Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Friday, June 27, 2008


Fourth and Long


Isn’t it amazing how seemingly every New York feature without a name on it is a grass race? I love turf racing, but this is boring, people taking the easy way out when carding the races.

Today’s is a toughie because you have fillies and mares of different ages and various classifications meeting in a preliminary starter allowances. We’ll concentrate on Bella Attrice (4-1), Fourth Chapter (12-1) and Debbie’s Fast Girl (6-1).

Bella Attrice has earned the best performance figures on a fairly consistent basis. She’s be making her second start off the Bruce Brown claim, batting 21 percent for the meet and even better on grass. She’s owned by a crafty outfit and both lifetime wins came at today’s 1-1/16 mile route. She does have a propensity to finish second, however.

Fourth Chapter is seeking her proper class following dominating maiden win vs. claimers last time out, her lone lifetime score coming at this route and over this course. She’s had five weeks recovery, important especially for fillies, and seems poised for a forward move. She’ll have to if she wants to handle better but the price should be square.

As a three-year-old, Debbie’s Fast Girl probably has the most upside, compiling a good record and showing improvement for Gary Contessa. She’s saddled with a difficult outside post but she leaves the barrier slowly, so she just might be able to drop over without significant loss of ground. Who better to make that happen than Edgar Prado?

As open as this is, were taking Fourth Chapter to win at 10-1 or better and keying her first and second in exactas with her contenders here. Trifecta players can add Anxiety (3-1) and House Quest (7-2) to their mix, using Fourth Chapter in all money positions. Per usual, grass selections are for turf only.

Running Totals: (226) 71-48-24. Total Dollar Return: $440.10 [win selections only] {Thursday results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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Thursday, June 26, 2008


Taking Promise Over Proven Form


A turf sprint feature. Well, isn’t that special? But it is intriguing, a few horses from top outfits that might have a future vs. a fairly hard hitting specialist. We’ll look at Perfect Casting (4-1), Hatta Fort (2-1) and Redefine (5-2) in the field of eight.

Perfect Casting has been competitive at middle-sprint distances and has been training very well at his Saratoga base for layoff ace Christophe Clement, virtually as a first-time 4-year-old. Turning back to three-quarters should help his late kick and Garrett Gomez has a knack of timing late moves just right. But he will need pace help.

Hatta Fort makes his second turf start for Saeed bin Suroor, a profitable scenario, and earned the race’s best figure sprinting on the Keeneland Polytrack, which should augur well. It will, however, be his first start at today’s distance but won a listed stakes at 5 furlongs in Europe. As a maturing three-year-old, he gets the best of the weights here.

Redefine has been a remarkably consistent turf sprint, first for John Parisella and now for Tony Dutrow. He just missed in his season’s debut after making a sustained run, losing when out-bobbed at the finish line. A horse for course, he’s 6 for 14 on Belmont grass and 0 for 18 doing anything everywhere else. He earns good figures with consistency but has tended to regress off strong efforts.

Taking Hatta Fort to win at 8-5 or greater, keying him in exactas and, to a lesser extent, trifectas, first and second with his two main rivals here.

Running Totals: (226) 71-48-24. Total Dollar Return: $440.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Wednesday, June 25, 2008


What’s Your Horse’s Sign?


The NYRA racing week begins with a turf feature--again with the grass feature--only this one is an allowance event--a secondary allowances/optional claiming $50,000--at a mile and a sixteenth on the Widener turf course, that would resemble a stakes anywhere else. We’ll confine our analysis to Leo (3-1), part of the Kiaran McLaughlin trained entry, and Winstrella (9-2), making his turf debut.

Leo is in for $50,000, having won in this condition two starts back, in which he earned a top performance figure. While performing well last out, he was seriously hindered by a very slow pace. With enough speed signed on here, hard-hitting five year old can revert to rating tactics, taking advantage of his inside post and switch to position-conscious Rajiv Maragh.

Winstrella is the unknown danger. On his best day, he has proven faster than these and is bred on both sides of his pedigree for the surface switch. He drops from the stakes ranks for his four year old debut for the Pletcher barn, 22 percent effective with layups of greater than 90 days and a profitable 24 percent efficient with horses making their turf debut. Nature and nurture is a powerful combination.

Taking Leo to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with Winstrella. Trifecta players can include Prince Rahy and the Frankel entry in their mix.

Running Totals: (226) 71-48-24. Total Dollar Return: $440.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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