Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Peace Be With You
Today’s featured allowance turf sprint at 7 furlongs for three year olds and up is a real skull buster. Four or five are fast enough to win, but only half of those fit the race shape, figuring to be used up in the pace.
Two horses seem best able to handle the race shape/speed scenario: Close To The Vest (5-1) and Peace Wine (9-2).
Close To The Vest has the best blend of speed to stamina, among the fastest in the field and able to sustain that speed a long way. The problem, however, is that his front-end habit is likely to get in in deep here as there is lots of other early speed signed on. Couple that with an interest post, demanding that Jorge Chavez breaks alertly, could put him under the gun throughout even with a clean break.
Peace Wine is a recent maiden breaker and therefore not as accomplished as most of these. But the barn couldn’t be any hotter, they have plenty of success with turn-backs, his style suits the shape here nicely and as a three year old still has plenty of upside. Look for Coa to save ground from close range until turning for home.
Taking Peace Wine to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with Close To The Vest, using also Wall Street Wonder (7-2) and Fateh Field (4-1) in the super exotic mixes.
Running Totals: (504) 150-104-70 Total Dollar Return: $1,020.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Honk If You Like Donk
Interesting feature to win the Belmont week, a non-winners of two-other-than optional claiming for state-bred fillies and mares 3 & up going a mile and a sixteenth on the Elmont lawn.
For us, it comes down to the three year olds, Paraiba (4-1) and Speed Dating (6-1).
Paraiba’s performance figures are among the fastest in this contest and her age makes her eligible for continued development. She owns a fine stretch kick and has some tactical speed when you want it. Nicely drawn toward the inside, a switch to Julien Leparoux could insure a smooth, late-running journey. She fits the race shape properly here.
Speed Dating, meanwhile, is not as quick but has competitive figures, upside, and goes first time for the Hushion barn, an outfit coming off a sensational Saratoga meet and has excellent stats in all relevant categories including a highly profitable and efficient 26 percent strike rate with new acquisitions. His outside draw should play well on the Widener Course.
But taking Paraiba to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with Speed Dating. Exotic players can add Ambidaxtrous (4-1), Higher Incentive (6-1) and Bella Attrice to their trifecta and superfecta mix.
Running Totals: (503) 150-104-69 Total Dollar Return: $1,020.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Clement Aims Winchester at Bowling Green
Today’s Bowling Green Handicap features the return of Grand Couturier (5-2) to Belmont Park, where he won a Grade 1 at this venue last fall. But his effort in the Sword Dancer was subpar on several levels. He’s worth trying to beat.
There are two interesting horses in here; Winchester (5-1) and Colony (5-1). While Colony looks like he’s been specifically pointed to this--Saeed bin Suroor is 31 percent third time off the layup and Rajiv Maragh will ride him back a third time. This outfit had quite a Saratoga.
But Winchester, the G1 Secretariat winner last summer, is making his second start off the layup for new tra1ner Christophe Clement, whose season continued in high style in yesterday’s G1 Garden City.
This guy is coming off a career pace low after which he made up lots of ground under those adverse circumstances. Now back at his favored marathon route with Ramon Dominguez on the re-ride, any semblance of his three year old form and performances figures handle this group.
Taking Winchester to win at 4-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with Colony and Grand Couturier.
Running Totals: (502) 150-103-69 Total Dollar Return: $1,020.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci