board in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Given the winter off at Jim Crupi’s Ocala Farm, he returned to trainer Todd Pletcher at the Palm Meadows training center in March and has been working with purpose since.
But this is no “gimme” spot to take a short price, not that the best alternative offers a lot of value, either. This is especially true for Stay Thirsty, that is winless in three starts over the local ground.
(Value, of course, means betting price relative to chances for success—not some horse that pays a big price).
For his part, the formerly undefeated speedster Trickmeister (8-5) has not been seen since setting a pressured pace while rank in the Donn Handicap. Certainly not without his issues, the lightly raced 5-year-old has been training strongly for his Belmont debut.
There appears only one horse capable of pressing the Rick Dutrow trainee’s pace here but Joan’s Choice, stepping up big time here, would compromise his chances by doing so. Besides, Trickmeister edge a solid edge on pace figures.
Taking Trickmeister to win at early line odds, preferably greater, keying him with his two rivals here and the price shot Swag Daddy, his uncoupled stablemate switching to Rosie.
Running Totals: (1078) 331-210-161 Total Dollar Return: $2,281.10 [win selections only]