Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

It’s Two…Two Picks n’ One

Gulfstream Race 7: Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes: Two features on tap at Gulfstream today. Ultimately, we believe Dullahan will be the better 3-year-old, but don't see howe anyone will catch the main speed in the Palm Beach. Howe Great (8-5) is the one to catch, and beat, as Dale Romans continues his turf-to-dirt Derby prepping with Dullahan (2-1).

Race 10, G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes: One blanket would fit needly over the entire field; a really competitive heat. We're taking any value offered on Regalo Mio (8-1) and using Dayatthespa (2-1) and Northern Passion in the multiple pools, alternately saving and pressing.

Running Totals: (1040) 321-203-151 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, March 10, 2012

How Do I Win?  How Do I Win!

We'll be taking a look at a 3 year old stakes race at Aqueduct that is likely to have no bearing on the Kentucky Derby; the 6 furlong Fred 'Cappy' Capposela.

If you believe performance figures are the measure, then you're most likely to land on early line favorite Ancient Rome (5-2). This speedster had ascending figures sprinting until his connections decided to go long in the Gulfstream Park Derby. Experiment: Failed.

SInce then, Anthony Dutrow has regrouped, freshened the speedster, shipped him north a a return to his best distance, and tapped C C Lopez to partner. Lopez, as many know, is a speed rider extraordinaire.

But we'e going to opt for How Do I Win (7-2), a horse trainer Todd Pletcher has called disappointing; quite a mouthful for the future first ballot Hall of Famer. We noticed before that whenever he had his doubts about one of his runners, invariably he'd shorten that horse up, the tack here.

When last seen, he was setting the pace the Grade 3 Withers but proved no match for Alpha. Considering that that 3-year-old is the likely second choice to Union Rags in the Florida Derby, this is no disgrace. This sprint is ungraded and his pole position will allow Cornelio Velasquez a look at the action from close range. Turn backs are a Pletcher specialty, profitable despite a large sample in that category.

Taking How Do I Win to finish first at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in multiples with the favorite and the equally fast Chad Brown trainee, Beggarthyneighbor (6-1).

Running Totals: (1039) 321-203-150 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, March 09, 2012

Psst, Got a Hot One in the Feature

Another interesting turf route, a preliminary allowances-optional high class claimer for 3-year-olds going a mile and a sixteenth and, as per usual, there are many different ways to go.

It’s not that the favorite is worth trying to beat. He might not be, given the open nature of a field such as this, where the public’s choice could pay fair odds.

That would be Silver Max (3-1) who, when last seen, was chasing the pace in Algorithms’ Grade 3 Holy Bull. Even without the surface change, this would be a totally different animal. Prior to that, he was a special-weights maiden breaker.

Dale Romans’ colt never has taken a backward step on the Equiform scale while racing on turf and owns a wide edge over the group. The one nagging element is 5 runnerup finishes in 7 career starts.

We will go for the gusto here with Scorcher (12-1) who’s developing nicely on the figures scale--albeit not as fast—returns at a reduced level for the first time since claimed three back, picks up Johnny, blew out sharply at his Calder base and gets a couple of pounds from the favorite.

Taking Scorcher to win at 7-1 or greater, an exacta box with the favorite and adding sharp working Captain Webb (6-1) to the exotics mix.

Running Totals: (1039) 321-203-150 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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