Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Bogey at Four O’Clock

With Inca King coming back to the races quickly and Fluke likely to be an overbet favorite, we’ll look at two promising alternatives in today’s eighth race turf feature at Belmont Park: Yield Bogey (6-1) and Radical Sabbatical (4-1).

The latter, half of the very solid Barclay Tagg entry, has been unlucky in recent starts, one of which he won. But that win came on this course--over which he’s won half his four lifetime starts while 1-for-10 anywhere else--and returns to Belmont with a very purposeful workline and picks up Alan Garcia, back riding in his very best form.

His outside draw and tactical speed on the Widener Course at this distance suits him well.

Yield Bogey is interesting and he’s very likely to fall between the parimutuel cracks. After overcoming much trouble in a 7-furlong sprint on this course at the summer meet, he was tried in a pair of graded stakes to no avail, although was third in the G3 Poker on this course.

He handles any footing and his last pacesetting effort at Saratoga should set him up nicely for his return to Elmont for Pat Kelly and Jean-Luc Samyn.

Taking Yield Bogey to win at 6-1 or greater, boxing him in the exacta with the Tagg entry headed by Radical Sabbatical. Trifecta players can add the aforementioned Inca King, Fluke and the Mott-trained Broad River (8-1) to the mix.

Running Totals: (504) 150-104-70 Total Dollar Return: $1,020.10 [win selections only] {Thursday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, September 17, 2009

Peace Be With You

Today’s featured allowance turf sprint at 7 furlongs for three year olds and up is a real skull buster. Four or five are fast enough to win, but only half of those fit the race shape, figuring to be used up in the pace.

Two horses seem best able to handle the race shape/speed scenario: Close To The Vest (5-1) and Peace Wine (9-2).

Close To The Vest has the best blend of speed to stamina, among the fastest in the field and able to sustain that speed a long way. The problem, however, is that his front-end habit is likely to get in in deep here as there is lots of other early speed signed on. Couple that with an interest post, demanding that Jorge Chavez breaks alertly, could put him under the gun throughout even with a clean break.

Peace Wine is a recent maiden breaker and therefore not as accomplished as most of these. But the barn couldn’t be any hotter, they have plenty of success with turn-backs, his style suits the shape here nicely and as a three year old still has plenty of upside. Look for Coa to save ground from close range until turning for home.

Taking Peace Wine to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with Close To The Vest, using also Wall Street Wonder (7-2) and Fateh Field (4-1) in the super exotic mixes.

Running Totals: (504) 150-104-70 Total Dollar Return: $1,020.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Honk If You Like Donk

Interesting feature to win the Belmont week, a non-winners of two-other-than optional claiming for state-bred fillies and mares 3 & up going a mile and a sixteenth on the Elmont lawn.

For us, it comes down to the three year olds, Paraiba (4-1) and Speed Dating (6-1).

Paraiba’s performance figures are among the fastest in this contest and her age makes her eligible for continued development. She owns a fine stretch kick and has some tactical speed when you want it. Nicely drawn toward the inside, a switch to Julien Leparoux could insure a smooth, late-running journey. She fits the race shape properly here.

Speed Dating, meanwhile, is not as quick but has competitive figures, upside, and goes first time for the Hushion barn, an outfit coming off a sensational Saratoga meet and has excellent stats in all relevant categories including a highly profitable and efficient 26 percent strike rate with new acquisitions. His outside draw should play well on the Widener Course.

But taking Paraiba to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with Speed Dating. Exotic players can add Ambidaxtrous (4-1), Higher Incentive (6-1) and Bella Attrice to their trifecta and superfecta mix.

Running Totals: (503) 150-104-69 Total Dollar Return: $1,020.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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