Sunday, July 01, 2012
Chance for Value in the Bed o’ Roses
The first impulse a handicapper has when he looks at today’s Grade 3 Bed O’ Roses Handicap is to try to beat the 8-5 early line favorite. Coming back relatively soon after a very hard fought G2 victory, it’s reasonable to think that a top effort might not be forthcoming, especially beneath high weight of 122 pounds.
But the race shape falls into her lap as chances are that the super sharp ship-in Catinatree (10-1) will take advantage of her draw and zip to the front, in receipt of nine pounds from the favorite.
Drawn right alongside in post 7, Junior Alvarado should enjoy a stalking trip on a 5-year-old mare that’s never been beaten on this surface. However, it doesn’t make sense to take a short price, likely somewhere around even money, for a mare coming off a significant lifetime best performance figure.
The filly in the best spot to make an aggressive inside-out turn move is Derwin’s Star (3-1) since, despite the class rise, she owns enough tactical speed, gets eight pounds from the choice, is 2-for-3 at the trip and attracts Ramon Dominguez. She has the back figures to compete and her spacing seems ideal. Further, she blew out sharply at her Parx base for this.
We’ll take Derwin’s Star to win, at a minimum of 3-1, box her in the exacta with the favorite, and add price shot Catinatree to the exotic mix.
Running Totals: (1107) 340-214-167 Total Dollar Return: $2,342.90 [win selections only]