Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Bert’s Too Kinky for the Devil
Today’s featured starter allowances at Philadelphia Park offers an opportunity to beat a favorite and that’s what we’ll try to achieve.
As far as I can tell, the best thing Black Tie Only (2-1) has going for him is the barn, Guadalupe Preciado’s. He’s been competing at this level for a lengthy period and only broke through last race with a win on a sloppy track.
His record and pedigree indicates he indeed likes a wet racetrack and there‘s a 50% chance of showers this afternoon. At the price, we‘ll roll the dice.
We’ll take either of two horses coming out of the same sprint which are stretching to a more optimal distance, and either is faster than the choice and both figure to rebound in this spot.
Dapper Devil (7-2) happens to be bred for wet and comes off a sharp, too-late rally in that sprint. He has the best figures in the race by a narrow margin and reunites with Kendrick Carmouche. He might even go favored at post time.
Meanwhile, Bert’s Too Kinky (9-2) owns a wet track win under similar conditions on this track, has won at the distance, switches to Frankie Pennington and goes for a barn that’s profitable with its stretch-outs and has won with this horse thrice off the barn switch, a DQ notwithstanding.
Taking Bert’s Too Kinky to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with his rivals here, an extra ticket with Dapper Devil.
Running Totals: (628) 197-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,370.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, April 10, 2010
It’s a Beautiful Thing
Today’s G3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct is not the most compelling edition ever but one that could offer exceptional value. Checking the late odds absolutely will be critical in this spot.
Clearly, She’ll Be Doggone (5-2) is the fastest three-year-old filly and she is versatile. But accepting a short price at a longer distance while coming off a huge top effort, even with the recovery time, is a poor percentage play.
Touching Beauty (3-1), making her second start off a layup with the proper style, a favorable outside draw and a pedigree suited to the stretch out, should insure a good trip, the winning tack being a strong turn-rally. Her performance figure looks potentially explosive in this scenario.
Taking Touching Beauty to win at 3-1 or greater and key boxing her in exactas with steadily improving Speightful Affair (5-1) and the favorite. Trifecta players can add price shot Roman Chestnut (15-1) to their mix.
Running Totals: (627) 196-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,358.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, April 09, 2010
The Vision is Karelian
Today’s feature at Keeneland Race Course is the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile which is always a competitive event. Today’s renewal is no different.
Clearly, Court Vision (6-5) is a worthy favorite. He likes the mile distance, owns superior performance figures, proven class and perennial Keeneland riding power, Robby Albarado.
In fact, part owner IEAH Stables has entered Pictural, an uncoupled 30-1 stablemate who doubtlessly has been entered to ensure an honest pace. Sometimes, however, overmatched “rabbits” can play into the competition’s hands. They could be the case here.
Karelian (5-2) is a remarkable hard-hitting old pro. After setting a soft pace recently, he held with determination to staff off champion Gio Ponti, has been briefly freshened, and now returns at his best distance.
A winner of half his eight starts at the distance with two seconds, he was beaten a scant nose by the favorite in the G1 Shadwell Mile here last fall.
Coming into this in virtually the same form, and given Karelian’s tactical speed with a switch to Julien Leparoux, he should get first run and hang on for the score, getting four pounds.
Taking Karelian to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Court Vision.
Running Totals: (626) 195-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,351.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci