Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Monday, May 25, 2009
Famous Patriot More Than a Hunch
Don’t know many true racing fans that don’t love the Met Mile, myself included. And what this renewal might lack in box office milers it potentially makes up for at the wickets. This is one great betting race.
The most probable winner is likely Bribon (3-1) who’s done his best racing at today’s distance over either of New York’s downstate track. Winning the G3 Westchester, in which he earned a cyclical pace top, and his ability to make a huge middle move and sustain it, makes him every logical.
Alan Garcia fits him perfectly, there’s lots of speed in here, of course, and he’s nicely drawn outside and is fairly weighted. Trainer Bobby Ribaudo has done excellent work with this import after finding his proper niche and hole card. But we’re going for the gusto.
On paper, Famous Patriot (30-1) doesn’t class up. But he’s matured to the point as a 4-year-old where he can be competitive with this group on performance figures. His tactical speed and inside draw assures a ground saving trip and with the weight off today, a repeat of his last race gives him a puncher’s chance here at a huge price.
Taking Famous Patriot to win at 20-1 or greater, boxing him in the exacta with Bribon, and spreading in trifectas with Smooth Air (4-1), a classy 4-year-old and a natural at the distance, My Pal Charlie (8-1), who loves the trip and has been tested at the highest levels, and the very speedy Driven By Success (20-1), in light with Ramon Dominguez and nicely drawn outside for a rapid start.
(Talented 3-year-old Mr. Fantasy spiked a fever over the weekend and will be scratched).
Running Totals: (431) 129-89-58 Total Dollar Return: $876.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Fresh, Fit and Hopefully Dangerous
The time when you want to get a Carlos Martin trainee is when they are fresh, the longer the layup the better. In today’s all feature for state-bred fillies and mares going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf has drawn field. Meaning there’s a good chance that Sax In the City (5-1) will be bettable odds at or near the early line quote.
Her last win came at this trip, on this course, and Martin, a profitable 29 percent efficient in this scenario, will have her set for her best go. The main danger will come from Our Golden Dream (4-1), second off the layoff for Tom Bush following a promising return, and Paraiba (3-1), saddled by turf ace David Donk and ridden by Johnny Velazquez, a winner of two stakes in Chicago Saturday.
Taking Sax In the City to win at 4-1 or greater, keying her in exactas with her two rivals above. Trifecta players can add price shots Who Is Lady (15-1) and Debbie’s Fast Girl (20-1) to their mix.
Running Totals: (430) 129-88-58 Total Dollar Return: $876.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Does Shirreffs Know SOmething We Don’t?
After writing about Zenyatta’s season’s debut earlier today, I decided to await the Equiform figures to see how John Shirreffs fillies compared and you know what? Life Is Sweet has more than a puncher’s chance.
Except for one thing: Does this move make sense? Zenyatta, due to her inactivity, is beatable unless she comes with her ‘A’ race. Do I expect her to be wound as tightly as possible for her first start as a five-year-old? Come on.
Life Is Sweet’s performance figures have been marching forward since she turned 4, earning a 76-½ last time out. Off a 2-½ month freshening, it’s not impossible that she’ll improve again. And even if she doesn’t, she’s getting four pounds in weight.
As a 4-year-old last year, Zenyatta earned a better figure that Life Is Sweet’s last race on four occasions. Given today’s scenario and what both camps expect from their fillies, trained by the same man, their figures should be very close, given “Life’s” ‘A’ game and Zenyatta’s ‘A-’.
Taking Life Is Sweet to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Zenyatta in today’s Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park.
Running Totals: (429) 129-87-58 Total Dollar Return: $876.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci