Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, February 27, 2009
Distorted Early Line
A rare weekday stakes at this time of year, the Feel The Beat, for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs.
If today’s racetrack isn’t biased toward speed, the race dynamics point to two horses, early line favorite A Rose for You (2-1) and second choice Distorted Passion (5-2).
If it were not for a tough trip in the recent Correction Handicap, A Rose for You would not be the early line choice. But she was forced to steady on the turn while Distorted Passion had clear sailing on the outside.
Both she and Distorted Passion figure to benefit from a projected duel between recent Contessa claim Labadeel with the speedy C. C. Lopez and Intentional Fever breaking from the outside in the short field with an edge on pace figures.
But it’s very difficult to make a case against Distorted Passion. She’s two-for-two on this track, and beneath Rajiv Maragh, could not be sharper seeking her fourth straight win, has worked very well since the Correction, and she, too, had a tough trip, blowing the break in that sprint but still getting the job finished.
We’ll take Distorted Passion to win at 5-2 or greater, an exacta box with A Rose for You, and we’ll include Labadeel and Awesome Ashley (uncoupled Pletcher) in our trifecta mix.
Running Totals: (371) 113-74-49 Total Dollar Return: $793.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, February 26, 2009
No Fooling: Take the Bluff
Today’s feature in New York, a non-winners of 3 lifetime allowances/optional claimer at a mile, has drawn a contentious group. The talent base for this afternoon’s eighth race centers around Irish Majesty (5-2), Numaany (4-1) and Take the Bluff (4-1).
Despite the class rise, Irish Majesty is a deserving favorite. Many of his best efforts have historically come on this ground, he won his last at a mile and 70 yards, a similar dynamic to today’s. Further, trainer David Duggan has been on a recent tear and apprentice Sheldon Russell seems to be improving day to day.
Late striding Numaany is all susceptible to trouble given his running style and was totally eliminated last out when stopped in the midst of his far turn rally. As a newly turned 4-year-old there is still ample room for development, he continues to train purposefully and retains leading rider Ramon Dominguez.
Take the Bluff, like Numaany a subtle class dropper, is remarkably consistent figures-wise. No matter the conditions, he always manages to run his race, is a three-time winner on this surface, and owns laudable tactical speed and kick. Position conscious Mike Luzzi should have little problem getting good position despite the short run to the first turn. He’s one of those rare 7-year-old horses that hasn’t lost a step to age. At least not yet.
Taking Take the Bluff to win at 3-1 or greater, keying him in exactas with today’s main rivals.
Running Totals: (370) 113-73-49 Total Dollar Return: $793.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Playing for Value with Strummer
Today’s feature to begin the New York week, a secondary allowances/non-winners of 2 for state-breds sprinting six furlongs could be a money maker if we get it right. A few of these could jump up to surprise and whatever horses closes as the favorite is still likely to be bettable odds.
We’re most interested in Strummer (5-1), King David (4-1), Scary Bob (10-1) and Please Impress (7-2). Each has a license to run very well here.
Strummer just missed after leading throughout in a $14,000 and was claimed by Oscar Barrera Jr., 20 percent efficient with new acquisitions. In Strummer he has a six-time winner over the track, aforementioned speed, and the ability to stalk from close range, which can prove the difference here.
King David ran almost as fast as these as a late season juvenile/early three year-old before going to the sidelines for nearly a year. With his added maturity from a barn adept with long layups (Linda Rice) and a series of bullet works, he should be ready to fire first time out of the box.
Scary Bob, despite the odds and his level of competition, should have run better than he did last out. But the good news is that the effort certainly didn’t drain any reserves and he’s come back to work very strongly since, a recent bullet half mile also proving 12th best of 154 at the distance for the week at Belmont. Dropping back into a claimer is a 30 percent move for Chris Englehart, who makes a switch to Eddie Castro for this.
And finally there’s Please Impress who was totally eliminated after getting shuffled back in the middle of the pack in a large sprint field on this somewhat narrow oval. He has tactical speed and kick, owns a win over the surface and gets a switch to leading rider Ramon Dominguez for Rick Dutrow whose outfit is 23 percent at the meeting. He projects to get a favorable trip given the dynamics here.
But we’ll stay with good current form and take recent claim Strummer at 4-1 or greater, keying him in exactas and trifectas with his three major rivals here.
Running Totals: (369) 113-73-49 Total Dollar Return: $793.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci