Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Nick and Johnny Go for GP Hat Trick
Tired of the small fields in NY, thought the pickings at GP today would be better. They are, not by all that much, but certainly there’s enough quality on hand in South Florida to at least make looking at the PPs interesting.
Today’s feature is sans name, it’s a monied non-winners of three optional claimer going a flat mile featuring three strong contenders; the returning Just A Coincidence (9-5), the sharp Birdrun (2-1), entered Main-Track-Only yesterday and the streaking class climber Caixa Eletronica (4-1).
The three are difficult to separate on performances figures since they’re all virtually the same horse. But it’s gets a little easier considering ‘Caixa’ is winless at the distance and on this track; his best form has been cross town a Calder.
Birdrun is the logical favorite. He’s always run well on this track and at this trip, even if winless under those circumstances, and was a good second over the ground three weeks ago. His best figures have been earned under those conditions.
While Just A Coincidence is the early line favorite, the hunch is the crowd will go for Birdrun since this newly turned four year old hasn’t run since last April, when fourth in the Withers.
But prior to that, it was back to back wins here at the distance and a very worthy third in I Want Revenge’s Wood Memorial. We’re hoping the layoff will be worth a couple of ticks on the tote. Nicely drawn in post 4, race riding Johnny V. can play this one off the break. This team is 2-for-4 at the present meet.
Taking Just A Coincidence to win at 8-5 or greater, keying him first and second in the multiples with his two rivals here.
Running Totals: (580) 181-117-80 Total Dollar Return: $1,246.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Condition Over Class
Today’s feature can be called storied because it has a significant history. Then it used to be worth more than $65,000 and, if memory serves, was once graded. It’s only significance today is that it marks the return of a very nice sprinter, the five year old gelding Driven By Success (1-1).
He is, by definition, the fastest horse, and he’s earned his best performance figures on this surface. He’s been working very well and, since he’s been competitive in graded company, this should easily be do-able. But the message is getting old.
Instead, we will opt for the much improved early season four year old, Wall Street Wonder (4-1). His last race, his first for trainer John Terranova, was his best, and at his tender age has license to keep improving.
He has enough gas to stay within hailing distance of the likely pace-setting favorite and could out kick that rival on conditioning alone. Or not.
Taking Wall Street Wonder to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with Driven By Success.
Running Totals: (579) 180-117-80 Total Dollar Return: $1,239.40 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, January 22, 2010
When Handicapping, Every Little Thing Counts
As I was saying with my new best friend Pony, these races are uninspiring. Today’s feature, the third race, given the purse value, gives uninspiring a bad name.
A five horse race, a preliminary allowances for three-year-old fillies, which you’d think might fill relatively well, boasts a 1-2 ML choice that, on performance figures, justifies that estimate, and with precious few alternatives.
Offlee Cool responded to the addition of blinkers, switch to winter track and stretch to two turns with a wet-track score that was considerably faster than her rivals.
With the exception of Doris D., coming out of sprints for a good stretch-out barn, it appears Dominguez will control the pace with the Dutrow-trained favorite.
While she’s slower, we like the development pattern shown by the Pletcher trainee, Every Little Thing (4-1), won her debut on the winter track. The margin was substantial, but the race was pokey and competition inferior maiden claimers.
But her spacing is better, she has two-turn style, given her late-pace figures, and retains David Cohen.
We’ll take Every Little Thing to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with the favorite.
Running Totals: (578) 180-116-80 Total Dollar Return: $1,239.40 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci