Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, March 13, 2009
A Fugitive from Chalk Dust
The Friday feature is actually the third race today and despite the small field it’s highly contentious and open. These three year old allowance fillies are at various stages of development and are either returning on relatively short rest making their returns from lengthy layups or brief freshening, in short, a little of everything.
The temptation is to try to beat the favorite and we will, conceding that Flashing (8-5) is fastest and returning from a rough trip in a stakes for leading rider Ramon Dominguez at the very live Albertrani barn. Boleyn (5-2) is classy, having finished second in the Demoiselle last fall and also hails from a hot outfit, Todd Pletcher’s.
But while Karakorum Fugitive (3-1) is returning in three weeks and picking up weight to carry 122 pounds, there’s really no telling how good this undefeated New York bred is. She just might be good enough to make it three straight given the pole, tactical speed and her ability to overcome trouble.
Her recent bullet half-mile work in :47 1/5 was the fastest of 113 three-year-olds to work during a seven day period--and that includes colts. As we said, no telling how good, but we’re sure to find out a lot more here.
Taking Karakorum Fugitive to win at 5-2 or greater, boxing an exacta with Flashing, and adding Boleyn and McVictory (8-1), experienced and reuniting with Maragh, to the trifecta mix second and third.
Running Totals: (380) 116-78-51 Total Dollar Return: $810.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Judge William Hoping Justice Prevails
The thing about the luck Judge William (7-2) is having is the joke about if it weren’t for bad luck… Actually, it’s been no joke. He hasn’t been able to get a clear trip all this young year and when he didn’t toward the end of last year they were impossibly wide trips.
All this while facing better stock as his main rivals here; All In No Outs (3-1) and Icalzando (5-2) have been beating weaker, but doing so with authority and are undeniably two geldings on the improve.
Each enjoys a tactical race-shape edge over the late-running Judge William breaking from the extreme outside in this $50,000 starter allowance two-turner. But perhaps C. C. Lopez can find a way to save some ground, somewhere and get a clear-run opportunity.
On performance figures, All In No Outs is coming from the fastest race but appears susceptible to a regression. Icalzando is not quite as fast but the four year old is learning to distribute his energy more efficiently. But we’ll go for the value offered.
Taking Judge William to win at 3-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his main rivals here.
Running Totals: (379) 116-78-50 Total Dollar Return: $810.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
“They Call Me Mr. Madison”
The New York racing week begins with a highly contentious six furlong sprint, a “three other than/optional claiming” that attracted a gateful of fast horses from all the outfits that generally dominate this meet.
The one commodity there’s no shortage of here is early gas, making the stalker or late rally type the most likely race-shaper to succeed. Finding the right one among Shoptate (7-2), Mr. Madison (4-1), Lord Snowdon (4-1) and Accredit (3-1), the four favorites, will not be easy.
In Mr. Madison, you get a rider switch to Ramon Dominguez which is, of course, the good news and the bad. But the bad only relates to anticipated depressed odds.
As for the rest of it, what will be of most benefit is Ramon’s guile, timing, strength and often fatal penchant for saving ground. But sometimes you’re just forced to roll them bones.
Mr. Madison has improved since claimed into the Contessa barn last winter. It culminated with a strong performance figure performance two back that is as “fast” as anything on the page. His most recent trip wasn’t the easiest, either, but his best weapons are tactical speed and kick.
Taking Mr. Madison to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him in the exacta with Accredit, consistently the fastest on performance figures, and Trophy Road (6-1), one of the speed types coming off a “soft” win and nicely positioned outside beneath C.C. Lopez.
Running Totals: (378) 116-77-50 Total Dollar Return: $810.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci