Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Thursday, December 04, 2014


He’ll Win from Here to Saratoga


Lots of mixed signals in today's Big A feature, a conditioned allowances for state-breds 3 & up. We have two prominent turf-to-dirt entrants, one making its winter track debut and other seasoned vets in various states of form.

As open as this is, we'll go for the gusto with Gridley Here (8-1). As a 3YO, he has upside and has been racing in career form recently. The bad news is that he lacks experience on this surface and shoulders an equally-weighted 121 against proven older rivals.

But it did appear that he used as recent 7F sprint as a bridge to this after winning both priors under a similar dynamic. Jeremy Rose takes the call for McPeek, whose sprint-to-route runners click profitably at 20%.

Taking Gridley Here to win at 5-1 or greater and key-boxing exactas with redoubtable old pro Spa City Fever (5-2) and solid worker Notacatbutallama (7-2), the Toddster going turf to dirt.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1652

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 496-323

Amount Wagered: $3,304 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,408.60

Profit to Date: $104.60

Written by John Pricci

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Wednesday, December 03, 2014


Taking the Second Favorite in Close Contest


Winter is here, and if you doubt that, just take a look at the Big A entries. The track with a dot in the center of a square black box is back.

The feature, having drawn a small field, will go as the third race and, in keeping with the winter track theme, we will have the only entrant having the benefit of a winning race over the track...and a placing, too, for that matter.

That would be Lunar Surge (9-5), second choice on the early line to America (6-5), who likely will be favored ante-post as well; deservedly so. But we'll stay with 'Lunar,' a little more consistent and with a turn of foot that suits this surface well.

Taking Lunar Surge to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing with the favorite and the speedier Evening Show (4-1).

Number of Selections since 2007: 1651

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 496-323

Amount Wagered: $3,302 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,408.60

Profit to Date: $106.60

Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, November 30, 2014


Trainer Knows Best


HRI has entered into a promotional relationship with 123.gaming.com in which each Sunday we analyze the six races that comprise their unique Pick 6 contest wager, the current featured track being Parx Racing. The following is a profile of races 4 through 9. For the purposes of the Feature Race Analysis, in today's 8th race we're taking the value offered on Calamondin (9-2) to win, no price restrictions, and boxing the exacta with Jacobson ship-in Glickman (3-1).


FOURTH: 10-LUDO BAGMAN (3-1)
in from New York for Jacobson and getting Pennington, never has run this cheaply—barn a very worthy 35% effective with two class dropdowns; easily proves best if fit. 4-WOODY’S SHOW (5-1) showed improved speed when coming back in six weeks after gamely winning prior; has been well spotted at this level and late developing 3YO should continue to improve.

FIFTH: HOLD THE WIRE (2-1) returns at optimal distance for Nations, who’s been on a tear of late and is 32% profitable with its maiden claimers and 31% with its beaten favorites; drops, pole sitting and gets Vaz on the re-ride. JUST ACE (3-1), nicely drawn outside, has run well in both lifetime starts and was claimed by Trombetta, 19% effective with new acquisitions and profitable with class risers; has run well at the trip and McCarthy’s been on a recent tear.

SIXTH: 4-PINK HERO (4-1) showed marked improvement to win last at 6-1/2F, earning out top Energy Figure, well spotted at this level and easily repeats with similar effort. 3-TOUCH OF FAITH (12-1) second to the choice two back at this level, raced evenly and dully behind tougher in last; returns to proper level and switches back to regular partner Caballaro; 3YO still has some upside and looms value at early line odds. 6-SOPHIE’S SECRET (9-2), surface lover, drops to classes for LeBarron, 25% effective with beaten favorites, and switches to talented, live apprentice; could easily win this open scramble.

SEVENTH: 4-IRISH JASPER (2-1) in from NY following good late-finish third in starter allowances after breaking maiden here by open lengths in debut; earned excellent ascending figures that easily takes this reuniting with Carmouche.
2-LITE AND SWEET (12-1), from same NY race as choice, was also an open lengths maiden breaker on this track previously; excellent value at early line odds. I JUST WANNA WIN (3-1) beat weaker with authority in maiden debut Nov. 23 and was claimed by Pino, 29% effective with first-time acquisitions.

EIGHTH: 7-CALAMONDIN (9-2) was overmatched and out-posted by beaten off in Laurel (turf) Dash last out after earning top Energy Rating score on this surface previously; recent blowout for this was 6th fastest of 67 peers to work last week at Parx; scratched last night at Penn National in favor of this. 2-GLICKMAN (3-1) takes confident rise shipping in for Jacobson following daylight score over 40K claimers at Big A Nov. 12; won here three starts back and reuniting with winning rider Pennington.

NINTH: 5-IMAGE (2-1) speedy 3YO takes next logical step in conditions following lengthy wire score; has come to hand this summer and fall, returns here with good spacing on a mini-turn-back to winning distance for Lake; 21% effective
with attempting repeaters. 9-LIKE A DIVA (8-1) will be running late and benefits from shift outside; apprentice Ritvo riding for uncle Mike Petro in this spot. 10-DREAMINGOFAUNTLIZ (6-1) turns back to her most effective trip and likely to
be stalking, benefitting from shift outside.


RUNNING TOTALS

Number of Selections since 2007: 1650

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 495-323

Amount Wagered: $3,300 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,400.40

Profit to Date: $100.40

Written by John Pricci

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