Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.



Saturday, October 07, 2017


Strolling Down the Aveenu


Lots of features on the JCGC card, but we're going for a little gusto in the highly competitive and wide open Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. In fact, here's a look at all the contenders we considered that went to our subscribers, as it appeared in this week's edition of Tote Buster's Late Pick 4 at http://www.JohnPricci.com:


RACE 8: Grade 1 CHAMPAGNE 2YO 1 MILE


1 – ***KOWBOY KARMA (12-1) Pricci Energy Rating: 84
Three races worth of experience, is 2-for-2 at one-turn trips, albeit sprinting, but certainly owns enough bottom side to get a mile. Typical bullet from Jones (best of 15 peers week of 10/2) 28% efficient with his shippers; regular partner Cintron ships along. Second in key race (2/3) at this trip last out, albeit rounding two turns at Monmouth.

6 – ***GOOD MAGIC (7-2) PER: 86
Bet off the board in debut at 3-4 and placed gamely at 6-1/2 furlong trip behind Hazit, a strong contender here. Returned to work bullets for Brown, not his usual M.O., and aggressively spotted with confidence. Million-dollar Curlin colt can improve quickly and prove best but still a tough test despite big forward move in second start.

7 - ***BAHAMIAN (5-1) PER: 85
A maiden but with two-race experience, showing improvement after removing blinkers. Callaghan having career year (profitable at 25%), excels with stretchouts (24% profitable), comes up to added distance nicely with good bottom-side pedigree and has excelled with 2YOs. Work 5th fastest of 121 peers week of 10/1; no Bolt d’Oro here.

8 – ****AVEENU MALCAINU (6-1) PER: 87
NY-bred 2-for-2 lifetime at Spa and comes up to added distance nicely off state-bred Funny Cide score, Jeremiah also having a career year (26%), similar stat with repeaters, Saez re-rides and loan sib also a winner. Good spacing and worked recent bullet over surface. Exits key race (2 next out winners), work fastest of 91 peers week of 09/30.

9 – ***HONORABLE TREASURE (6-1) PER: 91
Won second lifetime start, a 7-furlong off-turfer, in a big way after adding first-Lasix. McPeek handling this one with confidence and careful spacing into this and Davis profitable rider for this outfit. Sharp blowout 4 of 21 peers week of 09/30. Has distance experience, albeit at two turn on turf. Could fall between parimutuel cracks; intriguing.

11 - ***HAZIT (4-1) PER: 86
Beat well regarded Good Magic in 6-1/2F Spa debut, showing class while holding off that rival gamely in deep stretch after breaking from pole. Well connected War Front colt was $430K yearling, benefits from shift outside and may have bright future for Pletcher barn that’s 28% profitable first-time going long. Johnny takes the re-ride.

12 – ***FIRENZE FIRE (10-1) PER: 86
Another benefitting from 3-race experience, rallied wide entering Hopeful straight after taking Sanford I prior. Jason Servis yet another having career season, 29% profitable, and is 7-for-21 according to latest BRIS info stretching out after two sprints. Also shifts outside for first time and excellent value at early line odds. ML value.

There's only one ****star choice as stated above. Taking AVEENU MALCAINU to win and place at 4-1 or greater.

*****

Number of Selections since 2007: 2377

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 706-476

Amount Wagered: $4,754 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $4,809.60

Exacta Finishes All Selections since 2007: .497%

Profit to Date: $55.60

Written by John Pricci



 
 

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