Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Florida Derby: More Questions than Answers

There are only two questions that really matter concerning today’s Grade 1 Florida Derby. The first is whether Dunkirk (9-5) is up to the hype and is all Todd Pletcher believes him to be. The second is if Quality Road (2-1) is as good around two turns as he is around one.

Actually, there is a third: Is Theregoesjojo (5-1) a stretch running sprinter/miler or can he sustain his electric kick around two turns.

Unlike his two main rivals, Dunkirk is proven at the distance. He’s also slower on performances figures than both of them.

It’s unlikely that Todd Pletcher tightened the screws for his preliminary allowance win. But now that his colt needs graded earnings, Dunkirk is virtually in a must-win situation. Still, as the favorite, he’s a poor bet.

If Quality Road runs back to his Fountain of Youth effort, he is the most probable winner. Admittedly, that’s a sizable if. We’ll go on record with Quality Road.

I’m looking to play exotics. I’m making a three horse trifecta box of the Florida Derby big three. Then I’m keying Theregoesjojo first and second in exactas with the other two, an extra ticket with ‘Jojo’ second.

Running Totals: (391) 120-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $829.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, March 27, 2009

Bonnie Miss Field Notjustwhistlindixie

The three-year-old ladies take center stage in today’s Gulfstream Park feature, the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss at 9 furlongs. It features the surprising future book favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, Justwhistledixie (7-5).

Rather remarkably, this filly has had six lifetime starts and, on the Equiform scale, every race is better than the next. Of greater significance is in her last, the Forward Gal, she showed a new dimension by distributing her energy more efficiently. She returns on relatively short rest but has handled everything thrown at her thus far. She’s the most probable winner.

Gatorette (2-1) actually owns the highest figure and is undefeated in two starts. Never having raced farther than 7 furlongs, she’s bred to handle added distance. But this is a tough assignment considering she spots a significant amount of experience to the favorite. But talent can trump anything and she’s the X-factor here.

Casanova Move (3-1) is developing properly, showing incremental improvement, and her pedigree suits today’s route better than her main rivals. Foremost in her corner is that her off the pace style suit’s the scenario here, with the two faster fillies conceivably setting the race up for her late run. This race is a trap; lots of talent, small field.

Compelled to take the favorite to win, no price restrictions, and keying her first in exactas and trifectas with her two main rivals.

Running Totals: (390) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, March 26, 2009

Plenty of Pesos With this Shipper

Toda’s feature at Gulfstream is a preliminary allowances that has drawn a few interesting three-year-olds going a flat mile. The main contenders are Phantom Rising (5-2), Uno Peso (10-1) and Run All Day (4-1).

Phantom Rising won his debut at 7 furlongs, usually a sing of inherent class, ran fast, and did it the right way. Bill Mott is en fuego, and he’s given this guy more than sufficient recovery time for his return. He could wind up the best of these good looking colts.

Uno Peso is the most interesting. He earned the fastest figure, and at a flat mile, over a wet Churchill track as a two-year-old. After a game second in his well meant season’s debut, he was run off his feet by faster in the Suncoast, both recent starts over the quirky Tampa surface. Now he’s back at a flat mile making his third start off the layup and reunites with maiden breaking partner, Julien Leparoux.

Run All Day is the house horse: a Stronach owned, Brian Lynch trained sophomore that looked good winning its last under today’s conditions, earning a competitive figure and distributing his energy more efficiently. He could easily repeat.

But we’ll throw deep with Uno Peso to win at 6-1 or greater and key him in exactas and trifectas with his main rivals here.

Running Totals: (389) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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