Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, December 07, 2007
Frisk Her to Raise Heck in Big A Feature
Another winter track overnight stakes, another sprint for some rapid fillies, three-year-old girls going six furlongs in the Raise Heck.
Like yesterday’s offering for juvenile fillies, this one is long on talented early speed, shorter on equally talented late kick. The major contenders are Dicey Girl, Frisk Her and Your Flame In Me.
Dicey Girl is very likely to sit a good trip here. She owns tactical speed, an inside draw, showed in her last race that she can overcome trouble and still kick clear late. She is by definition the second fastest filly in the group and hails from top Delaware Valley connections with Jeremy Rose riding for Steve Klesaris. Tested in stakes company, she finally might be ready to break through.
Frisk Her is making her second start off a lengthy layoff for Gary Contessa. She was second to today’s rival Your Flame In Me on that occasion but owns some variables that should bring the two much closer together. First, there is more speed signed on today and that should keep her speedy rival occupied in the early running. Further, she’ll be making her first start for Contessa here, a profitable 19 percent given that scenario, is in receipt of a significant five pounds and Joe Bravo has ridden her in the past. On paper, she looks to have the best late kick in the group.
Your Flame In Me owns consistently faster performance figures than any of her rivals, hails from the Michael Trombetta barn that is 4-for-10 at this meet and three of his last five starters and using Jose Caraballo, the only rider this filly has had while winning four of five lifetime starts. Trombetta is profitably adept at spotting his runners in these overnight stakes and saddles a filly that never has been outrun in the early stages of a race. But she’s meeting quality speed types today and breaks from the outside post with the other speeds obviously drawn inside of her. She must prove the speed of the speed again, withstand better late runners, all while picking up five pounds at 123 as the likely post time favorite.
Taking likely value Frisk Her to win at 3-1 or more and keying her first and second in exactas and trifecta with her two main rivals.
Running Totals: (143) 52-30-16. Total Dollar Return: $304.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Lots of Extra Speed in this Heat
Today’s feature is an absolute beauty, the Xtra Heat Stakes for two-year-old fillies going six furlongs. Competitive? Seven of the eight fillies entered are coming off a win, several of them in stakes. We’ll concentrate on the two early line favorites: Dill Or No Dill (5-2) and Throbbin’ Heart (3-1).
The only filly coming off a loss in her last race is Dill Or No Dill, but with good reason. The pace she set was suicidal, the company too tough (Indian Blessing’s Grade 1 Frizette), and the one mile distance probably beyond her scope--at least at this stage. But she was a stakes winner sprinting in the Midwest previously and joined the Contessa barn shortly following that win. The speed of the speed, she's working well for her return and is nicely drawn. She attracts speed maven C. C. Lopez.
Throbbin’ Heart has been a gem of consistency on performance figures and has been tested for class despite only having broken her maiden last time out, her third lifetime start. She finished second with a game late-run placing behind protem champion Indian Blessing. Following another game placing behind the promising Elusive Lady, she broke her maiden while showing speed but still kicking home nicely to get the job done. Such balance is often emblematic of top class; we shall see.
Taking Throbbin’ Heart to win at 2-1 or greater and an exacta box with Dill Or No Dill. Also, we'll key her first and second in trifectas with 'Dill,' conditions-suiting D J Lightning (5-1), and top-figure earning Porte Bonheur (9-2).
Running Totals: (142) 51-30-16. Total Dollar Return: $297.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Banking on Ramon to Steal Big A Feature
Today’s feature is a secondary allowances, $50,000 optional claiming at a mile and 70 yards that figures to be a good, competitive race if all go postward. The race will come down to three outfits who will saddle the early favorites, but the competitive nature should ensure bettable odds for any or all of them.
The white hot Anthony Dutrow, 4 for his last 11 starters, 3 for his last five with Alan Garcia, will send out an entry (3-1) with Garcia named on both, meaning only one will start. And either Indian Hawke or Three In The Bag could win. The former would represent a bounce-rebound since his rapid effort two starts back took its toll. It is among the fastest performance figures in the race. If Dutrow elects to start Three In The Bag, that runner would be seeking its fourth win in seven career starts over the winter surface.
Perfect Vow is the early line favorite at 5-2. Trained by Dan Peitz, this is a very well regarded three-year-old who was expected to join the Triple Crown chase earlier this year until he was sidelined. But he returned with a vengeance on Nov. 2 in a main track sprint. But he has run well going longer on this surface and has twice worked in 59-and-change twice since his return. Peitz has chosen a realistic spot here for continued development. Of the three betting interests under consideration, he would be the most likely to be a post-time underlay.
Stolen Time (7-2) is as consistent as they come, which is the good and bad news. He runs competitive figures nearly every time he shows up. But sometimes he gets there and sometimes does not. He likes this surface, though, has enough tactical speed to jump into the race, an inside post, and a rider, Ramon Dominguez, who is known for his ground saving prowess. Of the three, he is the most likely value in this interesting two-turner.
Taking Stolen Time to win at 3-1 or greater and as an exacta and trifecta key first and second with the two contenders noted here.
Running Totals: (141) 51-30-16. Total Dollar Return: $297.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci