Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Something Good to Eat?

An interesting feature, today’s eighth at Belmont, a “non-winners of 3 allowances/optional claimer for older horses going a mile and a sixteenth on the Belmont inner turf, providing a fine chance for value.

Baletti (5-2), given the class drop from graded company and a return to the course over which he’s won three races, makes him a worthy early line favorite. But we’ll take any value offered on Lemon Crème Pie (9-2).

We understand that Jimmy Jerkens has disappointing stats with his turf runners. But he’s a profitable 25 percent efficient with returnees of 90 days and longer and his charge breezed very sharply on Monday, a half mile in :48 termed breezing that was 2nd fastest of 60 that week at the distance.

Further, with two speed types likely to keep each other entertained early, the 5 year old gelding’s stalking style and inner position on this course at today’s distance is a tactical advantage.

Taking Lemon Crème Pie to win at 7-2 or greater and key-boxing him first and second in multiples with Baletti, the sharp Pleasant Strike (3-1), and No Inflation (8-1), from the white hot Proctor shed.

Running Totals: (732) 239-153-97 Total Dollar Return: $1,649.20 [win selections only] {Thursday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, September 23, 2010

They Love Her in Boston

Today’s Friendly Beauty Stakes for state-bred 2 year old fillies is an interesting one featuring youngsters at various stages of their development. Yawkey Way (5-2) is a deserving early line favorite and most probable winner.

She earned a significantly faster figure than any in the group winning her last and overcame much early trouble to do so, but here’s the issue. Her trainer, Chad Brown, clearly a rising star, had the meet of his young career at Saratoga but his stock has been paying the price since.

Through Tuesday, Brown’s horses are 0-for-11 at this meet, albeit with four money finishes, but this filly might be a different story. She showed class and usable gears winning her second start and given her workline since, she rates to remain undefeated in start number three. Brown wisely is not looking for bigger fish at this point but is keeping her with her sorority sisters.

Taking Yawkey Way to win at 7-5 or greater and keying her in multiples with Ginger Snapit (3-1) who showed marked improvement in her second outing, new pace top Queen’s Harbor (10-1), who stayed gamely for third behind the choice despite racing wide in her Spa finale, and Saltamontes (4-1), who broke her maiden with authority, earning a competitive figure, and has had six weeks recovery time from that effort.

Running Totals: (732) 239-153-97 Total Dollar Return: $1,649.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Ho Hum Mile Feature at Belmont

Because of the six horse field, today’s Belmont Park feature will go as the third race, and clearly it’s good to be the king. Or the sheikh.

It’s not often that "non-winners of 3" races go, but if you write it as optional claimer you can usually scare up five rivals for the horse that wants a particular spot.

And clearly you’d have to think that the connections of Tahitian Warrior (1-2) would like to see him go a mile, although why not in stakes company yet is beyond me.

In four lifetime starts, the only loss this colt has suffered is to Trappe Shot, who raced very competitively in top class this summer.

It’s not so much that this horse earns superior figures in a completely different league than his rivals, but he won both recent 7-furlong starts from the pole position--a disadvantage that only the best horses can overcome--and did so in completely dominating fashion virtually without urging under supremely confident handling.

The only way to wager here is to make a straight one-way exacta. If you must, Tahitian Warrior to win, no price restrictions, and a cold exacta with Birdrun (7-2), who turns back to his best distance on his favorite surface after a six-week freshening. Fair odds for this exacta combination is 2-1.

Running Totals: (730) 239-152-97 Total Dollar Return: $1,649.20 [win selections only] {Tuesday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


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