Friday, October 18, 2013
Value Too Tempting to Ignore in Belmont Feature
Today's Belmont feature going as the third race is a preliminary allowances/optional claimer going 9 furlongs on the inner turf and on paper it appears a two-horse affair between Mister Pippit (5-2), the strong half of the Michael Dubb entry, and the recent maiden graduate Mr. Jenney (8-1). It's more than just the odds differential that we prefer the latter.
Of course, the Brown runner has an inside draw, a nice turn of foot, and Javier Castellano with a series of recent purposeful works. The gelded 5YO has won five of his starts and gets in this because of the claiming tag, the same one he wore when victorious at the level two back. But we prefer 'Jenney's' upside.
A lightly raced 3YO with five starts, he's come to hand this fall for Christophe Clement. He owns a win and placing over the course, including a recent maiden win (Pippit is 0-for-5), has competitive performance figures, a good race at the distance (Pippit has not raced 9 furlongs) and Clement is a profitable 27% efficient with returning maiden winners next out.
Excellent value at early line odds, taking Mr. Jenney to win at 9-2 or greater and an exacta box with his rival here.
Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1409
Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 429-267-213
Amount Wagered: $2,818 [to win only]
Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,919.00
Profit to Date: $101.00