Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Saturday, October 04, 2014


Upstart Won’t Be After Today’s Champagne


Who says you can't find value in small fields? I did, in today's Grade 1 Champagne for juvenile going a mile. His name is Upstart (7-2).

Since he debuted in Saratoga, his connections always treated him like a good horse, with post-race schooling by the jockey, handlers rushing out to greet him before he reached the winners' circle after his impressive score.

After that, Rick Violette entered the New York bred back in a stakes on relatively short rest. In that sprint, the very fast Bustin' It was loose on the lead while this colt spotted him many. When ready, Jose Ortiz set him down and he came with a flying finish to go 2-for-2.

Still treating him like a good horse, he was given a bit over six weeks, has trained well in the interim, and appears to be able to handle any dynamic.

Taking Upstart to win at 3-1 or greater and key-boxing him in exactas with impressive maiden breaker El Kabeir (5-2) and talented, seasoned I Spent It (6-1) who either was no match for Competitive Edge or regressed returning on relatively short rest after winning the G2 Sanford.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1620

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 491-314-251

Amount Wagered: $3,240 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,361.20

Profit to Date: $121.20

Written by John Pricci

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Friday, October 03, 2014


Seeking Value in Keeneland’s Lidlifter, a Wide Open Alcibiades


Well celebrate the Keeneland opening by focusing on the Alcabiades, always contentious no matter what surface it was run on and, of course, today it's DIRT.

Yeah!

However, we're hoping for a fair surface and not the old inside-speed highway. We shall see.

If it's a race for juveniles, which it is, of course, Todd Pletcher will be a strong factor, of course.

Here he saddles early line favorite Fashion Alert (4-1), a fast filly who leaves from the pole with Johnny and is 2-for-2 lifetime, including the G3 Schuylerville on opening day at Saratoga. Can you say pointed toward this?

Still, we'll take the value offered by Calamity Kate (8-1), a recent maiden breaker who comes in off three races at graduating distances and energy figures that have improved incrementally. She has tactical speed, a favorable inside draw, and she can kick. Kelly Breen taps his go-to guy, Paco Lopez.

Taking Calamity Kate to win at 6-1 or greater, boxing the exacta with Fashion Alert, and adding price shots Naval Command (15-1) and Innovative Idea (10-1) to the super-exotics mix.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1619

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 491-314-251

Amount Wagered: $3,238 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,361.20

Profit to Date: $123.20

Written by John Pricci

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Thursday, October 02, 2014


Brown Speedster Just Looks Too Tough


Tried as I might, could not honestly believe I could beat the favored Bakken (8-5) is today's secondary allowance/optional claiming feature for 3 & up going 6-1/2 furlongs. He's simply too damn fast.

Not only that, but he can set punishing factions and keep on going. Lightly raced, there obviously are some issues here but since he's been training right along for some time, enters this fresh for Chad Brown, his kind of speed might be worthy of a try in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He could punch that ticket here with Javier along for the ride.

It's like Moreno's trainer says: if you're ahead of this guy, you're going too fast. Don't believe any of his rivals wants to be, or can be, that sacrificial lamb.

Taking Bakken to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing exactas with properly spotted Captain Serious (5-2) and the very sharp Geaux Mets (12-1).

Number of Selections since 2007: 1618

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 490-314-251

Amount Wagered: $3,236 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,358.20

Profit to Date: $122.20

Written by John Pricci

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