Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, December 26, 2008
Development Plus Trip Equals Repeat Win
We’ll stay out of town one more day and go back to the Bayou for a secondary allowances/optional claimer on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth. It has drawn a limit field and offers value potential in the sharp Woodbourne (6-1), who’s trying to make it two straight for the Mark Casse/Jesse Campbell team. The main danger is from the white hot Asmussen/Bridgmohan connections of Cobrador (4-1).
Woodbourne is an improving 4-year-old, showing the kind of laudably incremental improvement that's indicative of further development. It’s not insignificant that his latest performance figure, a lifetime best when going long, came over this course, at this distance. His tactical speed and inside draw should ensure another favorable trip and a repeat of his latest effort. Casse traditionally does well at this meeting and five weeks is sufficient recovery time for his runner.
Cobrador, meanwhile, is as fast as the choice, and there are those hot connections. But there is the matter of a fairly significant class rise and an outside position that virtually assures a wide trip into the first turn. If he proves best, he’ll need to do it the hard way.
But we're taking Woodbourne to win at 5-1 or greater, an exacta box with Cobrador, and in all trifecta money positions with Gangbuster (6-1), Cape San Blas (5-1) and Demeteor (9-2).
Running Totals: (332) 100-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $699.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Neon Lights Are Bright Everywhere
With Tampa dark until mid-week, we’ll return to NOLA for today’s feature from the Fair Grounds, a non-winners of 4 other-than allowances/optional claimer. It has drawn an extremely competitive field of eight crack sprinters going three-quarters with lots of questions.
There are returnees from layups, move-ups, drop-downs, most all from leading barn. In fact, Tom Amoss has two of the eight, uncoupled, and we happen to prefer the longer of the two, Truelyonbroadway, 6-1 on the early line.
No guesswork involved here. He’s making his third start off a layup, has had two strong five-furlong moves from his last start, and it just happens that Mr. Amoss is a profitable 31 percent efficient in this third-off-a-layoff scenario.
Jockey James Graham has been doing excellent work for Amoss recently and so they’ll try to continue that roll here. Nicely drawn outside, his style fit’s the race shape suitably and he loves this surface, the scene of his best two lifetime performance figures.
However, we don’t have any suitable ideas for multiple-pool wagers; actually we have too many.
Taking Truelyonbroadway to win and place at 4-1 or greater.
Running Totals: (331) 100-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $699.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, December 20, 2008
This Time, Asmussen’s the Hunter
Today’s feature at the Fair Grounds, featuring an All-Stakes 50-Cent Pick Five, is the Woodchopper for three-year-olds going a mile on turf. It marks te return of Preakness runnerup and Jim Dandy winner Macho Again (3-1). However, it will be his first start on turf. If he likes it, he’ll outclass this group easily. And Dallas Stewart is profitable off a layup and first-time turf. But the price will reflect all this.
The fastest horse on performance figures is Myboycharlie (5-2), a winner of half his eight starts, all on turf, and his last was on this course, at this distance. Jamie Theriot will ride him back for Cody Autrey, who’s currently at 35 percent for the meet. While he won his last on the pace, he won from off the pace in his native Ireland. The only knock, aside from the expected short price, is that he’s coming back on 14 days rest, a little quick.
Jimmy Simms (7-2) is slower but is developing beautifully for Steve Asmussen. Coming off an Equiform turf decline line (TDL), he poised to moved forward, is nicely drawn inside and gave way grudgingly after a stretch lone battle in the Grade 3 Commonwealth. He’s worked thrice since and stable rider Shaun Bridgmohan rides him back. Given the stiffness of the competition, you’d like to receive early line odds, which seems unlikely.
Taking Jimmy Simms to win at 7-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas with his two rivals here.
Running Totals: (330) 99-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $691.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci