Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Tuesday, May 10, 2016


Keeneland Shipper Call in Competitive Feature


Now this is a wide open race, as opposed to Derby, and the call goes to Finn's Girl who impressed us favorably at 2.

After an eye-opening debut in the Delaware Valley, she shipped to Saratoga and was a good third to the raging Harmonizer, finishing third.

Troubled in her return in Lexington, we expect Motion trainee to move forward big time in her second start off the break.

Taking Finn's Girl (4-1) to win at 3-1 or greater and key-boxing exactas with Chad Euro import Elysea's World (3-1), and underrated recent claim My Good Venezuela (15-1).

Number of Selections since 2007: 2016

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 601-388

Amount Wagered: $4,032.00 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $4,066.20

Profit to Date: $34.20

Written by John Pricci

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Thursday, May 05, 2016


Oaks-Derby Double, Belmont Late P4, Too


TOM JICHA
DERBY


1. Nyquist--Has made no mistakes
2. Exaggerator—Exits best Derby prep
3. Gun Runner--Undefeated at 3, fits pattern
4. Mor Spirit--Always right there
5. Mohaymen--Defensive pick, don't much like

OAKS


1. Land Over Sea--O'Neill sweeps the weekend
2. Terra Promessa--Perfect last four
3. Lewis Bay--Chad has her peaking

MARK BERNER
DERBY


1- Mohaymen training smartly following lone defeat.
2- Gun Runner was freshened off top BRIS fig win.
3- Nyquist is unlikely to remain undefeated at trip.
4- Brody's Cause is in form but drew poor post.
5- Exaggerator needs pace help and may need wet.

OAKS

1- Lewis Bay won last under wraps.
2- Land Over Sea has good seconds to Songbird.
3- Rachel's Valentina never been out of exacta.

INDULTO
DERBY


1. Gun Runner – Top prep wins in succession
2. Nyquist – Premier prep win, undefeated champion
3. Exaggerator – G1 prep winner, best figures
4. Creator – G1 prep score, strongest closer
5. Brody's Cause – Top prep win, horse-for-course

OAKS


1. Weep No More – Beat strongest first & last out
2. Rachel Valentina – BC second to Champ Songbird
3. Cathryn Sophia – Very good third to top two

JOHN PRICCI
DERBY


1. Mohaymen – Failed, now passes eyeball test
2. Gun Runner – Peaking, perfect trip looming?
3. Suddenbreakingnews – Straight forward colt saves ground
4. Nyquist -- Undeniably classy and accomplished
5. Mor Spirit – Strictly Prepping Last Two


OAKS

1. Rachel’s Valentina – Ashland placing perfect prep
2. Lewis Bay – Impressed at Big A, more to come, value
3. Land Over Sea –Distance, no Songbird has proven key

Conventional Running Totals normally appearing here will be tabulated based on the Oaks & Derby and will return early next week

Late P4 Saturday BELMONT PARK, listed by program number with early line odds


RACE 9: ALLOWANCES NY-BRED NW2 1-1/16 MILES

1-Thirst for Glory (6-1) comes off sharp flat-mile score at Big A, earning competitive Pricci Energy Figure. Record of (3) 1-1-0 this trip, (9) 1-1-0 doing anything else. Tries next condition losing J Ortiz to rival Force.
1A-Pop the Hood (6-1) stopped very badly after recent pace duel subsequent to winning both prior starts. Earned best figure under similar dynamic as fall 2-year-old.
2-Force (3-1) makes season’s debut as gelded 4YO and was prepared over Ocala synth in preparation for Oxley/Casse connections. Won NY Derby at 3 now returns at pluperfect distance attracting Ortiz. Barn off to good start at young meet.
3-Extinct Charm (20-1) versatile sort makes season’s debut for Contessa, a profitable 14% effective with 90-days+ layups. Has done his best on turf but drops in with state-breds here with recent start work. Value at early line quote.
4-Sinistra (8-1) goes first time off the Rudy claim, a profitable 29% scenario, and meets tougher and form is abysmal. Do you believe in magic?
5-Hunt’s Road (12-1) also haltered by Rudy, from Todd, for same 25K and dusted his uncoupled mate in recent company work April 28. Intriguing.
6-Cards of Stone (2-1) worthy Todd favorite was a top-figure blowout winner on Big A Inner then was very aggressively spotted in G1 Blue Grass, tiring badly after chasing pace throughout from wide post. Back with friends, blinkers removed, and reunites with Carmouche. Single potential for many.
7-Beyond the Green (6-1) has excellent upset chance off fast PER going 7 furlongs last out and barn is profitable in allowances and also with runners going sprint to route.
8-All About Ashley (10-1) had troubled start and was beaten 5 lengths— only 2 3/4s behind ‘Green’. Mott 22% in LAY-2 scenarios and Belmont lover is 2-for-3 here, 0-for-10 anywhere else. Live price shot.
9-Testosterstone (12-1) earned freakish figure while winning two back then bounced next out. Now more than three months between lifetime best effort and this. Switches to apprentice with purposeful recent works.

RACE 10 G3 FORT MARCY STAKES 4 & UP 1-1/8 MILES INNER TURF

1-Messi (5-1) is 2-for-2 on this ground, including the G3 Knickerbocker last fall at this trip. Motion profitable off these long layoffs and partnering with Van Dyke of late. May prefer firmer ground.
2-Legendary (12-1) has been toughened in G1s—third in Manhattan here last year—has three exacta finishes including win at the trip, is 3-for-5 on this ground, 3-for-24 everywhere else.
3-Perfect Title (15-1) is nowhere near as accomplished as these but has won three of last six with a nose defeat; ship sin off sharp Laurel score in season’s debut and barn is profitable in LAY-2 situations; money prospects at a price.
4-Smooth Daddy (30-1) is from barn having profitable 2016 but remains eligible for NW3; winless in five starts this trip.
5-Howe Great (20-1) has trained purposefully all winter for return, making first start since July. Tom Bush can get one ready off a break; blowout over course and reunites with Arroyo, second in this race 2015.
6-Go Around (8-1) is a developing 4YO for Mott, a winner of half his eight lifetime starts and exits a series of rapidly run routes, his attest a Florida-bred stakes win at Tampa Bay. Broke maiden here. May offer value; check tote.
7-Blacktype (15-1) gelded 5YO returns with steady workline for Clement and showed much improvement at 4 after adding blinkers. Drops weight for barn 21% efficient with 90-days+ layups.
8-Ironicus (8-5) came into his own at 4 to become most accomplished member of this field. Returns from minor issue that surfaced after winning G2 Baruch in September. Working very well for return and attracts Ortiz.
9-Red Rifle (8-1) was highly competitive against better grade in 2015, has winning profile overall (23) 7-6-1, appeared to need recent KEE return (see video) and Todd profitable 26% second off a layoff. Early line quote more than fair.
10-Force the Pass (4-1) is a talented G1 winner—over this course last year—and returns in this G3 after game third following duel in GP Appleton. Switch to Carmouche suits colt’s style. Barn having terrific 2016 and offers excellent value on early line.
11-Good Luck Gus (2-1) Main Track Only

RACE 11 G2 SHEEPSHEAD BAY STAKES F&M 1-3/8 MILES INNER TURF

1-Sea Calisi (4-5) makes U.S. debut in relatively soft spot for Schwartz/Brown team that’s quite effective shipping west to the U.S. Typical Chad workline for man batting 30% with new acquisitions. First time Lasix, of course. Single potential for many.
2-Guapaza (6-1) finished well late for 3rd in tough trip U.S. debut, GP’s G3 The Very One behind highly promising Olorda, a subsequent repeater. Dual G2 winner in her native Chile. Value at early line odds.
3-Robillard (10-1) has not started since November and not particularly well bred for this trip. However, Kiaran profitable with all turf runners and with 90-days+ returnees.
4-Nakuti (6-1) should benefit from recent 5YO debut after being beaten less than 3 lengths in Can-G1 EP Taylor in NA debut last fall, Motion profitable in graded stakes and 19% second off the layup.
5-Selenite (20-1) showed promise as younger state-bred turf performer but form has regressed; could use a confidence booster, not this.
6-Carla Bianca (3-1) is another highly regarded European import making debut for Clement with blinkers removed and Lasix on, a 28% profitable scenario.

RACE 12 CLAIMING $25,000 3 & UP 1-1/16 MILES

1-Fire Alarm (4-1) is a five time winner at the distance, beat tougher two back now drops back down to level of claim for Levine. Logical suspect.
2-Frost Jordan (30-1) was beaten 35 lengths by similar or weaker in last two starts. Move to Belmont will help but not enough is highly unlikely.
3-Beautyinthepulpit (3-1), eased in last, was highly competitive in state-bred claimers in two priors, winning one. Drops to open $12,500 looks realistic for Rudy Rod, as does reuniting with Bisono.
4-C J’s Awesome (2-1) dropped to win two back, was spotted aggressively thereafter, now drops again stretching out to optimal distance. Live but with mixed signals nonetheless.
5-Divine Child (10-1) was claimed by OSB III two back, ran him back for $16K and is now out of jail back to level of claim. Barn 21% effective second off the claim and expecting major improvement with switch to Cancel.
6-Futurazo (15-1) earned highly competitive PER in recent season’s debut at Flakes and drops weight shipping in for low profile barn that’s 32% effective with small sample of claimers and is 1-for-4 with two money finishes in second start off the claim. Live price shot.
7-Lure of the South (6-1) just missed in latest after being claimed for fifth time in six starts. Gullo is 25% effective with beaten favorites and leading rider Ortiz takes the return call.
8-Chairman Now (10-1) disappointed in main track return after winning two Big A Inner routes and is winless here in 11 attempts. Stretches to best trip (22) 8-4-3; mixed signals.
9-Imahandsome Man (20-1) has been competitive with tougher at Tampa of late and has found likely spot for Belmont debut. Gelded 4YO appears a steal at early line odds getting switch to Arroyo.

Belmont Late P4 via special promotional arrangement with http://www.123BET.com


Written by John Pricci



 
 

Wednesday, May 04, 2016


Tampa Shipper Looms Large


Today's Belmont featured eighth race is for 3YOs looking to escape their preliminary allowance conditions. Should Economic Model (2-1) explode this afternoon, think Brody's Cause; he didn't left a leg at Tampa and all he did was win the Blue Grass.

'Model" returns with profitable spacing for Chad Brown and the Tampa Derby was key, producing two next-out winners. Figure this colt will be the third.

Taking Economic Model to win, no price restrictions, and key boxing with KEE maiden breaker Conquest Harlequin (7-2), fast stretch-out At Guard (5-1) and sharp, newly blinkered price shot, Jay's Way (12-1).




Number of Selections since 2007: 2013

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 600-388

Amount Wagered: $4,026.00 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $4,062.50

Profit to Date: $36.50

Written by John Pricci



 
 

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