Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Sunday, July 01, 2007
‘Mob’ Makes Big Hit in Tremont
With three added money events on the Belmont Park docket this afternoon, we’ll concentrate on the Tremont Stakes for two-year-old colts going five and a half furlongs. Three worthy of serious consideration are, from the inside out; Nordic Wind, Lantana Mob and Ready’s Image.
Nordic Wind turned a lot of heads when he outran six rivals to an impressive victory going four and a half furlongs at Delaware Park showing high early speed in the short run to the turn. With the speed positioned outside the Mary Pearson trainee, look for Delaware’s Kendrick Carmouche to send the colt to establish position early. He could lead this throughout.
Ready’s Image is one of three uncoupled colts from the Todd Pletcher shed and appears the most talented of that trio to date. Tested and highly competitive in the Grade 3 Kentucky Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs May 3rd, he is fresh with two-race experience and comes up to today’s trip nicely off graduating distances. Regular rider Johnny Velazquez must have recommended blinkers for this colt because they’re on today. He’s trained purposefully for this.
But likely favorite Lantana Mob appears the most probable winner. Another with the benefit of two starts, he graduated at today’s distance last time out at Churchill, a significant advantage this early in the juvenile year. He beat 10 rivals in extremely fast time and trainer Steve Asmussen is 26 percent effective with horses returning off a maiden win. Owner of tactical speed and kick, he attracts Garrett Gomez for his local debut.
Taking Lantana Mob to win, no price restrictions, and exacta boxes with Nordic Wind and Ready’s Image.
Running Totals: (50) 25-10-9 Dollar Return: $147.40 [win selections only, does not reflect Saturday’s results]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, June 30, 2007
Swashbuckling Fairbanks In Suburban Upset
There are two Grade 1s on the docket at Belmont Park this afternoon but we’ll concentrate on the Suburban Handicap at 10 furlongs, second leg of the old NYRA handicap triple crown.
The winner of that first leg, the Metropolitan Handicap, was Corinthian, the 8-5 early line favorite to repeat his effort of five weeks ago. He is a worthy and deserving choice.
In winning the Met Mile, he showed much improved early speed, a new pace top, and held off all challengers in deep stretch. In addition to the pace top, his best performance figures have come at longer distances, nine and nine and-a-half furlongs, his best. He has 12-furlong pedigree in his first two generations.
However, we’re taking the Todd Pletcher trained Fairbanks, second choice at 5-2. By definition the fastest horse on performance figures, his best races have all come at nine furlongs, he gets a three-pound pull in the weights, and has a history of racing well when fresh. He, too, should handle 10 furlongs.
We’re sure that Richard Migliore, who rode him to victory at Santa Anita last time out, can remember his way around ‘big sandy.’
Taking Fairbanks to win at 2-1 or more and an exacta box with Corinthian.
Running Totals: (50) 25-10-9 Dollar Return: $147.40 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, June 29, 2007
European and Hollywood Shippers Rumble in New York
Today’s feature at Belmont Park is a “non-winners of 3 other than/optional claiming $75,000 for 4-year-olds and up” at a mile on the Widener turf course. There are as many questions as entrants in this eight-furlong puzzle.
But wouldn’t you know it? The most probable winners are the two early line choices: the Saeed bin Suroor entry of Mathematician and Palace Episode at 3-1 and the early line favorite Giant Basil, at 9-5.
Each half of the entry has merit. Mathematician raced as if needing his recent return from a long layup. It came sprinting in a restricted stakes. Today’s class drop, coupled with a stretch to a more suitable distance, the pole position and Garrett Gomez are compelling reasons to expect improvement. Bin Suroor is 2-for-5 with his U.S. stretchouts, with two others landing a share.
Palace Episode was a Group 1 winner in Europe at 2 but raced only once last season and now makes his 4-year-old debut. Obviously he must have issues. But know that the barn is 38 percent effective with horses returning from long layoffs and 39 percent with shippers to the states. First time Lasix can’t hurt.
Giant Basil, however, is the deserving choice. He ran to his late pedigree when earning a superior performance figure in his first start for Bobby Frankel, and was wisely given 58 days recovery time. By definition he’s the fastest horse, attracts turf ace Edgar Prado, and has been working great locally since that big Hollywood effort, particularly his last half-mile breeze. By Giant’s Causeway, out of the multiple stakes winning turf mare Verbasle, this colt could be anything.
Taking Giant Basil to win at 3-2 or greater, and an exacta box with either or both members of the bin Suroor entry.
Running Totals: (49) 25-9-9 Dollar Return: $147.40 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci