Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Pete Plus Maturity a Winning Parlay
An interesting feature today at the Big A, considering it’s a preliminary allowance sprint for state-breds going six furlongs.
The favorite, Doast, figures to be a tough out. An 4-year-old gelding son of Wheelaway, he’s making his second start off a rapidly run return and going back to the surface over which he broke his maiden at first asking. Cornelio Velasquez takes the re-ride for Linda Rice, having a very solid fall and early winter here.
But we’ll take whatever value is offered on Pete’s Parley, who also returned from a lengthy absence with a good third, a race in which the second finisher not only came back to win its next start but beat Le Bonne Ville in the process.
That one won its preliminary allowances over Doast, so that these horses come into this on virtually the same footing. Further, the performance figure ‘Pete’ earned virtually paired up with his lifetime best, an indication that with its recent added maturity, it’s poised to run at least that well, perhaps better.
Taking Pete’s Parley to win at 3-1 or greater, key-boxing him first and second in multiples with Doast and Zealous Boy, which has been toughened in stakes company, won its only start on today's surface and is picking up Ramon Dominguez.
Running Totals: (775) 248-161-105 Total Dollar Return: $1,729.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Monday, December 06, 2010
Party in the Parx
Today’s Parx feature is interesting, the Valley Forge Stakes, an overnighter at six furlongs with several of these shipping in from all over the East Coast.
Clearly, Temecula Creek (2-1), by way of Aqueduct and Rudy Rodriguez, will get most of the play, a high percentage outfit that has a good record with its shippers, a horse that fits the speedy race shape and gets Cornelio Velasquez heading south on the Jersey Turnpike to take the re-ride.
Given that he figures to be overbet and the fact he’s coming back on short rest, we’ll look elsewhere and settle on Gattopardo (3-1). The concern with him is that he’s making his second start in two years off a winning return.
But we was given nearly six weeks recovery time for an outfit that‘s 18 percent in second-off-the-layoff scenarios, he’s worked rapidly for this and, graded stakes placed, might hold a class edge. He owns tactical speed and kick and was second in both Parx starts going long; the shorter distance should help in that regard.
Taking Gattopardo to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Temecula Creek.
Running Totals: (774) 248-161-105 Total Dollar Return: $1,729.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, December 03, 2010
Nicole H. Deserves Another Chance
Today’s Big A feature is the Garland of Roses Handicap at six furlongs for three-year-old fillies and up. On paper it appears to be a battle among the top three fillies in post order: Love That Dance, Nicole H. and Tar Heel Mom.
Love That Dance (5-1) is a now filly that’s come into her own this fall for the streaking Ben Perkins barn. She owns good tactical speed and can kick, which will come in handy from her pole position.
The obvious class of the group is Tar Heel Mom (5-2), a graded stakes winner who owns a clear class edge and laudable win slate, but will be making her first start off a lengthy absence due to an injury. But with the trainer winless at the meet and an expected short price, we’ll look elsewhere.
And will find Nicole H. (3-1) who, despite training very well for her appearance in a restricted stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, never had a chance to show what she could do.
She virtually lost all chance at the start after breaking tardily from an inside post in a speed laden sprint field. Trapped behind runners and racing inside on a cuppy, outside-closer’s surface, she simply never got untracked.
She’s worked well since returning home and Ramon Dominguez has accepted the re-ride, a positive sign for the beaten favorite. Would be surprised if she led this group throughout assuming a clean break.
Taking Nicole H. to win at 5-2 or greater and key-boxing her in exactas with her two rivals here.
Running Totals: (773) 247-161-105 Total Dollar Return: $1,723.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci