Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Monday, July 05, 2010

Qualia Continues to Blossom in Bed o’ Roses

Terrific renewal of the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses at Belmont Park for fillies and mares sprinting 7 furlongs. Half the eight-horse field can win it, perhaps even five of these fast ladies.

The one thing this race doesn’t lack is early gas. Rightly So (2-1) could be the speed of the speed and is 2-for-3 at Belmont. But that might not help her against ship-in Lady Alexander (8-1), the speedball from Monmouth Park that just worked in :45 2/5 for this.

At least we’re looking for some sort of a duel because that will put Qualia (5-2) in the catbird seat. In a five-race career she’s done very little wrong. A neck defeat prevents her from a perfect 5-0 record.

Qualia came out running fast performance figures, that trend has continued, and she doesn’t appeared over-developed in terms of the improvement she’s shown from race to race. Returning in this time frame is perfect, a profitable 21 percent move for Bobby Ribaudo who, like his filly, hasn’t taken any missteps.

Taking Qualia to win at early line odds, boxing her in the exacta with RIghtly So, and keying her first and second in trifectas with the two fillies named above, adding late-running McVictory, making her second start for the Pletcher barn, to the mix.

Running Totals: (683) 219-138-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,538.30 [win selections only]

Due to the holiday schedule, we’re making selections on Monday this week. The FRA will return on Wednesday

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, July 03, 2010

Lots of Fireworks, and an Upset, in Belmont’s Suburban

A very interesting renewal of the Suburban Handicap. All eyes will be on the very classy returnees from long layups, I Want Revenge and Regal Ransom. I Want Revenge, returning from serious surgery and absent since the 2009 Wood Memorial is ultimately pointing for the Whitney and four of his five career defeats have come when he's fresh. Think I want him at 7-5 early line odds?

Then there's Regal Ransom (2-1), who has excellent early speed, has won at the distance and is working absolutely lights out for a barn, Saeed bin Suroor's, that's a very worthy, and profitable, 33% efficient off long layoffs. How about Convocation (4-1) who's certainly bred for nine furlongs but acts like a miler.

What has the New York bred Haynesfield done wrong lately. Seven for 10 in his career, 3-for-4 at Belmont and 2-for-2 at the distance, his prep for this was outstanding, a mile that went in 1:34 3/5, the last six furlongs in an eye opening 1:10 3/5. Breaking from the extreme outside beneath Ramon Dominguez, his excellent early speed and conditioning can keep him in the catbird seat until Ramon pushes the button.

Taking Haynesfield to win at 4-1 or greater and boxing him in the exacta with Regal Ransom.

Running Totals: (682) 218-138-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,528.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, July 02, 2010

Running Like Gangbusters

Yesterday we saw an example of how it’s possible to find value in a small field but while yesterday required trying to beat the early line favorites, today’s puzzle is trying to determine which of four horses ultimately will be the public’s choice. Indeed, this one’s an open scramble.

Accordingly, one could go any number of ways. Buddy’s Humor (3-1) goes well fresh, as does trainer Bruce Levine. Tactical speed and the rail are never usually bad things on Belmont’s inner turf going 1-1/16th miles.

There’s Cherokee Artist (5-2) who’s been toughened in graded stakes and reuniting with Ramon Dominguez, who rode him to two consecutive victories last year for regular client Graham Motion. And there’s Wesley (3-1), another who’s been cutting his teeth and high class graded rivals.

But it’s Gangbuster (4-1) who appears to have the most upside. In his first start for Tim Ice two races back, his first as a five year old and at Belmont Park, he showed an instant liking for the course, drawing off rapidly in deep stretch, albeit beating lesser than he will meet here.

But his effort, both visually and against the clock, was good enough to beat a group like today’s. Subsequently, he was overmatched on dirt in the Grade 2 Brooklyn, a race that should have taken little out of him, as Kent Desormeaux protected him, easing him across the finish line. Since the Brooklyn, he’s had two brisk drills, indicating a repeat of his Belmont debut is very probable. The class rise should help insure bettable odds.

Taking Gangbuster to win at 3-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with Wesley and Buddy’s Humor.

Running Totals: (680) 218-138-95 Total Dollar Return: $1,528.40 [win selections only] {Thursday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


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