Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Err on the Side of Value in Contentious Paumonok
Lots of gas in today’s featured Paumonok, featuring hard-hitting older sprinters going three-quarters on the winter track. It appears we have two choices in today’s six-horse matchup: The top and the bottom, as the racetrackers say.
Ravalo (5-1) breaks from the pole position and is quite remarkable really. He’s won 10 of 21 lifetime starts--off the board only four times--two of those victories coming on today’s surface, where he reunites with Mike Luzzi, aboard the winning Ravalo at the last winter meet here.
He has a high turn of early speed but can sit and pounce if necessary, which is the most likely scenario here. His last was an excellent top figure score at Laurel, where he’s worked well subsequently for this, and ships into the barn of Cleveland Johnson, a Rick Dutrow associate. His early line odds seem out of line given his accomplishments.
The main danger comes from Accredit, on a recent tear and a winner over this surface last out. Accredit hails from the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin, who is showing a profit from all sprint starters in his career--quite an achievement.
McLaughlin reaches out for Rajiv Maragh, a hot pairing of late, is nicely drawn outside with tactical speed and kick and, as a four-year-old, still has some upside potential for added development. Given today’s race dynamics, the break might mean everything here. We’ll count on Mr. Luzzi to make the most of his opportunity.
Taking Ravalo to win at 4-1 or greater, boxing him in the exacta with Accredit and True Quality (2-1), who's coming off a New Pace Top Equiform pattern..
Running Totals: (349) 106-71-46 Total Dollar Return: $749.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, January 23, 2009
Don’t Forget About Numaany
Today’s feature is quite similar to yesterday’s; a two-turner at a mile and 70 yards but we’ll kick it up a notch to secondary allowances, optional claiming $50,000. There’s no shortage of speed, ability nor high profile connections in this spot. While the presence of all that gas will suit early line favorite Helsinki (2-1), it always worth trying to beat this deep closer.
The speed of the speed looks like Take The Bluff (6-1), reuniting with winning rider two back; Mike Luzzi. The Violette trainee is coming off a New Pace Top, always a favorable angle for horses with competitive final figures. But his outside post with its short run to the first turn doesn’t help.
Helsinki is consistently a top figure runner in this field but he needs to get a favorable trip to be at his most effective. He’ll be running late for sure, but it’s his style and relatively short rest (3 weeks) that’s the concern. Every so often, Run With A Lark (10-1) throws in a bad one and he’s nicely drawn, but is today the day? It might pay to find out at anything near early line odds.
And what about Quip (9-2), a winner over this surface last year, with an effective kick and tactical speed, a fresh runner who picks up the position conscious strong finisher Richard Migliore. The Mig does well for Kiaran McLaughlin, especially this time of year, and the barn is very adept with fresh runners. He could easily prove the key here.
But we’ll try to get the money with Numaany (6-1). A little too close to the pace last out and wide, it was the kind of trip which usually is detrimental to his kind. But he, too, is coming off a NPT, has worked purposefully since, is drawn toward the inside and might be in the best spot to take advantage of prevailing conditions. Who could argue to Ramon Dominguez on the re-ride for Tom Albertrani?
Taking Numaany to win at 9-2 or greater, boxing him in the exacta with Quip, and keying him first and second in trifectas with all other rivals named here. If it breaks the best way…
Running Totals: (348) 106-71-46 Total Dollar Return: $749.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Pitched Perfectly Hits the Right Note
The first New York feature of this historic American week is a preliminary allowance, optional claiming $75,000 for three-year-old colts going a mile and 70 yards. A tricky read, we’ll concentrate on Land Grant (5-2), Cliffy’s Future (3-1) and Pitched Perfectly (4-1).
Land Grant has a good pattern, coming off a Reverse Equiform pattern, jumping up big time in his first start around two turns and over the Aqueduct winter surface. The spacing is good, connections strong, but at early line odds as favorite is not an attractive play. Of course it could win easily.
Cliffy’s Future, meanwhile, is expected to show improvement in his first start for Bruce Levine, who’s adding blinkers to the equipment this afternoon. Improving incrementally and with good spacing, he is a strong challenger to the early line favorite, especially with Ramon Dominguez in the boot.
But Pitched Perfectly is the likeliest of the three to fall between the wagering cracks. His regression last time can be attributed to two factors; he was coming off a double top (pace and final figures) and was moving from maiden to stakes competition.
He has versatile running style, a rail position and switches to Rajiv Maragh. Thus far, his two-back figure makes him the fastest member of the group. Enough pluses to make the winning difference in a competitive route.
Taking Pitched Perfectly to win at 7-2 or greater, and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas.
Running Totals: (347) 105-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $742.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci