Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, December 12, 2008
Surprised if Grusmark Filly Doesn’t Weather the Storm
Another good overnight stakes for today’s feature, the You’d Be Surprised Stakes for fillies and mares 3 & up going a mile and 70 yards on the winter oval. Three we find most interesting are Weathered, Jasmine Gardens and Blues For Sale.
Weathered is consistently fastest on performance figures, loves the game having compiled a 7-for-11 lifetime record, has won on this surface and handles any type of footing. Compelling enough. But when you consider she has an edge in fitness, too, returning on 12 days rest, has tactical speed and an inside draw, you’d be surprised in Mike Luzzi didn’t write his own trip note here.
Jasmine Gardens is one of those late developers that has improved with maturity and trainer Tom Albertrani is pressing the proper buttons now with respect to her training and spacing between starts. Her tactical speed gives her options to come out of the first turn in good position despite her wide draw on short run to the bend. Alan Garcia will be able to figure it all out. The daughter of Mineshaft is on the come and her figures keep forging forward.
Blues For Sale is the mystery horse that could prove the key here. A multiple Group 3 and Group 2 winner in her native Argentina, she’s won nine of 12 lifetime starts and was purchased privately by the IEAH folks. She’s making her first start in over a year but does so for Rick Dutrow and she makes her American debut after being entered and scratched from a main track race last month. Who knows how good?
Taking Weathered to repeat at 2-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with her rivals here.
Running Totals: (326) 98-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $686.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Singing in the Rain
Today’s feature is a good one, the Parlay Me overnight stakes at six furlongs that has attracted a field of talented sprinters. What’s problematic is knowing what the likely track condition will be, as yesterday ended with a sealed wet track. Unfortunately, the forecast at this writing is for more precipitation.
There are several among the field of eight who like or can handle wet footing. Accredit (3-1) excels on wet track. Not only is he 3-for-3 on wet tracks but his best figures have come over these surfaces. Kiaran McLaughlin is profitable with third off the layup types and is 29 percent efficient when he taps Alan Garcia.
The fastest horses are performance figures, however, are M J’s Enchanteur (9-2) and Lantana Mob (5-2).
The early line favorite is clearly the fastest horse and has been highly competitive in graded stakes. Further, his best game is as a stretch-running sprinter and there’s plenty of gas in this heat. Ramon Dominguez helps, of course, and so does an outside post in wet footing. But clearly he’s been better on dry tracks.
M J’s Enchanteur makes his second start off a layup, handles wet footing, is also drawn outside and holds a formidable pace edge here. The Scott Lake horses have come out firing of late and the sharpster’s pace edge will allow him to dictate to this field. Josue Arce has a lower profile than his rivals here, but is a profitably remarkable 24 percent efficient in sprints after 257 rides.
Taking the likely value offered with M J’s Enchanteur to win at 4-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his rivals here.
Running Totals: (325) 98-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $686.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Nothing Could Be Finah… Second Verse
The racetrack cliché among the old-timers is that the place you lose it is the place you get it back. In today’s preliminary allowances/optional claimer for fillies and mares 3 & up going a mile and seventy yards, today’s Aqueduct winter track route is where My Dinah (7-2) gets it back for readers of this space.
We liked her last out when she was asked to go nine furlongs on a main track covered in a sea of slop. She handled the conditions, but she didn’t love it, and how can you kick home strongly at that distance after stalking in the middle of the track throughout? The answer is you really can’t.
Trainer Kathleen Feron has entered her back quickly--10 days--indicating she’s a stout miss, as her pedigree would indicate, the underrated Jose Espinosa takes the re-ride and today’s shorter distance will help her punch in more effectively. Her performance figures have been consistently good at this level of competition.
Taking My Dinah to win at 3-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with Discovery Launch (10-1), dropping a notch and projected as a loose early leader, and One Step Ahead (7-2), 1-for-1 in the Levine barn and picking up Rajiv Maragh, in the midst of a career year and riding with great confidence of late. Trifecta players can add Mikeslittlegirl (3-1), coming off a delayed pace improvement in its last dirt race, to their mix.
Running Totals: (324) 98-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $686.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci