Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Can’t Ignore Improving Horse for Course
Today’s Aqueduct feature, the Evening Attire, has drawn but five entrants, making it a rider’s race, which is always a head scratcher.
To compound the problem, three of the five are coming off lifetime best route efforts. The good news there is that improvement can be projected for only one of them, Barrier Reef (9-5). Of the competition, it appears Broadway Producer (4-1) is the likeliest of the remaining quartet.
The reason we believe Barrier Reef will improve is that the Equiform figure he earned last time out is indicative of a still developing race horse. The fact that he’s a newly turned four-year-old speaks nicely to that.
Trainer Tom Albertrani has won with three of his last nine New York starters and all were written by today’s partner, Ramon Dominguez, on quite a tear of his own these days. All three of Barrier Reef’s lifetime wins came on today’s winter surface.
Broadway Producer earned an excellent figure in his latest, his lone start at this distance. His trainer, John Terranova, is coming off what might be defined as a career year, batting 19 percent while showing a profit for all of 2008. He was worked quickly in New York since his latest Jennings score and attracts Eddie Castro.
Taking Barrier Reef to win at 8-5 or greater and an exacta box with Broadway Producer.
Running Totals: (346) 104-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $737.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, January 16, 2009
Newman a Newcolt for Amoss
The parade of starter allowance sprints as the Aqueduct feature race has been interrupted by the bitter cold. With New York canceling today‘s racing program, we’ll shift our focus to the Fair Grounds for a preliminary allowances feature on the turf for older horses at one mile, where trainer Tom Amoss appears to have his colleagues over a barrel in this spot.
Ordinary Newman (3-1) showed marked improvement off the barn change in his Fair Grounds try last out, making a strong surge to lead with a 4-wide run off the second turn but tired late. This turf course tests stamina greatly and the move might have been premature. Still, he beat 10 other rivals and has worked five times since that early December effort. With the turf skilled James Graham, he will take a lot of beating.
The interesting potential price play in here is Kiss My Kriss (6-1) who returns for a barn quite adept with horses coming off lengthy layups with a worthy 18 percent strike rate.
When last seen on grass, ‘Kriss’ was hindered by a slow pace, and today’s delayed turf decline line augurs well for his return to a winning surface and distance. With added maturity, the 4-year-old gelding could surprise this group at more than fair odds. Worth a saver at 8-1 or greater.
But we’re compelled to take Ordinary Newman to win at minimum odds of 5-2, and keying him first and second in trifectas with Kiss My Kriss, the Equiform-figure competitive Asmussen trainee, Logan’s Pride (4-1), the 1-for-1 Say the Word (6-1) with Robby Albarado on the re-ride, while keeping an eye on also-eligible Mad And Royal (8-1). Also as an exacta key with Logan’s Pride and Kiss My Kriss.
Running Totals: (345) 103-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, January 15, 2009
He’s Not Booing, He’s Saying…
Another starter allowances sprint masquerading as a feature race and half the six-horse field can win it; Forty Third Recon (5-1), Ghost Story (5-2) and Moose Man (3-1).
Gary Contessa looks like he’s up to his old tricks with Forty Third Recon, making a quick turnaround from his last start as he returns on eight days rest. This colt appears highly likely to improve on the bounce-rebound pattern, given the dreaded double top two starts back.
Ghost Story has a similar profile. His debut figure at Calder was excellent but came back with a sub-par performance in his local debut. By definition he is the fastest runner on Equiform figures but knowing which way he will go is not an easy read. The best guess is that he moves forward.
Moose Man’s last was excellent, a good figure score with excellent energy distribution, his space is excellent coming back fresh, and the Steve Klesaris outfit is hitting on all cylinders, both here and at the Fair Grounds. His tactical speed and outside draw in a short field provide an advantage, and a narrow edge here.
Taking Moose Man to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas.
Running Totals: (344) 103-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci