Friday, May 18, 2012
Bode the Most Probable Winner, But…
It's hard to have anything brilliant to say here. The storylines, and the handicapping variables, are intertwined, and the problem is that the favorites, the perceived best horses, are just that on paper. THose who believe Bodemeister will win are betting as much on trainer Bob Baffert as they are the horse.
I'll Have Another has done nothing wrong, is more likely to run his Derby race back than not, and Johnny V. believes that he was on the best horse in Louisville. But his Derby day, as it turns out. did not go all that well.
But the interesting horses in here, the ones we're hoping to make money with, more as money factors than anything else, are Creative Cause and Daddy Nose Best. To bet either straight, I need close to 8-1 on the former, and close to 15-1 on the latter. If I get those odds, I'll make token win bets then try to optimize, using those two with the three logical favorites above in all exotic pools.
Since we select the feature race every day, and have done so for five years, we'll go on record that Bodemeister will win Preakness 137, though we don't believe that's the way to bet. Nevertheless, he will be the win selection we will use in our daily tabulations. Happy Preakness, one and all!
Running Totals: (1080) 332-210-161 Total Dollar Return: $2,285.90 [win selections only]