Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Full Play on Half Metal Jacket

Today’s allowance feature on the Aqueduct main track, a secondary allowances-optional claimer going a flat mile has attracted a competitive and fairly talented group.

Wish I know what to do with early favorite The Roundhouse. His recent inner track sprint win was excellent but coming back in five days is very un-Pletcher and while we’re talking best and fastest recent form here, the 3-1 early favorite is not really at his best going this far on this surface. The percentage move is to bet against.

The logical play, given the race-shape conditions, is Half Metal Jacket (9-2). Two-for-two over this surface and also twice a winner at 8 furlongs, he finished ahead of The Roundhouse last out, has the conditioning off a recent route effort, has tactical speed and kick and switches to David Cohen, a 31 percent profitable player for this barn.

Taking Half Metal Jacket to win at 7-2 or greater, and keying him first and second in multiple pools with The Roundhouse, Chris Got Even (8-1), third off the layup for Zito, and Broadway Producer (10-1) who suits the conditions well and returns with the right spacing for Terranova.

Running Totals: (621) 192-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,339.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Nina Springs Eternal

Today’s feature on the Gulfstream turf course features a favorite that’s worth trying to beat. While America’s Dreaming does reunite with winning partner Alan Garcia and is making his second start off a layup, his performances figures do not really justify 5-2 favoritism.

The two interesting fillies in here are Loxy Lady (4-1), returning to her best distance, and Nina Springs (6-1), who ships south for Jane Cibelli.

Loxy Lady not only returns to a distance that has produced two of her three lifetime victories but is reunited with Jose Lezcano, aboard for her mile victory at Saratoga and hails from a barn (Mark Henning’s) that 21 percent efficient with third-off-layup runners.

But Nina Springs is a bit more compelling. As a newly turned 4-year-old, she still has some upside development, comes from a key race Tampa route producing two next out winners, and likely will find this course more suited to her speed-stalking style.

Elvis Trujillo is 1-for-1 on this miss and Ms. Cibelli shows a profit with her ship-in starters. The turnback to one mile (2) 1-1-0 suits well, as does her 6-1 early odds line.

Taking Nina Springs to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with Loxy Lady, and adding America’s Dreaming to the trifecta mix.

Running Totals: (620) 191-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,323.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, March 27, 2010

Drosselmeyer Gets Even

Drosselmeyer's chances explained in more detail on HRI lead page

Taking Drosselmeyer (5-1) to win at 7-2 or greater and key boxing him first and second in the multiple pools with late developing Mission Impazible (8-1), A Little Warm (4-1), the fastest horse by defintion, and late running Ron the Greek (6-1). Superfecta players can add longshot Stay Put (10-1) to their mix.

Running Totals: (618) 191-125-87 Total Dollar Return: $1,323.30 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


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