Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, July 10, 2009
Great Betting Race--If You’re Right!
If there ever was a race demanding knowledge of off time odds, this preliminary allowances for 3 & up sprinting on the Belmont turf is it. So many can win, and you just know one or two of them are going to fall through the parimutuel cracks.
Six of the 10 can win this and it’s difficult to know which way to go. Great Emperor (9-2) has been racing well in main track sprints and did have a couple of promising turf tries two years ago at Saratoga. Fateh Field (3-1) makes his U.S. debut for a barn that’s 8-for-24 with first-Lasix runners and a running style better suited to American than Europe.
There’s the mare, Karakorum Electra (7-2), who’s extremely consistent, on this course, at this distance and in her competitive performance figures. Nothing Impossible (10-1), coming off a good figure win but may be eligible to regress; Taif (8-1), one for one on dirt, very fast, inexperienced on turf but bred for it. Winthrop House (4-1), obviously a turf lover but making his first start off the long layup.
And that’s where we’ll go. As a first time three-year-old, added maturity should enable Winthrop House to compete with this group. Kiaran McLaughlin, profitable for a career on grass, is 24 percent efficient with returnees of 90+ days, and taps go-to rider Alan Garcia. Tactical speed, an outside draw, and a fast-early rival directly to his inside could very easily yield a sweet, stalking trip. And the price figures to be fair.
Taking Winthrop House to win at 7-2 or greater, exacta key boxes with Fateh Field and Karakorum Electra, and as a money key to trifectas and superfectas with the other rivals named here.
Running Totals: (458) 138-95-62 Total Dollar Return: $967.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, July 09, 2009
It’s Not HBO, It’s Cable
Perhaps the secondary condition for today’s secondary allowances for older fillies and mares at a mile and a sixteenth on the Belmont grass is “for horses prepping for the Saratoga meet.” That might be a stretch but it sure looks that was for a couple of these.
There are two fillies capable of handling this group easily on their ‘A’ race, Cable (7-2) and Kristi With A K (4-1). It’s a battle of potential vs. demonstrated accomplishment.
Cable, scratched recently awaiting this, returns to the turf following a good effort on the Keeneland Poly earlier this spring. She’s 2-for-2 on grass, 1-for-1 at Belmont and undefeated at the distance.
Back in New York under Clement’s care--26 percent at the meet--for about a month and has been training steadily. This will be her first start on grass at 4 and she was, after all, good enough to overcome trouble to win her first two starts.
‘Kristi’ is faster on performances figures, reunites with Eibar Coa, a winner aboard the Tagg trainee last year, handles any ground and drops a notch from a recent restricted stakes. The trainer has won with six of his last 17 starts with six other in-the-money finishes.
But we’re taking the filly with the greater upside, Cable, at 5-2 or greater, and boxing her in the exacta with Kristi With A K.
Running Totals: (457) 138-94-62 Total Dollar Return: $967.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Hangingbyathread? Almost Looks Too Easy
Today’s New York feature is the Do It Fast overnight stakes for older New York-breds going nine furlongs on the inner turf course. This puzzle looks relatively easy to solve.
If you saw Hangingbyathread’s (7-2) last race then you know why. After racing very wide on the first turn from the extreme outside slip, he did manage to save ground on far turn. Problem number two. He was forced to steady for an eighth of a mile looking for room that never came.
And you know why after you note that trainer Carlos Martin, having an excellent meet, is a profitable 22 percent with third-off-the-layoff starters. And if you’ve noticed how well Jose Lezcano has been riding the local turf course, then you have reason number three. For a turf event, there’s sufficient early foot signed on, which also helps the cause.
Taking Hangingbyathread to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta key box with the classy early favorite, Mission Approved (5-2), and the second-off-the-layup My Man Lars (6-1), reuniting with Javier Castellano.
Running Totals: (456) 137-94-62 Total Dollar Return: $960.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci