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Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Saturday, November 09, 2013


Class on the Grass


Today's Big A feature is the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap for fillies and mares going a mile and a half on the grass and it's a beauty in which a case can be made for six of the eight entrants. Having said that, the class relief that early line favorite Anjaz (5-2) is getting is impossible to ignore.

That and the fact Tom Albertrani has gotten off quickly at this meet and that his filly has done her best racing at today's marathon trip. A switch to Javier Castellano won't hurt.

Taking Anjaz to win, no price restrictions, an exacta box with the wide-tripping White Rose (10-1) in last and adding Strathnaver (3-1) and Aigue Marine (4-1) to the exotics mix.


Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1421

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 432-270-215

Amount Wagered: $2,842 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,9240.60

Profit to Date: $98.60

A Review of our "Breeders' Cup SCORECARD" for each day in their entirety below:

SANTA ANITA PARK NOVEMBER 2, 2013

True Value horses are automatic plays at anything approximating fair odds. The hope is that closing odds will approximate the morning line quote.

Worthy Favorite horses are those we believe will be--or should be—the public’s choice(s). When more than one horse is indicated in any category, they are listed in graded order.

All Exotic Tote-Busters are primarily meant to fill out exotic and super-exotic wagers. But if closing odds appear well above the morning line, a smaller win wager may be in order.

Carefully manage your bankroll before crafting tickets. Please check all program numbers before wagering.

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BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES 1-1/16 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 8-SCANDALOUS ACT (8-1), 10-SHE’S A TIGER (6-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 1-ARTEMIS ARGROTERA (3-1), 7-UNTAPABLE (5-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 2-ROSALIND (8-1), 3-RIA ANTONIA (30-1)
PLAYING the PERCENTAGES: Speed horses and pressers are the preferred styles. Recent well-meant winning prep form is paramount; repeaters excel. Seldom are seen inscrutable longshots. This edition has money potential, however.
SKINNY: #8 seen CRC surprises before; #10 post only knock; #1 very classy speedster; #7 passed acid test; #2 CD work, Joel on


BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF 3 & UP 1-1/4 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 2-ROMANTICA (6-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 1-DANK (5-2), 3-TIZ FLIRTATIOUS (7-2)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: NONE
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Routine late-run dynamics of turf racing apply here; only Intercontinental won wire-to-wire. BRIS turf-pedigree data extremely telling. Upsets have been commonplace; not so much this time.
SKINNY: #2 Euros regard highly; #1 The Fugue ducking her? #3 extreme turn of foot


BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT 3 & UP 7 Furlongs

TRUE VALUE: 4-DANCE CARD (8-1), 2-BOOK REVIEW (6-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 11-GROUPIE DOLL (5-2), 8-DANCE TO BRISTOL (5-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 6-ISMENE (20-1), 7-SUMMER APPLAUSE (12-1), 12-SWEET LULU (8-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: It’s somewhat counter-intuitive but closers generally hold sway in this sprint contest, owing to usually strong contested early pace and the 7-furlong trip.
SKINNY: #4 short & vs. bias BEL prep; #2 trip and dynamics aid; #11 loves SA dirt; #8 classy, consistent, vs. bias BEL; #6 Spawr 7-14 turf > dirt; #7 beware the turnback; #12 classy, game speedster


BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT 3 & UP 6-1/2 Furlongs

TRUE VALUE: 5-CORACORTADO (8-1), 14-UNBRIDLED’S NOTE (8-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 3-CHIPS ALL IN (5-1), 12-MIZDIRECTION (4-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 2-ROCK ME BABY (30-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Because of the unusual configuration of downhill, course-altering turf sprints at Santa Anita, distance specialists—especially those with success on this course, is paramount. Preferred running styles are mid-race movers and closers.

SKINNY: #5 back at tops; #14 course specialist; #3 brilliant worker; #12 course
goddess; #2 no chance in last

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE 1-1/16 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 3-MEXIKOMA (12-1), 10-WE MISS ARTIE (8-1), 4-NEW YEAR’S DAY (8-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: #13 HAVANA (5-2)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 1-SMARTY’S ECHO (20-1), 2-DANCE WITH FATE (8-1), 14-STRONG MANDATE (6-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Speedy and tactical youngsters enjoy a natural advantage around two turns, given an overall lack of experience. Winning recent-prep form a shortcut to success in this event.
SKINNY: #3 ready for acid test; 10-training star; 4-another brilliant worker; #13 post a killer; #1 tactical, pole, E.T.; #2 moving forward; #14 gets mulligan, Rosario


BREEDERS’ CUP TURF 3 & UP 1-1/2 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 9-INDY POINT (9-2), 11-MAGICIAN (8-1), 4-LITTLE MIKE
WORTHY FAVORITE: 7-THE FUGUE (3-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 3-TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, 12-REAL SOLUTION (8-1), 10-BIG BLUE KITTEN (6-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: A three-turn race going 12 furlongs requires stamina above all else. Classy speed types can win this but clearly must be a classy individual. Generally, however, there are no easy leads in Southern California.
SKINNY: #9 insiders on-site love; #11 classy Euro 3YO; #4 Little Rodney Dangerfield; #7 OK, now do it; #3 rattling feet a +; #12 very strong worker; #10 best in Turf Classic?


BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT 3 & UP 6 Furlongs

TRUE VALUE: 9-SECRET CIRCLE (4-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 1-JUSTIN PHILLIP (4-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 2-THE LUMBER GUY (12-1), 3-GENTLEMEN’S BET (8-1), 6-BAHAMIAN SQUALL (10-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: As stated, there’s lots of pace pressure on the SA front end, especially when the fastest horses in the country gather in the same gate. Early and tactical speedsters have dominated past Sprints. Recent well-meant prepsters have enjoyed uncommon success.
SKINNY: #9 classy comebacker brilliant a.m.; #1 better as 5YO; #2 will bring ‘A’ game; #3 speedster gets tested; #6 always fires.


BREEDERS’ CUP MILE 3 & UP 1 Mile Turf

TRUE VALUE: 1-NO JET LAG (8-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 8-WISE DAN (even)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 10-ZA APPROVAL (10-1), 4-OBVIOUSLY (10-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Strong Pace + Turf Racing = Winning Closers. Horses need to run fast all out for a mile; high class runners usually dominate.
SKINNY: #1 wise guys aboard; #8 no excuses; #10 uber consistent; #4 rebounding?


BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC 3 & UP 1-1/4 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 6-MUCHO MACHO MAN (5-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 9-GAME ON DUDE (8-5)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 8-PALACE MALICE (10-1), 10-WILL TAKE CHARGE (12-1), 1-LAST GUNFIGHTER (20-1), 12-FLAT OUT (12-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Unlike the Kentucky Derby at the same trip, deep closers have an extremely hard time winning America’s richest race. Horses entering this off a poor effort seldom, if ever, rebound. Speed and pressers are preferred and it takes an exceptional 3-year-old to beat elders in this event.
SKINNY: #6 all grown up; #9 toughest test of year; #8 remarkable developer; #10 better and better; #1 ignore at peril; #12 brings ‘A’ game.


SANTA ANITA PARK FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2013

Morning Line Odds in parenthesis. If betting to win, strive for two odds levels above quoted early odds.
True Value horses are automatic plays at anything approximating fair odds. The hope is that closing odds will approximate the morning line quote.
Worthy Favorite horses are those we believe will be--or should be—the public’s choice(s). When more than one horse is indicated in any category, they are listed in graded order.
All Exotic Tote-Busters are primarily meant to fill out exotic and super-exotic wagers. But if closing odds appear well above the morning line, a smaller win wager may be in order.
Carefully manage your bankroll before crafting tickets. Please check all program numbers before wagering.

* * *

BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON 3 & UP 1-3/4 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 6-INDIAN JONES (5-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 10-WORLDLY (6-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER(S): 5-SUNS OUT GUNS OUT (10-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Inherent class is not nearly as important and stamina in a race where the jockey is much more a pilot than passenger. Premature moves can beat the best horse in this event. Tread very carefully in what generally is a dubious contest: #6 best fits race dynamics; #10 fastest figures; #5 blinkers helped.
THE SKINNY: In general, the Marathon is an inscrutable affair. Tread carefully.


BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF 1 Mile

TRUE VALUE: 4-OUTSTRIP (4-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 5-BOBBY’S KITTEN (5-2), 2-GIOVANNI BOLDINI (7-2)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 12-SHAMSHON (12-1), 9-WILSHIRE BOULEVARD (8-1), 11-POKER PLAYER (12-1), 8-BON ACCORD (20-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Given the propensity of young horses to run off a bit due to lack of experience, and the natural order of all things turf, closers generally hold serve here. Despite strength of today’s favorites, race could be a moneymaker.

SKINNY: #4 insider reports on site; #5 very talented, over-hyped; #2 “lads” like; #12 good mover; #9 uncoupled O’Brien; #11 KY. Horse to Watch; #8 Bourbon key race.


BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE 3 & UP 1 Mile

TRUE VALUE: 5-FED BIZ (6-1), 4-BRUJO DE OILEROS (8-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 12-GOLDENCENTS (4-1), 11-PANTS ON FIRE (6-1)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 2-GOLDEN TICKET (12-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Even IF dirt miles are contested around two turns at SA, there’s little time for conventional rating tactics, making wire scores very difficult. Positive form reversals more common in this race than almost any other BC event.
SKINNY: #5 style, strong works; #4 peaking now; #12 “fastest,’ SA lover; #11 extremely honest; #2 short horse Awesome Again.


BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF 1 Mile

TRUE VALUE: 8-CHRISELLIAM (6-1)
WORTHY FAVORITE: 6-VORDA (4-1), #14 MY CONQUESTADORY (9-2)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 12-TESTA ROSSI (8-1), 13-SKY PAINTER (15-1), 10-CLENOR (8-1), 4-KITTEN KABOODLE (20-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: It is generally accepted that young fillies develop sooner than colts. With a grassy surface, it’s easy to understand that late runners have a natural advantage. Classy turf pedigree lends strength to the individual surface.
SKINNY: #8 very professional; #6 esteemed Euro; #14 bad post, scratch contemplated; #12 replay star; #13 ditto; #10 preferred local; #4 price, position, Johnny.


BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF F & M 3 & UP 1-1/8 Miles

TRUE VALUE: NONE
WORTHY FAVORITE: 4-ROYAL DELTA (8-5), 5-BEHOLDER (5-2), 6-PRINCESS OF SYLMAR (9-5)
EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 1-STREET GIRL (30-1)
PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: The history of this event is cut and dry: Class, speed and favorites dominate. In Distaff 30, how the speed shakes out among major contenders will determine the outcome. Need not bet to enjoy Distaff 30.
SKINNY: #4 older champion pacesetter; #5 extremely ready; #6 perfect-trip potential; #1 potential score-maker better than rated.

Written by John Pricci

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