Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Expecting a Small Fortune
There’s no such thing as a free lunch, but today’s nominal feature for sprinting fillies doesn’t look complicated at all. Of the seven entered in the starter allowances, three figure much better than the rest. Faithful One (5-2), Kiss And Fly (5-1) and She’s My Fortune (2-1) all appear all for a top try.
Faithful One has shown much improved speed with maturity and her last two performance figures indicate another forward move is coming. She has experience, good early speed and can finish. Seven weeks fresh and returning for top connections (Levine/Maragh), she’ll take catching.
Kiss And Fly is interesting in that her form is similar to the choice’s and owns more than one victory, after qualifying for this condition by breaking her maiden for a $50,000 tag or less. With Chad Brown profitable in his first start with new acquisitions, indeed, profitable for his young and promising career, and with Ramon Dominguez in the boot, she’s very tempting at early line odds.
She’s My Fortune, meanwhile, is the likely post time favorite and frankly deserves to be. She’s fastest on performance figures, comes back with good spacing (six weeks), and she fits the race shape ideally, able to stalk the pace comfortably on the outside in a small field before pouncing for Tony Dutrow and Channing Hill.
Taking She’s My Fortune to win at 2-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas and trifectas with her rivals here.
Running Totals: (343) 103-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Cammy Should Be the Choice
Today’s feature is the Soft Morning Stakes restricted to New York bred fillies and mares and appears to be a two-horse battle between the two favorites, the prolific By The Light (8-5) and the sharp invader, Cammy’s Choice (2-1). And if figures are the measure--which they are--the linemaker may have the wrong favorite listed here.
We won’t knock the favorite, considering her (11) 7-3-0 slate, her connections--Dutrow and Richard Migliore--and her style. A mid-race stalker with a favorable outside draw, she figures to get a closing jump on Cammy’s Choice when time comes to run down the speed, of which there is plenty here.
But Cammy’s Choice has significantly faster final figures, hails from a going concern, with trainer Eddie Lehman, who’s posted a lofty 38 percent strike rate and huge ROI figures. She’s had sufficient recovery time since both recent wins following the barn change and her Pha. Park-based rider ships up the turnpike for the ride. We’re taking her to run down the early favorite.
Backing Cammy’s Choice to win at 3-2 or greater and a cold exacta with By The Light.
Running Totals: (342) 103-70-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Taking Value in Contentious Busanda
Today’s Busanda Stakes for three-year-old fillies at a mile and 70 yards is an interesting affair in that much is to be learned about these lightly campaigned young ladies. Is Flashing (3-1) as good as her debut run, pedigree and white hot connections suggests?
What about the undefeated Fitz Just Right (8-1), going in the right direction and hailing from top connections serious enough to send her over to Aqueduct from her new Belmont Park base for a bullet workout over today’s track?
How about Missunitednations (8-1), coming from the same race as the 2-for-2 Fitz Just Right and from a barn that specializes in these non-graded events and showed a profit for all of last year? Or Southern Charmer (7-2), who appears to be sitting on a big effort from the pole position.
But is one sprint race enough of a career for Flashing to win this move up in class and distance? Why was Fitz Just Right campaigned out of town instead of staying at home for local connections? And will the outside draw and pace scenario all but eliminate Missunitednations from win consideration? Good questions all.
That's why Pumpkin Shell (6-1) is an interesting way to go. She developing very well, coming off two favorable Equiform patterns despite intervening turf races. She, too, is well positioned, and appears eligibility to slip between the parimutuel cracks in this contentious heat providing, of course, that Flashing isn't a special filly, which she just might be.
Taking Pumpkin Shell to win at 8-1 or greater, and exacta box with Flashing, and keying her first and second in trifectas with her rivals mentioned here.
Running Totals: (341) 102-70-46. Total Dollar Return: $705.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci