Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Plenty of Pesos With this Shipper
Toda’s feature at Gulfstream is a preliminary allowances that has drawn a few interesting three-year-olds going a flat mile. The main contenders are Phantom Rising (5-2), Uno Peso (10-1) and Run All Day (4-1).
Phantom Rising won his debut at 7 furlongs, usually a sing of inherent class, ran fast, and did it the right way. Bill Mott is en fuego, and he’s given this guy more than sufficient recovery time for his return. He could wind up the best of these good looking colts.
Uno Peso is the most interesting. He earned the fastest figure, and at a flat mile, over a wet Churchill track as a two-year-old. After a game second in his well meant season’s debut, he was run off his feet by faster in the Suncoast, both recent starts over the quirky Tampa surface. Now he’s back at a flat mile making his third start off the layup and reunites with maiden breaking partner, Julien Leparoux.
Run All Day is the house horse: a Stronach owned, Brian Lynch trained sophomore that looked good winning its last under today’s conditions, earning a competitive figure and distributing his energy more efficiently. He could easily repeat.
But we’ll throw deep with Uno Peso to win at 6-1 or greater and key him in exactas and trifectas with his main rivals here.
Running Totals: (389) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
The Grass is Greener at Gulfstream Park
In celebration of Florida Derby week--or until New York can card some interesting features once again--we’ll be taking a look at the Gulfstream Park headliner all week.
The featured eighth race is a wide open $50,000 claimer on the turf for older horses going a mile. What we don’t know is where the Irish rail will be placed. On Sunday, the last day of racing, they ran on the hedge with no rail and out 96 feet, the widest position on the course the rail can be placed.
(The rule of thumb is that the narrower the circumference, the better for the pace horses. Despite five inches of rain here late last week, the course was rated good on Sunday, which was right on the mark.)
On paper, today’s mile is a battle between two classy old pros vs. two younger and sharper rivals. Since either figures to be the better price than the “class” horses, we’ll err on the side of value.
Murch (6-1) has more class, if his Equiform figures are the measure, and is faster than Man Above (8-1). But the latter has made great strides for Eddie Plesa, who’s handled him like a good horse [schedule-wise] after beating $35,000 rivals last time out. Freshened, Man Above races best in that scenario, and owns tactical speed in a paceless race. The presence of position conscious Elvis Trujillo helps his chances.
We’ll go for the gusto. Taking Man Above to win at 6-1 or greater, [turf only] boxing him in the exacta with Murch, and adding the two class types, Wood Be Willing (3-1) and Ballast (5-2) to the trifecta mix.
Running Totals: (388) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Up the Creek Without a Good Play
Racing office in a slump with many small-field features of late. Today some nice looking three-year-olds will race one mile and 70 yards. The two fastest on performance figures here are The Prince (8-5) and Monk’s Creek (7-5). No surprise, and no real opportunity to make money.
While I think the linemaker has the right favorite, my feeling is that The Prince will be a shorter price at post time. First, he’s faster by a fairly significant margin. Second, he attracts Ramon Dominguez from the pole position.
But Monk’s Creek is more interesting. After breaking his maiden at 5-½ furlongs at the Big A in November, he shipper to Florida with the ‘A’ group of McLaughlin horses and showed significant improvement while moving up in class and distance at 7 furlongs, not easily done.
Now it’s back to New York with a bullet work in the holster for an outfit that’s a profitable 25 percent efficient first time going long. Further, he has a chance to catch up with his main rival figure-wise since he’s had twice as much recovery time and The Prince is coming off a big top.
Taking Monk’s Creek to win at 7-5 or greater and using him on top in exactas with The Prince and Cellar Dweller (4-1), who has competitive figures and two turn experience.
Running Totals: (387) 119-81-52 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci