Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Some Value Available in Competitive Big A Sprint
Today’s feature is a little gem, an overnighter, the Maria’s Mon, attracting some talented, late developing three-year-old sprinters going three-quarters of a mile.
From the inside, out, we’ll concentrate on Leonardo (9-5), Appealing Spring (6-1) and Roi Maudit (2-1).
Leonardo has just blossomed this fall. His last was excellent, his first start with blinkers and beneath Javier Castellano. Castellano, hottest rider on the circuit, takes the re-ride on a colt who should sit tucked in behind the speed from his inside slip. While he’s recent work was third best that day, it was the fastest move posted by a three-year-old at the distance for the week. He will be a tough out.
When last seen, Appealing Spring was rushing up the inside of a deep sloppy Monmouth track on the Friday preceding Breeders’ Cup. (And, contrary to popular theories, two trusted sources walked the Monmouth surface and found the inside and extreme outside to be the most holding parts of the sloppy surface). He has excellent company lines in his PPs, is 2-for-2 beneath Joe Bravo, and clearly has improved since moving into Kelly Breen’s shed.
Moi Maudit also will be a very tough out, especially if he duplicates his last effort for Bill Mott. His last two performance figures were excellent and he seeks his third straight win off two dominating efforts over lesser. Working well since his last race, he’s nicely drawn to give Johnny Velasquez a bird’s-eye view of the developments. He clearly fits the anticipated race shape.
Taking Moi Maudit to win at 2-1 or more and an exacta box with Appealing Spring. Also, will key him in trifecta money positions with Leonardo, Appealing Spring and probable value Blue Bullet (9-2).
Running Totals: (129) 44-29-14. Total Dollar Return: $261.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Royal Highness To Take Measure of European Three-Year-Old
Yesterday, the Red Smith, today, the distaff equivalent, the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap for fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, at 12 furlongs.
This fixture usually attracts European invaders and this year is no exception. The depth of quality, however, is lacking, and the only interesting filly that made the trip is Dalvina, a John Dunlop trainee getting first-time Lasix and attracting Cornelio Velasquez. She has been competitive in group events going a distance of ground and, as a three-year-old, has upside potential. She should handle whatever footing she encounters.
Christophe Clement has an uncoupled stable entry here and, clearly, Royal Highness is best of the American entrants. A winner of the Grade 1 Beverly D. last August, she raced evenly while wide throughout the G1 Flower Bowl. Less accomplished rivals, added distance, and the ability to handle any ground, suits the five-year-old owner of the best performance figures in the field. And she’s earned those figures with consistency. Expect Javier Castellano to time her late run perfectly.
Taking Royal Highness to win, no price restrictions, and an exacta box with Dalvina.
Running Totals: (128) 44-29-14. Total Dollar Return: $261.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, November 10, 2007
The One Clement Left Behind
Today’s feature is one of the few remaining graded stakes of the New York season, the grassy G2 Red Smith Handicap. It’s probably a safe bet that the ground will be far from firm, the level of wetness depending on how much abuse the course received yesterday. The handicap has drawn a full field and all the entrants have warts. There aren’t too many legitimate G2 horses in the group.
We will concentrate on three, from the inside, out: Golden Strategy (10-1), Operation Red Dawn (8-1) and Sunshine Kid (12-1).
Golden Strategy ships up from Florida for the prolific Marty Wolfson, a true turf ace whose grass runners are profitable for his career as are his shippers. At 28 percent overall, Wolfson probably is enjoying a career year. Wolfson’s charge has run fast, has plenty of upside as a lightly raced four-year-old, showed potential in his only turf start, the G3 Kentucky Cup Turf at Kentucky Downs, and attracts Eddie Castro, Wolfson’s go-to guy when the rider was hanging his tack in Florida.
Operation Red Dawn has stayed home for Christophe Clement, who has shipped many of his top class runners West to Hollywood Park. He finished like a rocket despite altering course in the G3 Knickerbocker here while prepping for this, and the late developing five-year-old gelding appears to have been raced into top form. Channing Hill is an underrated young rider that knows the value of saving ground on grass.
Sunshine Kid is interesting on many levels. Ridden by Herb McCauley, thus far making a successful comeback by going 5-for-15 at this meet through Thursday’s races, Sunshine Kid ships over for John Gosden, who is a worthy 18 percent efficient when he ships back to the U.S. Sunshine Kid is a late developing three-year-old that’s been competitive in French group company and has handled all kinds of footing. His outside post can be a hindrance, of course, but it also might help him earn a covered-up trip, the preferred tack for European turf runners.
Taking Operation Red Dawn to win at 9-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with Golden Strategy and Sunshine Kid.
Running Totals: (128) 44-29-14. Total Dollar Return: $261.50 [win wagers only]
Written by John Pricci