Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, March 27, 2009
Bonnie Miss Field Notjustwhistlindixie
The three-year-old ladies take center stage in today’s Gulfstream Park feature, the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss at 9 furlongs. It features the surprising future book favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, Justwhistledixie (7-5).
Rather remarkably, this filly has had six lifetime starts and, on the Equiform scale, every race is better than the next. Of greater significance is in her last, the Forward Gal, she showed a new dimension by distributing her energy more efficiently. She returns on relatively short rest but has handled everything thrown at her thus far. She’s the most probable winner.
Gatorette (2-1) actually owns the highest figure and is undefeated in two starts. Never having raced farther than 7 furlongs, she’s bred to handle added distance. But this is a tough assignment considering she spots a significant amount of experience to the favorite. But talent can trump anything and she’s the X-factor here.
Casanova Move (3-1) is developing properly, showing incremental improvement, and her pedigree suits today’s route better than her main rivals. Foremost in her corner is that her off the pace style suit’s the scenario here, with the two faster fillies conceivably setting the race up for her late run. This race is a trap; lots of talent, small field.
Compelled to take the favorite to win, no price restrictions, and keying her first in exactas and trifectas with her two main rivals.
Running Totals: (390) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Plenty of Pesos With this Shipper
Toda’s feature at Gulfstream is a preliminary allowances that has drawn a few interesting three-year-olds going a flat mile. The main contenders are Phantom Rising (5-2), Uno Peso (10-1) and Run All Day (4-1).
Phantom Rising won his debut at 7 furlongs, usually a sing of inherent class, ran fast, and did it the right way. Bill Mott is en fuego, and he’s given this guy more than sufficient recovery time for his return. He could wind up the best of these good looking colts.
Uno Peso is the most interesting. He earned the fastest figure, and at a flat mile, over a wet Churchill track as a two-year-old. After a game second in his well meant season’s debut, he was run off his feet by faster in the Suncoast, both recent starts over the quirky Tampa surface. Now he’s back at a flat mile making his third start off the layup and reunites with maiden breaking partner, Julien Leparoux.
Run All Day is the house horse: a Stronach owned, Brian Lynch trained sophomore that looked good winning its last under today’s conditions, earning a competitive figure and distributing his energy more efficiently. He could easily repeat.
But we’ll throw deep with Uno Peso to win at 6-1 or greater and key him in exactas and trifectas with his main rivals here.
Running Totals: (389) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
The Grass is Greener at Gulfstream Park
In celebration of Florida Derby week--or until New York can card some interesting features once again--we’ll be taking a look at the Gulfstream Park headliner all week.
The featured eighth race is a wide open $50,000 claimer on the turf for older horses going a mile. What we don’t know is where the Irish rail will be placed. On Sunday, the last day of racing, they ran on the hedge with no rail and out 96 feet, the widest position on the course the rail can be placed.
(The rule of thumb is that the narrower the circumference, the better for the pace horses. Despite five inches of rain here late last week, the course was rated good on Sunday, which was right on the mark.)
On paper, today’s mile is a battle between two classy old pros vs. two younger and sharper rivals. Since either figures to be the better price than the “class” horses, we’ll err on the side of value.
Murch (6-1) has more class, if his Equiform figures are the measure, and is faster than Man Above (8-1). But the latter has made great strides for Eddie Plesa, who’s handled him like a good horse [schedule-wise] after beating $35,000 rivals last time out. Freshened, Man Above races best in that scenario, and owns tactical speed in a paceless race. The presence of position conscious Elvis Trujillo helps his chances.
We’ll go for the gusto. Taking Man Above to win at 6-1 or greater, [turf only] boxing him in the exacta with Murch, and adding the two class types, Wood Be Willing (3-1) and Ballast (5-2) to the trifecta mix.
Running Totals: (388) 119-81-53 Total Dollar Return: $826.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci